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  4月16日,新奥“玄龙-50U”球形环氢硼聚变装置实验取得重大突破:实现高温高密度百万安培(兆安)等离子体电流。

  这是目前国际上首次实现百万安培氢硼等离子体放电,标志着新奥引领的球形环氢硼聚变研究跃升至高参数运行区间,同时也标志着新奥“玄龙-50U”装置跻身国际球形环先进行列,迈出氢硼聚变商用化重要一步,具有里程碑意义。

  新奥“玄龙-50U”装置在“玄龙-50”基础上用时2个半月于2023年底完成升级;2024年1月24日实现首次等离子体放电;2024年8月15日等离子体电流超过装置预期指标;2025年聚焦高参数氢硼等离子体放电研究。

  本次实验采用高浓度氢硼燃料,解决了球形环等离子体电流高效产生的技术难题,验证了高参数氢硼等离子体的可实现性,推进了氢硼等离子体运行模式的发展,为磁约束聚变发展提供了重要支持。

  下一步,新奥聚变研发团队将继续基于“玄龙-50U”装置,冲击更高氢硼等离子体参数,开展氢硼聚变反应实验,为下一代氢硼热核聚变实验装置“和龙-2”奠定基础。

  美联储从去年9月开始启动了本轮降息周期。去年年底,美联储共降息三次,累计降息100个基点,目前美国联邦基准利率已降至4.25%~5.5%。今年,由于特朗普发起的关税战导致美国经济陷入衰退的风险增大,美联储可能会延续降息周期。然而,特朗普的关税战同时也引发了美国物价飞涨,许多超市商品价格大幅上升,美国居民苦不堪言。维持通胀稳定是美联储最重要的货币政策目标之一,因此在关税战尘埃落定之前,美联储不敢贸然降息,因为降息可能会进一步推高物价,造成较大的通胀压力。

  如果关税战能够尽快回到谈判桌并达成结果,改变当前高关税的状况,美国国内物价有望回落,美联储可能会开启降息闸门。否则,美联储目前不敢贸然降息。从目前情况来看,美联储在年底之前降息两次的概率较大。如果按每次降息25个基点计算,降息50个基点的可能性较高。因为当前美国的基准利率仍然较高,对美国企业和居民来说负担较重,再降50个基点可能是相对合理的降息幅度。但如果关税战能够尽快结束,美国物价能够回落,也不排除美联储降息三次的可能性。因此,今年美联储的货币政策存在极大的不确定性,根源在于特朗普的关税战,目前解决路径还不明朗,最终解决方案仍存在较大不确定性,这也给美联储主席出了一个难题。

  当前,A股市场已经经历了关税战的第一轮冲击。在所谓的“黑色星期一”之后,随着国家队大力入市以及投资者为国护盘的决心,市场已经逐步走出回升态势。然而,关税战后续仍存在不确定性,可能会造成市场震荡,但相信再次出现类似“黑色星期一”的可能性已经不大。一方面,大家对此次关税战更有信心,相信我们占据主动地位,特朗普最终会寻求通过谈判达成一致,解决贸易争端,使中美贸易回归正常化。另一方面,A股的优质资产处于历史低位水平,估值较低,对全球资本具有较大投资吸引力,因此A股进一步下跌的空间可能非常有限。

  当前,我们正面临居民储蓄大转移的局面。随着楼市投资机会明显减少,许多居民将会加大A股市场的配置比例,通过购买股票或基金入市寻找资产增值机会。在楼市黄金时代结束后,资本市场的黄金时代有望展开。目前,我国居民存款高达五十多亿,随着资本市场逐步回暖并产生赚钱效应,将吸引越来越多的居民储蓄向A股市场转移,这也将为A股市场带来估值回升的机会。因此,大家应坚定信心,相信国运,在低位布局优质的A股股票或基金,抓住居民储蓄大转移的机会,这是当前最好的投资策略。

  从关键数据来看,海外资金仍在从美股流出,寻找估值洼地。A股和港股无疑是全球资本市场的估值洼地。从去年开始,资金已逐步从美股流出,进入A股和港股寻找机会,今年以来这一趋势愈发明显。此次关税摩擦并未导致海外资金改变对A股和港股的看法,资金流入趋势仍在延续。一方面,国内出台了一系列提振消费、拉动经济的政策,提高了经济增长预期;另一方面,中国在科技创新方面仍具有较大领先优势,这提升了全球资金对A股和港股优质资产的看法。

  在当前存在不确定性的情况下,从进攻角度看,投资者可以重点布局以人形机器人为代表的板块,抓住科技股的机会,国产替代和自主可控将成为重要的投资主线。从防守角度看,投资者可以配置相当比例的高股息红利股以及具有稳定分红的消费和医药股,以获得稳定的回报。投资者的风险偏好不同,选择也会不同。建议投资者可以按照一定比例进行配置,例如一半配置科技成长股,一半配置高股息和消费等稳定增长板块,这样进可攻、退可守,在市场波动时能够获得更稳定的回报。

  黄金也是投资者可以在组合中配置的资产。随着美元超发,黄金的长期走势向上。目前,国内金价已突破1000美元每克,国际金价突破3200美元每盎司。虽然短期内黄金价格已有较大涨幅,可能面临获利回吐和波动加大的压力,但从长期来看,国际局势动荡、美国政策不确定性较大、美元指数回落以及国际避险需求提升等因素,都将推动黄金价格上涨。包括中国央行在内的各国央行增持黄金的配置比例,也有望进一步推高黄金价格。因此,黄金长期趋势依然向上。

  近年来,我一直建议投资者在投资组合中配置一定比例的黄金类资产,这一策略目前依然有效。投资者可根据自身偏好和投资习惯,选择实物黄金、纸黄金或黄金ETF等多种形式进行投资,也可以多种类别同时投资,这样既便利又能实现保值增值。总体来看,黄金资产相对于其他资产具有一定的对冲风险功能,能够增加投资组合的夏普比率。

  在关税战背景下,美欧股市出现较大回落,特别是美股首当其冲,这也是特朗普“搬起石头砸自己的脚”的体现。美股本身泡沫较大,巴菲特曾幽默地说,任何一个大的泡沫都有一根针等着它,DeepSeek无疑是刺破美股科技股泡沫的第一根针,特朗普的关税战又补了一针。因此,美股出现大幅回落,国际资本从美股流出寻找新机会,这反而给A股带来了更多增量资金,也给港股带来了更多资金流入。

  由于A股与欧美股市所处位置不同,欧美股市多数处于历史新高位置,而A股经过三年下跌,从去年9月24日之后才开启一波上涨,估值上仍处于历史低位区域。在关税战背景下,我们有足够的应对措施,在未来的关税谈判中也将处于主动位置。我们也可能会出台更多政策拉动投资、带动消费、提振国内需求,这将大大增加全球资本及国内资金对A股市场的信心。相信A股市场今年有望走出与海外市场不同的行情,A股走出独立行情的条件是具备的,特别是在居民储蓄大转移的背景下,未来将有更多资金进入A股市场寻找机会。

  (作者系前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理)

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