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转自:刘晓博说财经

原创刘博团队

01

房地产,重回舞台中央

近期,有两件大事深刻影响着中国乃至全球经济的未来走向,其潜在效应将持续10至20年。

第一件,是国际贸易格局的深刻变化。

以美国为首,全球范围内的关税壁垒呈现再度抬头的趋势。尽管具体政策仍在博弈与变动中,但这一动向预示着二战后形成的、以自由贸易为导向的国际经贸秩序正面临重大调整,全球化进程遭遇新的挑战。

第二件,是中国应对策略的战略性转向。

面对外部环境的不确定性,中国明确将战略重心向内调整,提出了构建“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局。

与之配套,中央发布了系列旨在扩大内需、提振消费的文件,强调要着力提高居民收入,全面启动国内消费,倾力打造一个强大的国内市场。

为何要倾力打造强大的国内市场?

放眼全球,消费是经济增长的核心引擎。以美元计价,美国的消费市场规模约占全球总额的30%。相比之下,拥有14亿人口的中国,目前的整体消费体量大约仅为美国的一半左右。

如果能有效激发内需潜力,将中国的消费占比也提升至全球约三分之一的水平,那么中国不仅能更好地抵御外部风险,还将在全球新的经贸格局中赢得更大的主动权和话语权。因此,启动并壮大国内消费市场,至关重要。

那么,启动内需的关键抓手在哪里?

细读中央关于扩消费的文件,房地产行业被赋予了极其重要的角色。文件明确提出要稳定和激活房地产市场,将其视为提振内需、畅通国民经济循环的关键一环。

中国家庭财富高度集中于房地产(估值约350万亿),稳住并适度激活这部分存量财富,哪怕只释放一小部分流动性,其产生的财富效应就能有效提振消费信心,是对冲外部压力、拉动内需的最有效抓手。

信号已经明确:今年,房地产市场将在“促消费、稳增长”的国家战略中扮演关键角色。

2025年全国两会政府工作报告首次将“稳住房地产市场”纳入经济社会发展总体要求,同时各省市的两会均将房地产“止跌回稳”作为目标。

从深圳探索“房票”安置、升级“以旧换新”,到南京全面取消限售并提供“以旧换新”补贴,再到苏州推出“三低一宽”的创新信贷支持……

尽管一线城市目前尚未出台突破性的重大利好,但市场普遍预期,未来将有更具实质性、甚至可能超出当前预期的刺激政策逐步落地。

房地产的重要地位凸显,房企作为关键载体需承担起驱动消费的重任。

然而,当前多数房企尚未准备好迎接这一转变,仍在传统思维与新政策导向之间徘徊调整。

02

下半场是谁的主场?

楼市下行期,房地产企业难,民营房企更难。

曾几何时,中国房地产百强榜单上,民营企业占据了80%的席位,拿地金额也高达八成。

而今天的现实却是:百强拿地榜中仅存11家民营房企,拿地额占比萎缩至8.5%。

过去几年,已有约40多家大中型民营房企陷入债务危机。即便那些暂未“爆雷”的企业,基于对未来不确定性的考量,也大多选择“零拿地”的保守策略。

目前,仍能稳健经营的大中型民营房企已屈指可数,其中包括:星河地产(深圳)、龙湖、滨江、美的置业(佛山)、新希望地产(成都)、大华地产(上海)

这些幸存者不仅是企业自身韧性的证明,更为整个行业的转型提供了宝贵经验。

保护和扶持这些民营房企,不是为了所谓的情怀,而是为了维护市场的多元化生态,给消费者留下更多选择,也为行业未来发展探索更健康、更可持续的路径。

从这个意义上说,这些幸存的民营房企,既是市场优胜劣汰的结果,也是行业未来希望的所在。

深入研究这些幸存的民营房企,你会发现一个特殊的存在:星河地产。

星河地产可能不是规模最大的民营房企,却是走得最稳的企业之一。金融机构对星河的评价是“四个没有”:没有上市,没有美元债,没有表外融资,没有金融理财。

这种近乎“保守”的财务策略,使星河成为行业中少见的“三道红线”全绿企业,也让其连续四年获得AAA主体信用最高评级,成为首家获此评级的民营房企。

财务的稳健只是表象,背后更深层的原因是什么?

答案其实就藏在企业的价值观:赚快钱or赚慢钱?

近几年,城镇化率接近饱和,人口红利逐步消退,房地产市场已进入低增长时代。而传统房企还抱着“旧饭碗”,普遍采用“销售型”思维,追求高周转、快速开发、快速去化和资金快速回笼。

借鉴美日等发达市场经验,在高增长时期过后,地产开发行业的利润率将逐步趋于合理,甚至低于其它行业平均值。以美国市场为例,以开发业务为主的企业ROE仅在4~6%之间,只有那些经营不动产和服务业务的企业才能保持10%以上的ROE。

因此,中国房企必须做出价值观的重塑,逐渐转向“自持型”思维,做运营商而非纯开发商,从赚开发的“快钱”转向赚运营的“慢钱”。

星河能在行业寒冬中保持韧性与活力,最根本原因在于星河已成为房地产“运营”领域的顶尖玩家。

无论是住宅地产、商业地产,还是产业地产,星河都以运营思维为核心,构建了可持续发展的商业模式,真正践行了“做五百年,不做五百强”的长期主义理念。

星河控股集团,1988年成立于深圳,旗下现有产业、地产、商业、资本、物业五大板块,业务涉及产业运营、地产开发、商业管理、酒店服务、股权投资、物业服务等多元领域,员工规模逾9000人,布局深圳、广州、上海、南京、苏州、成都等30余座城市,总资产超千亿元,保持AAA主体信用跟踪评级,连年绿档企业,在行业中树立了优秀的企业形象和社会公信力。

下面几个典型案例可以看出星河的运营思维:

以商业深圳福田星河COCOPark为例,星河没有“建成即出售”,而是坚持长期精细化运营,十余年来持续进行品牌迭代更新、消费场景创新,始终保持着深圳地标性商业综合体的地位。

2021年至今,星河还与国际零售巨头Costco达成战略合作,先后落地上海浦东Costco、深圳龙华Costco,极大提升了区域价值和商业活力。

以住宅星河时代为例,星河没有“交付即撤离”,而是在十年间持续整合名校、COCOPark商业、双地铁口、大运配套、生态公园等资源,将体育、商业、住宅、名校、交通、生态聚合一体,不仅实现居住价值的提升,也让项目保持更高的溢价能力。

而在产业地产领域,星河创新性地做起了“房东+股东”角色。以深圳星河WORLD项目为例,星河既作为“房东”提供优质产业空间,又通过多种投资方式成为入驻企业的“股东”,全方位支持产业发展。

项目十年间已吸引华为、中国人寿、三菱电机等2293家企业入驻,包括25家500强企业、46家上市企业及69家专精特新小巨人企业,创造产值300亿元,吸纳就业5万人。待全部运营后,项目将实现税收超100亿元,产值逾1000亿元,吸纳就业人口超7.5万人。

深圳星河WORLD

基于以上实践积累,星河地产有望在中国楼市的下半场扮演更加重要的角色。

在城市更新领域:星河凭借二十余年深耕积累的专业化更新团队,已成为这一领域的先行者。

面对城中村、旧工业区、旧住宅区及旧商业区等多元复杂的土地类型,星河提供从规划咨询到合作开发、管理输出的全链条城市更新服务,这与两会强调的“城市老旧小区更新”战略方向高度契合。

在住房迭代升级领域:响应“好房子”政策导向,星河早已构建起至境系、至臻系、至悦系、至善系、至信系等精品产品线。

实景图

亿翰智库发布的“2024中国房企超级交付力TOP30”公开榜单中,星河地产赫然在列。“金杯银杯不如客户的口碑”在星河广泛流传,也始终践行。仅深圳和东莞2个城市就交付了4855套,东莞璟悦公馆、珠海湖山春晓、南沙东悦湾等多个项目实现了100%集中交付率。

当大多数房企在市场寒冬中拼命压缩成本时,星河却坚定走高品质路线。这种逆势投入为星河赢得了市场口碑,2024中国房地产开发企业综合实力50强星河位列第37位,产品力20强位列第18位。

在国家政策向“稳楼市”和“好房子”双轮驱动的新时代,星河这类坚持运营、不赚快钱、追求高品质的房企,将迎来真正的发展机遇期,成为房地产市场转型升级的中坚力量。

03

这里凭什么逆势热销?

当多数房企还在思考如何“活下去”时,星河已经开始思考如何“活得更好”。

3月30日,星河又一次在深圳龙岗引爆了“现象级”热销盛况。

星河·盛境瑞府开盘,现场人声鼎沸、座无虚席,认购喜报频传,成交量节节攀升,首开即劲销破百套。放眼当前市场,能拿到这个成绩的项目屈指可数。

自3月8日样板间开放以来,星河·盛境瑞府便成为龙岗楼市的红盘焦点,每日持续飙升的来访量、样板间络绎不绝的看房人潮,无不印证着购房者对星河品牌的高度认可。开盘后,项目更是蝉联片区周销售冠军,热度持续不减。

这种市场热度并非偶然,而是源于星河在大运片区的持续深耕。从星河时代到星河智荟,再到星河盛境系列,星河形成了一条完整的产品迭代线,每一步都在稳步提升区域价值。

盛境系列自2021年入市以来,凭借过硬产品力和投住价值赢得市场口碑:

2021年一期开盘引爆市场,入围比1:1.16,去化率超7成;2022年二期376套房源开盘即售罄、公寓2024年上半年龙岗销售TOP2;2023年底,盛境御府开盘人气爆棚;2024年连续多个季度成交量位居龙岗TOP2,目前已完美售罄。

多个项目连年热销的市场表现,离不开项目的品牌价值和全方位配套优势:

交通上,盛境瑞府位于三条地铁线交汇处(14号线、3号线、规划中的21号线),周边道路网络完善,约800米直达水官高速;教育资源方面,深圳北理莫斯科大学附属龙岗园山学校已在项目旁揭牌,周边规划有多所学校,为家庭提供了丰富的教育选择;商业配套上,盛境二期自带约4.4万㎡商业空间,1-5公里范围内有包括星河COCOPark等在内的成熟商业。

实景图

作为盛境系54万㎡大城的收官之作,星河·盛境瑞府在产品细节上做出全面升级:如约21米长入口迎宾界面、约11.7米高奢阔门楼层层铺垫归家礼序;“邻里+健康”园林理念打造联动运动草坪和亲子社交空间,让社区成为生活的归属。

效果图

此次推出爆款产品:建面约83-113㎡臻装3-4房,其中约83、87、89㎡户型实现3房2卫,约107㎡户型实现4房2卫,户型方正,高使用率,全屋精装标准也再度升级,精选日立、科勒、多玛、方太、欧派等国际一线大牌,将品质感延伸至生活每一处。

盛境瑞府的卓越产品力也获得了业内的权威认可。在克而瑞深圳发布的2025年深圳“小阳春”产品力榜单中,星河·盛境瑞府实力上榜,荣获“品质美宅作品”称号。

在楼市下半场,星河·盛境瑞府不仅是一处住所,更是一种生活方式的选择。这里有城市发展的红利,有品牌赋予的价值,有生活所需的便利。当稳楼市和好房子成为时代主题,星河·盛境瑞府无疑是更好的诠释。

同时,为回应市场的热烈反响,4月11日,星河·盛境瑞府热势加推建面约87㎡“王炸”户型。

该户型不仅做到了实用的3房2卫格局,更拥有环幕视野和南向三开间格局,总价仅需276万起,有兴趣的购房者可前往实地了解,亲身感受星河产品的魅力。

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