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  汇通财经APP讯——密歇根大学最近的消费者信心调查显示,在特朗普总统旋风般的关税政策下,一年后的通胀预期将达到了1981年以来的最高水平。

  波士顿联储的一项新分析发现,美国人预计关税成本将反映在他们的收据上是正确的。

  研究人员依据的是基于去年12月底对400多家中小企业的调查结果,该调查探讨了对关税的预期和计划。由于对大多数美国的贸易伙伴征收更高的关税,受访者预计成本将上升,并计划以涨价的形式将这些成本转嫁给消费者。

  分析得出的结论是:“企业计划通过涨价将预期中关税引起的单位成本变化转嫁给客户,这种成本传递的程度在不同的关税情景下会有所不同。”

  企业表示涨幅取决于关税情况。有趣的是,与高关税(25%税率)和不确定(10%税率但可变)情景相比,他们预计低关税(10%税率)情景下的涨幅最大。

  关税是进口货物的公司在货物在入境口岸清关时支付的一种税,它不是由出口公司或出口国家支付的。企业有几个选择来抵消额外的成本,比如吃掉成本或与供应商谈判,但最常见的策略是将成本转嫁给消费者。

  密歇根大学的调查发现,消费者预计一年后的通胀将上升6.7%,高于上月的4.9%,未来5至10年的长期通胀预期也从3月份的4.1%上升至4月份的4.4%。纽约联储一项新调查也发现类似但不那么极端的预期。

  图:一年通胀预期飙升至1981年以来的最高水平(预期中的通胀率变化,深黄线指未来一年,淡黄线指未来5年)(来源:美国密歇根大学)

  在特朗普总统取消了“解放日”关税的较高水平,并宣布对科技产品实施部分豁免后,凯投宏观(CapitalEconomics)在最近的一份报告中计算,美国进口产品的总体有效关税税率约为22%,低于上周的27%。

  尽管最近白宫的关税立场有所软化,但特朗普总统的贸易议程已将美国进口商品的关税税率提高到一个多世纪以来的最高水平,这推高了通胀预期,降低了美国经济增长预期。

  波士顿联储表示,进口商预计关税导致的成本上升需要约两年才能完全反映在价格上。一个尚不清楚的变量是,对美国进口商品征收关税将如何影响国内企业的应付价格,这对通胀前景有进一步的影响。

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