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  汇通财经APP讯——最近的信心危机动摇了美国经济和世界市场,金价随之上涨。虽然之前的恐慌是由全球贸易秩序的大规模变化所驱动的,但这一次可能会侵蚀美国例外论的核心:全能的美元和美联储的独立性。

  上周三(4月16日),美联储主席鲍威尔出人意料地直接评论了特朗普政府政策的潜在影响,并就美联储的独立性发表了迄今为止最强硬的声明。上周四,特朗普总统不失时机地发起了猛烈抨击。

  Barchart的高级市场分析师纽森上周四表示,鲍威尔的言论非常重要,因为这位美联储主席明确表示,他不会等待特朗普来确定形势,并试图迫使联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)采取行动。

  他说:“很长一段时间以来,我一直认为鲍威尔主席很好地处理了局势。因此,当他昨天出来说,‘看,这将导致通胀,我们不能继续谈论降息,我们必须开始谈论加息的可能性,’他是绝对正确的。在我们知道通胀会上升、美元每天都在贬值的情况下,你不能降息。我们知道通胀又回来了,你不能通过说‘你不能加息,你必须降息’来阻碍央行。他们不会这么做的。你必须有这种灵活性,这是对抗通胀的唯一途径。”

  纽森表示:“上一次,由于贸易战和愚蠢的关税政策,当通胀开始飙升时美联储被迫不加息,美联储犹豫了。这一次,他不会那样做了,因为我们看到发生了什么。从2016年到2020年,通胀没有任何中断。太迟了,马离开了马厩,然后整个拜登政府都在努力让通胀再次得到控制,让美联储能够开始降息。”

  他说:“鲍威尔上周三的立场是,总统想说什么就说什么,他不会胁迫美联储。”他补充说道:“他没有按照特朗普的意愿管理美联储。特朗普表示,他将对所有的利率决定拥有最终决定权。这没有发生,也不会发生。鲍威尔主席昨天已经说得很清楚了。”

  纽森表示,鲍威尔就最高法院关于特朗普是否有能力更换独立机构高级职员的悬而未决的裁决分享了他的观点,这一点也很重要。这位美联储主席没有说他会等着最高法院的裁决,而是先发制人地说,这可能对美联储没有影响。

  鲍威尔称:“我们的独立是一个法律问题。国会在我们的法规中规定,除非有正当理由,否则我们不能被罢免。国会可以修改法律,但我不认为这有任何危险。美联储的独立性得到了两党和参众两院的广泛支持。”

  他补充说:“我不认为最高法院的裁决将适用于美联储,但我不知道,我们正在密切关注这种情况。”

  纽森表示,这与鲍威尔一贯的观望态度截然不同,除非他事先咨询了美联储的律师,否则他不会发表这些声明。

  纽森说:“有趣的是,他正在寻求法律建议,我相信他会得到有关宪法的法律建议,但现在的不同之处在于,我们有了一位不受宪法或美国政府三权分立结构阻碍的美国总统。在他看来,他不必听从包括最高法院在内的法院的任何命令。”

  正因为如此,任何干涉或解雇鲍威尔的企图都将构成一个关键的法律考验。

  “那将是一场法律斗争,这将在未来四年发生。”

  纽森同意,从鲍威尔的声明来看,他似乎希望提前采取行动,但只有时间才能证明美联储能否保持其独立性,独立于行政部门。

  他说:“令人担心的是,总统控制了国会的某一部门,不是所有的总统,使这位总统对利率有最终决定权。因此,当他站出来说,‘我想要降息’时,你就会知道,他的傀儡美联储主席和理事们会按照他的要求行事。”

  特朗普周一继续攻击鲍威尔,称他是“一个大失败者”,并要求这位美联储主席采取不同的先发制人行动。

  纽森说,他期待在5月3日即将举行的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司会议上听到巴菲特的讲话。他说:“几乎不可避免的是,在他的问答环节,巴菲特总是说,‘押注美国’。我完全不同意这种观点,在我看来,全球投资界的其他人士也不同意这种观点。”

  经过数周的贸易关税、支点和反支点,纽森表示,全球市场正在对美国做出自己的判断。

  他说:“美元继续下跌,而黄金继续上涨。这告诉我,坦率地说,世界其他地方已经对美国失去了信心,不再把美国当回事了。没有理由,因此,虽然美元应该走高,但我们仍然看到全球投资者抛售美元,买入其他货币。他们对美国失去了信心,我认为这也将对美国股市产生影响。”

  鉴于目前的环境,纽森认为,金价可以在已经大涨的基础上继续上涨。

  纽森表示:“我仍然认为明智的投资资金会转向黄金,不管是3000美元、3300美元还是4300美元,都不重要。我认为这是一个避险市场,不是原油,也不是债券之类的东西。就期货而言,对我来说仍然是黄金。黄金仍统治避险市场。”

  现货黄金日线图来源:易汇通北京时间4月22日11:41现货黄金报3493.22美元/盎司

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  摩根士丹利发布研报称,中国联通(00762)首季度服务收入同比增长2.1%;净利润同比增长5.6%,部分受惠于会计变动。大摩将中国联通2025至2027财年收入预测上调1.6%至1.7%;EBITDA预测则下调4.2%至4.5%。另外,该行将2025财年标准化每股盈利预测下调4.3%;2026财年下调1.6%;2027财年上调2.7%。大摩亦将中国联通目标价由8港元上调至9.5港元,给予“增持”评级。

  韩国产业通商资源部周二表示,到2033年,韩国将建立有史以来最大的海上风电集群,作为扩大可再生能源使用的努力的一部分。

  该风电场将建在位于首尔西南约300公里的全南新安海域,由10个风力发电机组组成,总装机容量为3.2吉瓦(GW)。

  韩国产业通商资源部称,该风电集群的发电能力将超过两座核电站。

  英国自动驾驶技术初创公司Wayve周二表示,已在日本建立了一个新的测试和开发中心,这是该公司首次进军亚洲市场。

  Wayve表示,新中心将使其能够加快与汽车制造商合作开发人工智能驱动的驾驶软件,并支持东京及周边地区的技术测试和开发。

  Wayve在一份声明中表示:“通过整合来自日本复杂道路环境的训练数据,Wayve将加强其基础模型的泛化,并增强对全球市场的适应性。”

  日本第三大汽车制造商日产本月表示,计划2027财年推出的下一代自动驾驶技术将采用Wayve提供的软件。

  由软银集团支持的Wayve也在英国、德国、美国和加拿大测试其技术。与依赖详细数字地图和编码的传统系统不同,Wayve的技术利用安装在车辆外部的摄像头传感器进行机器学习。

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