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快科技4月16日消息,权威机构TechInsights今天发文表示,关税的指数级增长正对智能手机行业的供应链产生重大影响。

在智能手机制造业于中国扎根多年后,将制造转移至美国这一可能性面临着基础设施、熟练劳动力与组装自动化能力的巨大挑战。

其中苹果受影响最深,目前苹果每售出一部iPhone16Pro(256GB)可获利约400美元,净利润率约为36%。

对iPhone生产成本进行细分可知,不断攀升的关税税率将大幅加剧苹果应对财务冲击的难度:在关税上涨54%的情况下,iPhone价格将从1100美元涨至1350美元。若关税上涨145%,价格可能会飙升至1850美元。

将组装业务迁回美国也并非可行之策——为覆盖必要的设施和设备投资,设备价格将不得不大幅上涨。

作为参考,苹果目前的iPhone标准生产速率是每分钟760部——以美国制造业的现状,根本无法维持这一生产速率。

TechInsights预计,苹果将加速从中国撤离制造业的进程,并可能会提高即将推出的iPhone17系列的价格,以抵消潜在影响。

iPhone如果在中国市场的价格上涨,或为华为创造份额增长空间。

从全球范围来看,关税可能会推高智能手机价格,尤其是美国市场的智能手机价格。

手机厂商或加速向印度、越南等地分散组装产能,巴西可能崛起为新制造中心。

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