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刘禅站在板凳上曹安琪拉:的未来发展方向及策略探讨
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  来源:华尔街见闻

  美元今日大跳水,除了受关税政策的冲击,还可能受中国央行不“降息”、日本对谈判措辞微妙转变的影响。分析指出,当前市场和特朗普政府对美元下跌的解读截然不同,前者认为是“美国例外论”终结导致美元储备货币地位动摇,后者则认为美元强势本就损害出口商竞争力,其下跌或是加速资本“脱虚向实”的手段之一。

  美元“反常”走弱,这是否意味着长达一个世纪的“美元霸权”就此瓦解?

  美元近期“跌跌不休”,周一,美元指数加速下跌,日内跌超1%,盘中接连跌破99、98两个重要关口,为2022年3月以来首次。

  而对于近期的美元下跌,市场普遍认为,美国政府的政策正在损害美元的国际地位,加剧了美元贬值的预期; 特朗普政府内部则认为,美元强势是美国的负担,正在导致货币市场扭曲,给美国企业和工人带来不应有的负担。

  有分析进一步指出,美元资产的地位是削弱还是丧失,将是决定特朗普成败的关键。

  中国“按兵不动”、日本释放信号:美元仍有下行空间?

  除了美国关税政策的冲击,美元还承受其他多重压力。

  中国人民银行公告显示,4月LPR连续第六个月维持不变,显示其对经济增长动能的信心,对美元构成一重压力。

  据媒体报道,日本首相石破茂最新表示,称希望将正在进行的日美关税谈判打造成“美国与其他国家谈判的典范”,并强调“零和博弈的结果不会成为其他国家的榜样”,暗示达成对两国都有利的协议。

  此番措辞的微妙变化,加上日元作为避险货币的特性,可能会进一步推高日元,间接打压美元。

  与此同时,高盛近日警告称,美国治理和制度的负面趋势正在侵蚀美国资产长期享有的“特权”,这正在拖累美国资产回报和美元,除非逆转,否则这种情况可能会在未来继续存在。

  此前对美元持乐观态度的高盛现在预测, 未来12个月内,美元兑欧兑日元将跌至1美元兑135日元,相当于在当前水平上再贬值6%。

  市场vs特朗普政府:对美元下跌的解读截然不同

  市场对美元下跌的解读与特朗普政府的态度形成鲜明对比。

  据报道,分析师和投资者们普遍认为,美国对盟友的态度转变和贸易保护主义政策正使美元储备货币的地位产生动摇。

  华尔街担心,特朗普政府的政策正在加速美元的衰落,可能导致全球金融市场动荡。PGIM固定收益部门联席首席投资官GregoryPeters表示:

  前纽约联邦储备银行行长BillDudley则认为,美元甚至可能走强。

  按照Dudley的看法,关税将削弱美国经济并加剧通胀,而对其他地区经济增长的影响可能更为显著。这意味着其他央行可能会比美联储更积极地降息,并可能导致这些国家的货币兑美元走弱。

  4月20日晚间北信源发布2025年度向特定对象发行股票预案。

  本次向特定对象发行股票采用竞价方式,本次向特定对象发行的定价基准日为发行期首日,发行价格不低于定价基准日前20个交易日公司股票交易均价的80%。

  本次发行的股票种类为境内上市人民币普通股(A股),每股面值为人民币1.00元。本次发行的股票将在深圳证券交易所创业板上市交易。本次向特定对象发行的股票数量按照募集资金总额除以发行价格确定,且不超过本次发行前总股本的30%,即不超过434,947,226股(含本数)。

  本次募集资金总额不超过人民币47,733.04万元(含本数),在扣除相关发行费用后的募集资金净额拟投资于信源密信安全AI基座项目、智能应急响应平台研发项目。

  分红缺失与实控人减持套现

  北信源的股东回报体系呈现“双输”格局:中小投资者长期零分红,而大股东通过减持套现攫取利益。

  在股东回报上,相比同行,奇安信、启明星辰等同行近三年分红率均值达30%,而北信源分红金额不足其1%。

  公司自2012年上市以来累计派现1.17亿元,远低于同期股权融资额(12.62亿定增+IPO募资3.9亿)。近三年(2022-2024)因未弥补亏损达4.07亿元,连续停止分红。

  需要指出的是,大股东疑似通过减持精准套现。据公开资料,实控人林皓在2024年4月以4.53元/股转让5.01%股份,较当日收盘价(4.51元)溢价0.4%,套现3.29亿元。此举恰逢公司净利润转亏前夜。

  基本面羸弱?

  北信源的经营基本面已陷入“收入萎缩-成本激增-现金流恶化”的恶性循环。

  一方面,公司的收入结构脆弱性疑似暴露。具体数据上,2024年政府客户收入下滑33.25%,金融客户收入下降28.31%,两大主力市场营收占比从63%降至52%;

  另一方面,公司成本或暴露相关管理问题。数据显示,军工客户成本激增134%,政府项目成本上升67%,导致营业成本同比增加33.19%,远超收入降幅(-24.31%)。

  此外,公司经营性现金流连续两年为负,2024年净流出7261万元,同比恶化200.87%;

  应收账款周转率0.89次:账期长达409天,5.17亿元营收中2.1亿元为应收账款,存在坏账风险;

  融资依赖度攀升:资产负债率36%,但流动比率1.36、速动比率0.96,短期偿债压力凸。

  注:此文为AI工具生成,不构成任何投资建议。

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