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几天没C你是不是痒了好多水:让你的思绪在纸上自由飞翔
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几天没C你是不是痒了好多水:让你的思绪在纸上自由飞翔

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  短短11个交易日,4月至今,南向资金已累计净流入超1500亿港元。

  尽管恒生科技指数已从3月7日阶段性高点回调超20%,但是逆势抄底资金却在加快逢低买入。对此,多家私募机构负责人强调,港股A股都严重超跌了。现在需要的是保持耐心,市场永远在不确定性中孕育机会,要聚焦企业的长期价值。经过本轮下跌,一旦短期恐慌性冲击结束,结合国内外经济刺激的预期,那些被低估的优质企业,也将迎来均值回归的时刻。

  回调是买入机会

  “尽早布局。”私募机构深圳日斗投资管理有限公司董事长王文在社交媒体上谈及中概股回归时公开表示,与其让美国券商挣交易、托管、融资的钱,不如回香港,港股通大扩容,繁荣香港市场。

  近期随着关税战的升级,中概股回流香港的话题再度成为市场焦点。根据统计,当前在美上市的中概股超100家,总市值逾6万亿港元。其中,高盛筛选出的27家“符合回流条件”的企业,覆盖电商、金融科技、生物医药等多个领域。拼多多、满帮等新兴科技巨头因高成长性备受关注。

  然而,自4月2日美国宣布超出市场预期的关税政策以来,恒生指数已经累计下跌9.26%,恒生科技指数累计下跌11.30%。而恒生科技指数自3月7日达到阶段性高点后,目前已回调超20%。估值层面,在市场大跌过后,恒生科技指数动态市盈率已从3月中旬高点的19倍,快速回落到14倍,再度降至过去3年均值以下。

  深圳君茂资本总经理潘亚军认为,尝试对关税战此类事件进行精准预测,并妄图依据预测如踏浪一般准确踏准节奏的行为是徒劳无益的。当外界的不确定性陡增时,就要寻找企业的经营商业模式、竞争格局和经营业绩仍能进行确定性测量的公司,这些企业因为宏观波动和市场的流动性危机出现大跌时,往往是机会而不是风险,这可能是我们可以重点去把握的。

  容光投资总经理卢安平认为,A股、港股去年四季度以来的走牛方向不会改变,但节奏和幅度会受到影响。股市回调是买入机会。当前,A股、港股都严重超跌了,尤其是持有优质低估以及对美国贸易敞口小的股票组合。美股很贵,中国股票很便宜,基本面和估值这两个最重要的东西都没有变,那就不必要担忧。 

  相聚资本总经理梁辉认为,关税的短期冲击,不会影响到企业的长期价值,并且关税影响并没有短期所表现出来的那么大,只是短期的不确定性带来了市场剧烈的波动,而投资关注的核心点是公司的长期价值,这是底层的逻辑。

  科技板块仍是抄底资金的重点目标

  4月份以来,南向资金继续呈净流入状态,集中买入大型科技股。4月16日,南向资金当日净流入78.94亿港元。Choice数据显示,4月1日至4月16日,11个交易日,南向资金合计净流入1540亿港元,创下2021年以来同时间段新高。

  特别是,在跌幅较大的上周,南向资金抄底更为踊跃。单周净流入总计952.36亿港元,仅4月9日当天,南向资金净买入港股356亿港元,创造了有史以来日度净买入额新高。而港股科技板块成为资金涌入的重点目标。

  在指数振幅较大的4月7日、8日、9日,科技板块净流入资金分别达到了31.8亿元、41.3亿元、29.6亿元。其中,规模居前的恒生科技指数ETF(513180),在半个月时间,份额增加65亿份,资金逆势抄底迹象明显。

  “我们对未来有信心,当前投资保持相当仓位。”梁辉强调,面对关税冲击而出现的调整,有相当一部分公司经评估发现受到影响并不大,所以是有长期投资价值的。一方面市场估值比较强的吸引力,同时更重要的是对中国是有信心和保持乐观的,因此保持相当的仓位水平就很有必要。

  梁辉认为,受益于技术进步,市场风险偏好下降更为有利的一些品种,比如AI。之前公司持有AI方向的资产较多,主要是恒生科技的龙头公司。而AI仍然是非常好的一个配置方向。中国科技创新优势在两点,一是优化二是落地,就是在很多丰富的场景中应用落地。中国互联网的业态比美国更丰富,相信这个过程还会演进。

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