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@港股研究社原创

作者丨南鹞

2024年美的集团、顺丰控股纷纷二次上市融资的举动,拉开了一个新的序幕。

继晶澳科技、宁德时代、纳芯微、紫光股份、蓝思科技等知名A股上市公司先后宣布赴港计划后,日前于2022年在A股上市的全球PCB专用设备供应商——大族数控也宣布拟发行H股股票并在香港联合交易所主板上市。

据统计,今年截至3月下旬国内已有21家A股公司宣布赴港双重上市计划,其中半导体、新能源、高端制造是重点领域。

在众多头部企业的引领下,“A+H”上市的阵营正在持续壮大。

而从更深层次的层面来说,这高度符合当前国产自主化、高端化以及全球化的大逻辑。为此,我们基于高质量企业正在顺势加速主动贴合外面的世界的大背景,尝试去分解大族数控的经营质量。

众所周知,2022年开始消费电子市场出现了需求疲软、下游客户库存去化周期延长等困境,整个行业及细分产业增速均显著放缓。其中PCB市场规模更是在2023年出现阶段性的大回调。‌

期间,大族数控作为典型的PCB设备供应商受产业周期影响很明显。

资料显示,公司主营印制电路板即“PCB”专用设备的研发、生产和销售,产品主要涵盖压合、钻孔、曝光、成型、检测等PCB生产关键工序,拥有业内最广泛的产品线。

2022年、2023年两年期间其营收、净利双双大降,分别从2021年的40.81亿元、6.99亿元逐年降至2023年的16.34亿元、1.36亿元,直至2024年才成功控制下滑态势并强势修复。

日前大族数控在宣布赴港计划的同时,也公布其复苏势头十分强劲且持续的最新年报及季报。

2024年全年公司营收同比激增104.56%至33.43亿元,重新逼近2021年40.81亿元的历史高点;同时增速也远高于同期全球PCB产业产值5.8%的整体增长率。

盈利修复则更突出,全年实现归母净利润3.01亿元,并以122.20%的增速跑赢营收增速。

对于业绩增长的原因,大族数控解释称主要受益于技术迭代+消费复苏驱动电子终端产业营收快速增长,带动全球PCB产业市场规模上升及下游客户资本支出增加,从而拉动公司PCB专用加工设备订单的增长。全年其主要产品产销两旺,专用设备产销量分别增超79.53%、116.83%。

而更值得投资者青睐的是,进入2025年后公司修复以及增长态势依旧很强劲。最新季报显示,2025Q1大族数控持续保持高速增长态势,报告期内营收、归母净利润分别在2024年修复的基础上同比增长27.89%、83.60%。

事实上,从成长性维度出发,与产业周期同频,大族数控的增长还在后头。

大族数控的爆发式增长,本质上是踩中了全球PCB产业技术升级与需求结构变化的双重红利,尤其是AI技术刺激制造端产品迭代周期的加速。

在产业链层面上,PCB一直被誉为“电子产品之母”,其在电子产业中的重要性不言而喻。同样地,AI产业链作为典型的电子产业,其发展也离不开先进PCB的支撑。

由此可以预见,随着AI算力、高速传输、汽车电动智能化等成为热门的电子产业进化方向,又有阿里、腾讯、英伟达等科技龙头纷纷宣布“AllinAI”,并真金白银地大笔投入AI产业,PCB赛道接下来必然将以更高的技术附加值迎来新一轮产业周期成长。

按照产业链收入传导逻辑,当产业开启技术、产品迭代新周期,设备厂商往往都是最先实现商业兑现的。

因为更高的技术附加值以及产品质量,意味着PCB厂商需要投入更好的专用加工设备优化其产线,才能收割这一轮技术先发红利。为此,PCB厂商不得不持续加码投资高多层板及高多层HDI板、大尺寸IC封装基板、类载板等生产设备。

事实上,市占率领先的大族数控已经在率先享受AI驱动PCB产业升级带来的部分红利。

这一点初步可以透过大族数控2024年至今的业绩增速以及产品表现窥探到。

数据显示,2024年全球电子终端市场中,AI服务器及数据存储贡献了最大的产值增长,全年增速高达45.5%,规模超千亿美元。

期间,需经多次压合、微小孔加工等复杂工艺制成的高多层板及高多层HDI板用量暴增,驱动大族数据的钻孔类设备全年以超六成的收入占比同比激增156.79%,稳住核心增长极地位。

相对来说,收入贡献占比次之的曝光类、检测类设备收入增速相对较慢,分别为79.91%、38.76%,但也可以看出公司在关键工序设备上的全面突破。

值得一提的是,为了适应更高的技术要求,去年大族数控推出了如十二轴自动化机械钻孔机、四光束CO2激光钻孔机等多种创新型产品,并已获得部分客户认可,达到批量市场推广水平

工艺层面,公司在压合工序环节推出了层压系统,获得了汽车电子、AI服务器电源等领域知名客户的订单,厚铜PCB压合技术提升;在钻孔工序方面,其开发的新型CCD六轴独立机械钻孔机搭载3D背钻及钻测一体技术已获得行业多家高多层板龙头企业的认可及正式订单;在曝光工序方面,新推的高解析激光直接成像设备加速了对传统曝光技术的替代。

无疑,在以AI技术为新驱动的当下,国产制造业的高端化趋势已是不可逆,大族数控在其中也是全力顺应主流发展方向。甚至这或是国产大族数控们进一步赶超海外巨头的稀有机遇。

当然这需要整个产业链共同完成,既需要上游设备玩家优化出更高性能的设备产线、中游PCB厂商保质保量地供应高阶PCB产品,也需要国产终端品牌愿意尝试采用,形成真正的良性循环,整个国产自主化市场才能打得开。

回顾中国半导体产业的资本演进轨迹,长期以来行业发展主线聚焦于技术自主突破与国产替代进程,资本市场布局也主要集中在A股市场。

这种战略选择既源于本土产业链培育的现实需求,也与早期国内资本市场结构特征紧密相关。

然而随着国内企业自主技术积淀的深化,并基于国内市场对孵化AI高端产业高度支持的大环境,不少具备国际竞争力的制造龙头开始将目光投向更具全球化视野的港股市场似乎也在情理之中。

这种资本路径的切换,本质上折射出中国高端制造业的双重蜕变:

一方面,美的集团、顺丰控股等先行企业的实践证明,当本土企业在核心技术、市场份额、管理体系等维度达到国际一流水平时,港股市场的多元资本供给、成熟定价机制和全球投资者基础,能够为其打开更广阔的成长空间;

另一方面,这意味着中国高端制造的全球化大船正在筹备全方位扬帆起航,通过港股平台对接全球资本,既是实力的印证,更是全球化战略的主动布局。

具体到PCB设备领域,这种资本升级逻辑具有更强的产业适配性。作为典型的技术-资本双密集型行业,港股市场特有的"全流通"机制、便捷的再融资渠道和国际投资者认可度,将为玩家在先进封装设备、全球化产能布局等领域提供更强动力。

正如大族数控此次在宣布赴港上市计划时所表示的,意在深入推进全球化战略进程,加速境外资本平台建设,提升公司在国际市场的综合竞争力,包括融资能力以及品牌全球影响力。

而全球产业的高速增长则是公司此次加码全球化的催化因素之一。

据Prismark预测,2023-2028年全球PCB市场将以5.4%的复合增长率迈向千亿美元规模,驱动因素包括AI算力基础设施及智能终端的需求爆发,以及汽车电动化、智能化带来的车用PCB需求激增。

同时,大族数控也在出海路上尝到甜头。2024年,大族数控海外营收增超3倍有余,营收占比提升至10%以上。这种增长既源自供应链"China+N"策略下的产能转移,也源于公司深度绑定臻鼎、欣兴等国际龙头的全球化客户布局。

赴港上市成为大族数控加速推动“高端化+全球化”双战略的关键一步。

站在全球电子产业链重构的历史节点,大族数控的港股征程不仅是企业个体的资本选择,也是又一个层面的中国高端制造业从"国产替代"走向"全球竞争"的缩影。

随着更多像大族数控这样的"隐形冠军"登陆国际资本市场,中国制造业的全球化叙事正在从产品输出、技术输出,迈向资本与品牌的全方位出海。

这种演进轨迹,既需要企业在技术研发上保持"十年磨一剑"的定力,也离不开资本市场体系的协同进化,而最终的产业价值,必将在全球产业链的深度融合中得到重估与升华。

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