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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  川投能源(600674.SH)控股股东四川能源发展集团(原川投集团与四川省能源投资集团合并设立)计划在未来12个月内通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股份,金额不低于5亿元、不高于10亿元,资金来源为自有或自筹资金。增持价格不设上限,将视资本市场情况择机实施。此次增持前,增持方及其一致行动人已合计持有公司2,440,810,525股,占总股本50.07%。

  公开数据显示,四川能源发展集团于2025年2月正式设立,意在整合四川省两大能源国企,即承接川投集团与四川能投全部资产。在合并完成后,川投能源的控股股东由川投集团变更为四川能源发展集团,实际控制人仍为四川省政府国资委。

  作为水电头部上市公司,川投能源股价表现强势,2019年-2024年连续创下新高;今年以来股价累计跌幅2.43%,依然跑赢指数。

  四川能源发展集团此番出手增持,除短期刺激股价外,还有深意。

  顺应政策

  4月8日起,多家四川国资背景上市公司,包括川投能源、五粮液(000858.SZ)、四川路桥(600039.SH)等在内的多家企业陆续披露增持或回购计划。其中五粮液集团继2024年6月完成5亿元增持后,再次宣布增持5亿至10亿元;四川路桥启动2亿元回购,并设立市价150%的回购价格上限等。

  金融层面的支持也在降低这些增持、回购措施的成本。根据披露,四川辖区16家上市公司通过银行融资渠道获得24亿元再贷款支持,用于回购与增持。科创企业亦积极参与稳定行动,如中无人机(688297.SH)率先公布2亿元回购计划,极米科技(688696.SH)等持续推进原定增持进程。4月8日,成都银行与其两家国有股东启动14亿元增持计划,成为四川本轮增持中单笔最大规模的案例。

  川投能源的此次增持还有些特殊。由于股权变更,发起增持的主体成立才2个月。2025年2月,四川能源发展集团有限责任公司的正式设立。从历程来看,此次重组自2024年11月29日首次公告筹划,历时近三个月完成工商登记与交割手续,效率和速度都称得上“神速”。根据披露,四川能源发展集团及其一致行动人原已持有川投能源50.07%股份,本轮增持计划如若完成,将提升其持股比例至更高水平,从而增强其在未来经营战略、资本运作、治理安排等方面的主导地位。

  从产业整合角度看,川投能源在集团旗下承担“水电核心平台”的定位。拥有稳定水电资源、明确分红政策和可拓展的光伏业务,是集团对外展示资产质量的重要窗口。适度增持,也可视作对该平台基本面与估值的认同,同时为后续可能的资产注入、资本协同预留空间。

  增持动作也可能服务于集团整体资产证券化的战略考量。按照国企改革“三年行动计划”与《“十四五”能源发展规划》要求,地方能源国企需通过整合提升资本市场活跃度与透明度。四川能源发展集团增持旗下上市公司,正是提高市值管理能力、推动资本运作机制市场化的重要实践。

  基本面有保底

  从资产结构到运营能力,川投能源近年来在财务指标和业务表现方面持续稳健,具备一定“底仓”性质的投资特征。

  去年前三个季度,川投能源营业收入10.87亿元,同比增长6.48%;归母净利润44.22亿元,同比增长15.10%。在电力板块整体盈利趋缓背景下,公司保持稳定增长反映出其经营质量较高。

  支撑川投能源基本面的核心在于其控股水电资产的稳定输出能力。2025年一季度,公司控股企业累计完成发电量9.60亿千瓦时,同比增长21.98%;其中水电发电量9.06亿千瓦时,同比增长20.32%。水电发电业务毛利率高、运营成本低,是公司收入和利润的基本盘。在传统能源价格波动较大的当下,水电成本稳定提供了良好的财务对冲。

  另一方面,川投能源旗下光伏业务也表现出增长。2025年一季度控股光伏企业发电量达0.54亿千瓦时,同比增长74.19%。这一板块虽尚未成为利润主体,但展现出良好的成长潜力。在四川能源“水光互补”资源结构基础上,公司具备拓展绿电业务的天然禀赋。

  水资源端来看,川投能源背靠雅砻江流域与长江上游水电资源优势。根据相关测算,雅砻江水电2025年一季度完成发电量222.30亿千瓦时,同比增长13.2%;长江电力发电量达577.72亿千瓦时,同比增长9.5%。截至2025年3月底,雅砻江与长江流域蓄能分别为103.8亿度与187.7亿度,同比提升28.75亿度和40.48亿度,后续发电潜力依旧充足。高蓄能水平提供了水电在二季度乃至三季度持续释放电量的支撑。

  此外,从估值与分红角度看,川投能源具有一定的“收益型”配置属性。公司长期维持稳定分红,根据历年公告,分红比例稳定在50%以上,2023年度分红派息合计17.9亿元,对应股息率超过3%。在当前利率环境走低、资金更偏好确定性的背景下,川投能源分红政策成为其估值下限的重要保障。行业龙头长江电力(600900.SH)当前股息率为3.2%,历史区间通常在3.5%~3.7%。在估值修复预期下,川投能源的“类债券股”属性或将进一步增强。

  值得关注的是,四川能源发展集团下属拥有川投能源、川能动力(000155.SZ)、华海清科(688120.SH)三家A股上市平台,分别代表水电、新能源和先进制造三大业务方向。这种集团-平台化架构有利于资源调度、产业协同,未来若集团内再推进上市公司资产注入或战略协同,有望带来外延式增长机会。

  虽然短期内并未涉及具体的资产注入安排,但从并购重组的路径演变看,央地国资正在探索更为灵活的资本整合方式。作为国企整合背景下的重要组成部分,川投能源有望受益于四川能源发展集团未来的资本运作与产业调整。

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