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  汇通财经APP讯——国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁格奥尔基耶娃周四发出严厉警告,称不断升级的全球贸易紧张局势将迫使IMF显著下调经济增长预测。这一罕见预警为下周举行的IMF和世界银行春季会议定下基调,届时全球财经领袖将齐聚华盛顿,商讨如何应对特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡。

  增长前景恶化:但衰退尚未到来

  格奥尔基耶娃明确表示,虽然IMF将“明显下调”增长预测,但最新评估仍不会指向全球经济衰退。今年1月,IMF预测2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为3.3%,这一相对乐观的展望显然已不合时宜。她特别强调:“混乱会带来成本”,暗指特朗普关税政策正在给全球经济增长蒙上阴影。

  贸易体系重构:金融市场剧烈震荡

  IMF掌门人指出,近期美国加征关税及各国反制措施已导致全球贸易体系发生根本性变化。这种不确定性正在金融市场引发连锁反应,美国国债收益率曲线的异常波动被视为重要预警信号。“如果金融形势恶化,没有人会幸免”,格奥尔基耶娃的这番表态凸显问题的严重性。

  通胀前景分化:保护主义的双重效应

  IMF预计,关税措施可能产生相互抵消的影响:一方面推高消费者和生产者的价格,另一方面又可能抑制支出从而降低通胀压力。这种复杂局面将导致各国通胀走势出现明显分化,给货币政策制定者带来全新挑战。

  小国危机:多边体系面临考验

  格奥尔基耶娃特别警告,贸易紧张局势可能对较小经济体产生不成比例的冲击。“长远来看,保护主义会削弱生产率,尤其是对较小经济体”,她指出保护产业的政策最终会损害创新和创业精神。为此,她强烈呼吁主要经济体达成保持开放的贸易协议,避免世界走向经济分裂。

  前瞻与建议

  在全球经济面临转折的关键时刻,IMF报告传递出明确信号:贸易保护主义正在给增长前景蒙上阴影,但通过国际合作仍可避免最坏结果。对投资者而言,需重点关注三大风险点:美债收益率波动加剧、新兴市场资本外流压力,以及全球供应链重构带来的通胀风险。

  当增长忧虑遭遇政策不确定性,而实际利率尚未形成压制时,金价仍有望继续冲高。下周IMF报告的详细预测,或将成为黄金多头的下一个催化剂。

专题:2025年全国企业管理创新大会

  2025年4月17日-18日,“2025年全国企业管理创新大会”在广东珠海举行,主题为“管理激发活力创新引领未来”。中车株洲电力机车有限公司总经理助理、海外市场营销中心党总支书记谢双应出席并演讲。

  谢双应介绍到,中车株机始创于1936年,位于湖南株洲,是中国中车的核心子公司,总资产386亿元,在册员工1.4万人。中车株机经过近90年的发展,已经建成了以便利机车、城市轨道交通产品与干线动车组为主体,多种创新产品为补充的“3+X”产业平台。中国的第一台电力机车于1958年在这里诞生,已累计生产了超过1万台机车,是全球最大的电力机车生产基地,并誉为中国的“电力机车之都”。

  回顾中车株机28年的国际化之路,谢双应提到,2014年是一个神奇的年份,可以将这一年作为分界线将公司的国际化经营分成两个阶段。他指出,在2013年时,公司的海外业务虽然走过了17个年头,进入了9个国家,但17年间累计获得的海外订单只有22亿美金,订单延续性不强,企业海外布局刚刚起步,仅有一个海外机构投入运营,海外业务模式多以传统的产品出口为主,国际经营明显处于早期阶段。但自2014年开始,中车株机的海外业务和国际化经营进入了高速发展阶段,无论从订单金额、海外布局、发展模式都取得了跨越式的发展。

  在2014年,公司首次提出海外业务占比30%的远期发展目标,明确了以“一带一路”沿线国家为重点,逐步进军欧洲高端市场的战略方向,并致力于从营销、研发、制造、服务和文化五个维度对标国际市场开展管理创新,聚焦核心能力与核心竞争力的建设。“这其实是中车株机过去十年海外业务高速发展的核心密码。”他说。

  同时,在营销体系的建设与布局方面,公司在2014年开始大力提升海外营销的资源投入。在研发能力建设方面,中车株机始终把科技创新放在企业经营的核心位置,研发投入占年收入5.6%,是过去十几年的平均数据。面对国内国际两个市场在产品需求、行业标准、认证体系的显著差异,公司以开放的姿态积极主动与国际研发体系进行对接,积极参与国际标准的制定。

  此外,在制造能力提升方面。一方面,中车株机积极响应“中国制造2025”战略,大力推进本部制造单元数字化升级改造,另外一方面,在海外,公司在马来西亚、土耳其、墨西哥通过绿地投资设立了生产制造基地,通过并购辐射机车公司在欧洲拥有了制造资源。

  谢双应强调,轨道交通的产品作为一个复杂的机电一体化系统,企业的服务质量和服务效率至关重要。中车株机高度重视客户培训工作,为客户量身定做培训方案,把每一次客户培训当作一次营销和文化交流,重视培训给客户带来了良好体验与价值创造,为业主了解车、用好车,实现车辆的高质量运营奠定基础。

  “过去十年,我们在海外坚定不移地开展本地化经营。在本地化营销、制造、采购、用工、服务方面都取得了阶段性的成果,助力海外业务增长,实现了全新的突破。”在他看来,公司近十年的海外业务高速发展,是国家战略牵引的结果,是企业坚持拥抱市场、直面竞争的结果,也是一代一代企业管理者以价值创造为导向,坚持改革创新的结果。

  “展望未来,在中国中车的正确领导下,我们将秉承担当开放、求是至上的理念,坚定不移地走好科技创新、深化改革、合规经营和和国际化经营之路,为全球客户提供更优质的产品和服务,为参与全球轨道交通事业的发展,构建人类命运共同体做出更大的贡献。”

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