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  国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,亚洲央行总体上有降息空间来支持内需,并抵消全球贸易战持续的影响,地区状况比亚洲金融危机前要好得多。

  IMF亚太部负责人KrishnaSrinivasan周五表示,地区通胀率与中央银行的目标范围相当甚至更低,这应该有利于进一步放松货币政策。 

  虽然这可能会削弱货币,尤其是如果美国利率在更长时间内保持较高水平,“但我们建议各国让汇率成为减震器,让货币政策留出调整空间以应对关税冲击,”Srinivasan说。

  美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能会减缓全球经济,依赖出口的亚洲地区势将成为受冲击最严重的地区之一。Srinivasan表示,IMF预计亚洲经济今年将仅增长3.9%,2026年将增长4%,将遭受外部需求疲软和美国关税政策带来的双重打击。

  他说,这比IMF先前的预测累计下调0.8个百分点,是疫情以来的最大调整。他说,新的预测也仍面临“重大下行风险”,这取决于与美国的贸易谈判结果。

  从好的方面看,他说亚洲地区的基本面比1997-1998年亚洲金融危机期间要好得多。当时IMF救助了印度尼西亚、韩国和泰国。Srinivasan表示,差异包括可信的政策框架、独立的央行以及资产负债表中较少的货币错配。

  IMF敦促亚洲着眼于国内经济来推动增长,并进行必要的结构性改革以刺激消费和投资。

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