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  猪肉价格近期超预期上涨,不过分析师认为,短期上涨或难改后期下跌趋势。

  据中国养猪网监测数据显示,4月20日和21日,生猪(外三元)价格持续站上15元/公斤的水平,为近两个月来最高点,其中,4月21日价格为15.01元/公斤,较2月13日(农历正月十六)的14.44元/公斤上涨近4%。

  对于猪肉价格近期的上涨,华泰证券在研报中分析称,春节后猪价持续表现为淡季不淡、且近日出现了超预期小幅上涨,或主要系二育等累库支撑。

  报告指出,考虑到3月以来肥标价差快速收窄加上天气逐渐升温后肥猪日增重可能减慢、大肥猪需求可能减弱和前期能繁母猪存栏及新生仔猪数增加对应后市供应增加,短期猪价虽可能受二育进场节奏等影响出现超预期波动,但后市猪价下跌趋势或难改。

  瑞达期货认为,供应端,母猪产能处于增加趋势,中期供应端存在压力,不过短时间二育积极入场以及养殖端扛价惜售,缓冲供应压力。需求端,临近五一假期,后期终端需求或有所好转。

  总体来看,瑞达期货表示,二育市场以及节前需求有望改善,支持现货价格平稳波动,预计短期生猪盘面震荡略偏强运行,不过中期供应压力犹存。

  华泰期货也在研报中分析称,当前生猪市场处于供需双弱的情况之中,在二次育肥的影响下,现货价格保持坚挺,但随着气温逐渐回升,消费端白条走货也较为困难,短期预计生猪价格仍将震荡运行。

  报告预计,短期内生猪价格缺乏明显供需矛盾,中长期来看,压栏和二育可能在后期集中释放,生猪价格仍有下跌风险。

  来源:合富永道

  作者:围基解密

  4月15日,光大保德信基金发布高管变更公告,公司总经理刘翔因个人原因辞任,公司副总经理、首席运营总监兼首席信息官贺敬哲将代任总经理职务。光大保德信基金表示,公司经营一切正常。可是数据显示,光大保德信旗下6只混合型基金和2只股票型基金在2024年的股票换手异常,换手率超过900%,且业绩拉胯。

  数据显示,2024年混合型基金股票换手率疯狂的基本是规模低于1亿元的迷你基金,这些迷你基金多来自于西部利得、富安达、国融、富荣、恒越、浙商证券资管等小型基金公司,还有万家、国寿安保等中型基金公司。随着数据的深入统计,还有一些小基金公司规模较大的产品也有类似不良风气。光大保德信基金旗下混合型基金不仅股票换手猛,且基金规模也比上述迷你基金大了很多。不得不承认,公募基金有不少中小基金公司的权益投资的操作一直在拉低公募基金行业底限。又菜(业绩拉胯)又爱玩(股票交易高换手)的一些中小基金公司是行业之耻。

  来自于小基金公司的迷你基金交易更激进,倾向于频繁交易。主动权益基金高换手率是一个硬币的两面:高换手意味着基金经理频繁买卖证券,增加了交易次数,从而为提供交易通道的券商带来更多佣金收入;高换手率带来的佣金成本最终可能转嫁给基金投资者,影响基金的净回报。如果基金业绩出色还能对投资者有所交待,如果业绩不给力,这样的高换手交易就有瓜田李下之嫌。例如,富安达、国融旗下基金的佣金大多数都流入了大股东券商的腰包。

  济安金信

  表、光大保德信基金旗下主动权益产品集体疯狂高换手

  资料来源:济安金信基金评价中心

  济安金信基金评价中心数据显示,而光大保德信旗下6只混合型基金在2024年的股票换手率超过900%:基金经理詹佳、唐钰蔚管理的光大保德信永鑫混合A股票换手率为2092.32%;基金经理朱剑涛管理的光大保德信风格轮动混合A股票换手率为1525.72%;基金经理朱剑涛管理的规模亿元的光大保德信诚鑫混合A股票换手率为1261.57%;基金经理詹佳管理的光大保德信先进服务业混合A股票换手率为1078.47%,该基金2024年亏损3.08%;基金经理詹佳管理的规模亿元的光大保德信行业轮动混合股票换手率为1064.97%,该基金2024年亏损5.36%;基金经理管理林晓凤、马鹏飞的规模为5.31亿元的光大保德信睿盈混合A股票换手率为951.04%,这个规模最大的基金也是这几只中亏损最严重的,2024年亏损11.36%,过去3年亏损38.09%。数据显示,光大保德信基金旗下5只股票型基金有3只换手率超过700%,且2024年也出现了5%以上的亏损。

  证监会主席吴清曾在记者招待会上说,要加强监管执法,切实保护投资者利益。强化对基金投资交易行为的引导和约束,坚决纠治“高换手率”“风格漂移”等过度投机行为,加大对违法违规行为查处力度,严厉打击基金投资中的各类违法违规行为,加强基金公司信息披露的社会监督,进一步营造风清气正的行业文化。

  2022年4月26日证监会发布《关于加快推进公募基金行业高质量发展的意见》特别强调,采取有效监管措施限制“风格漂移”、“高换手率”等博取短线交易收益的行为,切实发挥资本市场“稳定器”和“压舱石”的功能作用。要持续强化合规风控能力,严厉打击“老鼠仓”、市场操纵、利益输送、非公平交易等损害基金持有人利益的违法违规行为,建立违法违规人员从业“黑名单”制度和公示机制。其中对非公平交易行为是重点关注的。光大保德信旗下多只混合型和股票型的异常高换手与业绩的拉胯形成鲜明对比,其中是否涉嫌损害持有人利益的交易行为值得玩味。

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