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  尽管美国总统特朗普近期祭出“对等关税”措施,引发市场对外国投资者报复性抛售美国国债的担忧,但美国财政部最新发布的数据表明,这种担忧目前尚未成为现实。

  根据财政部周三公布的“拍卖分配报告”,4月上半月外国和国际类买家在美债拍卖中的购买量较3月上半月增长了22%。该类别包括外国私人投资者以及外国央行,为外资参与美债市场提供了最新的动态。

  虽然这份报告通常并不受到市场密切关注,考虑到本月初特朗普宣布“对等关税”后,长期国债价格下跌、收益率上升,市场普遍认为这是外国投资者抛售美国资产所致,因此本次报告在当前时点显得格外重要。数据显示,截至目前,10年期美债收益率4月较上月下降了0.141个百分点(债券价格与收益率呈反向关系)。

  法国外贸银行美国利率策略主管SubadraRajappa在接受外媒采访时表示,正因当前市场局势紧张,她的团队将更加关注此次报告。

  报告显示,4月份10年期国债拍卖中,外国买家购买金额高达72亿美元,远高于3月份的46.4亿美元,环比增长超过50%。30年期国债拍卖也出现明显增量。尽管3年期国债的拍卖略显疲软,整体由10年和30年期的强劲需求所弥补。

  这一数据也印证了财政部长贝森特上周在接受采访时的表态,他称“外国竞争在加剧”,外国机构在国债拍卖中活跃度上升。

  本次报告涵盖截至4月15日、剩余期限超过一年的国债拍卖情况。财政部一般每两周公布一次此类分配数据。与其他公开数据相比,拍卖分配报告能更准确地展示各类投资者在拍卖中的参与程度,涵盖美国养老金、基金以及外国买家等多个主体。

  相比之下,每周发布的拍卖结果中“间接投标人”这一类别虽然也常被用于判断外资动向,但其包含范围较广,不能完全代表外国投资者的实际参与度。正如财政部所指出的:“将‘间接投标’百分比作为外资参与的指标应持谨慎态度,因为该比例与实际外资竞拍比例之间的相关性有限且不稳定。”

  数据显示,3月份外国买家购买了占总发行量9.1%的2至30年期美债,这与前两个月的水平基本一致。

  然而,其他外资数据则呈现出更为复杂的局面。财政部国际资本流动(TIC)报告显示,今年2月,美国最大债权国日本净买入317亿美元长期美债,而第二大债权国中国则净卖出48亿美元。虽然此类数据发布时间相对滞后,仍被视为衡量外资购债行为的最佳追踪工具。

  当前市场对外资购债行为的关注度大幅提升,部分原因是美国即将到期的债务规模庞大。彼得森基金会估算,美国未来一年内将有逾9万亿美元国债到期,这对市场的资金需求构成重大挑战。

  此外,大规模抛售美债也未必符合外国央行自身的利益。数据显示,约88%的全球外汇交易涉及美元。以中国为例,其主要国家金融机构共持有至少3万亿美元的美元资产。全球许多利率定价都锚定于美债收益率,任何损害美债价值的行为,都会间接损害这些持有者自身的资产。

  来源:北京商报

  时值第30个“世界读书日”,4月23日,在第四届全民阅读大会上正式发布了2024年度中国数字阅读报告(以下简称“报告”)。报告显示,2024年,我国数字阅读用户规模为6.7亿,同比增长17.52%;我国数字阅读市场总体营收规模为661.41亿元,同比增长16.65%。

  根据报告,2020—2024年,中国数字阅读用户规模分别为4.94亿、5.06亿、5.30亿、5.70亿、6.70亿,呈现持续增长态势。

  报告指出,五年来,数字阅读用户规模的持续增长,反映出数字阅读已经成为我国网民日常获取知识、启智增慧的主要方式之一,这对于推进全民阅读工作具有重要指示意义。

  从2023年到2024年,我国数字阅读用户规模增长近1亿人,同比增长达17.52%。对此,盘古智库高级研究员江瀚对北京商报记者表示,这与网络文学行业的IP衍生及周边服务用户量快速增长密切相关。

  据悉,2024年,数字阅读作品总量约为6307.26万部,同比增长6.31%;网络文学和电子书的数量占比约为67.55%,有声阅读作品数量占比约为32.45%。

  “网络文学丰富的故事内容和庞大的粉丝基础,为IP衍生及周边服务提供了广阔的市场空间。随着网络文学IP的不断开发和拓展,如改编成影视剧、动漫、游戏等,这些衍生作品吸引了大量原网络文学用户的关注,并带动了新用户的加入,从而推动了数字阅读用户规模的增长。此外,还包括数字技术的不断进步和普及,市场需求的持续增长等因素。”江瀚表示。

  另据报告,2020—2024年,中国数字阅读市场规模分别为351.60亿元、415.70亿元、463.52亿元、567.02亿元、661.41亿元,呈现持续增长态势。

  眺远咨询董事长兼CEO高承远认为,我国数字阅读用户规模和市场总体营收规模持续跃升,反映了数字阅读市场的强劲增长势头和广阔的发展空间。同时,也显示出数字阅读产业的商业模式和发展模式在不断创新和完善,能够更好地满足用户的需求和市场的变化。这对于推进全民阅读工作而言具有重要的意义,更多人能够随时随地获取阅读资源,有助于培养大众的阅读兴趣和习惯,提高全民阅读的参与度和覆盖率,进而推动整个社会的文化素养和知识水平的提升,为文化强国建设奠定坚实基础。

  此外,报告显示,2024年我国数字阅读市场呈现三方面基本特征:一是内容价值始终是驱动行业高质量发展的核心。二是数字阅读行业的商业模式发生重要转变,正在向以广告及其他营收模式为主导转型,反映出其背后隐含的用户行为、内容策略和商业逻辑的多重调整。三是用户阅读行为更加趋向场景化和多元化。阅读习惯和生活节奏之间的关联度越来越高,场景化阅读渐成主流。

  新智派新质生产力会客厅联合创始发起人袁帅表示,“上述三方面特征为数字阅读市场释放了新的发展空间。首先,内容价值作为驱动行业高质量发展的核心,将促使数字阅读平台更加注重内容的质量和原创性,从而满足用户日益多样化的阅读需求。其次,数字阅读行业商业模式的转变,将推动行业向更加多元化和可持续化的方向发展,为市场带来新的增长点。最后,用户阅读行为的场景化和多元化趋势,将促使数字阅读平台不断创新阅读场景和服务模式,提供更加个性化、便捷化的阅读体验,进一步拓展数字阅读市场的边界和潜力”。

  北京商报记者卢扬程靓

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