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美国激进的贸易政策动摇了全球市场根基。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)近日刊文称,尽管特朗普一直承诺开启美国的“全新黄金时代”,但这个昔日的投资圣地正开始失去光彩。

△美国有线电视新闻网近日以“特朗普的贸易战正将投资者推离美国”为题刊文。

文章称,美国银行最新全球基金经理调查显示,自2001年有记录以来,计划减持美股的全球投资者人数已创历史新高。

百达资产管理公司高级多资产策略师阿伦·赛表示,特朗普的贸易政策已引发国际市场对其经济增长前景的担忧,促使全球投资者重新调整在美资产配置。

阿伦·赛直言,贸易战造成的实质性损害已然形成,影响不可逆。正所谓“覆水难收”。

三大因素逼走国际投资者

美国股市长期以来被视为黄金标准。数据显示,过去15年间,标普500指数的表现持续优于欧洲和亚洲主要股指。然而今年以来,该指数已下跌10%,正经历2022年以来最糟糕的单月表现。这也让投资者清醒地意识到,市场格局已发生巨变。

景顺资产管理公司投资主管阿莱西奥·德隆吉斯指出,促使投资焦点从美国转向海外的三大催化剂已然显现:

1月,中国推出的DeepSeek人工智能异军突起,令硅谷震惊,彻底打破了“AI创新唯美国独尊”的行业神话;2月,美国对乌克兰政策转向导致德国加大国防开支,为欧洲经济增长与投资注入新动能;3月至4月,特朗普政府反复无常的关税政策成为促使投资者转向其他市场的第三重推力。

美国个人投资者协会最新调查显示,过去八周,超半数受访者对美股持悲观态度。

焦点合伙财富公司首席投资策略师杰森·布莱克威尔透露,客户要求增持国际股票的需求已达15年来最高水平。

他指出,近日,此类需求持续涌现。DeepSeek的崛起与欧洲增长前景已吸引投资者目光的转移。关税政策等事件促使投资者重新评估其国际资产配置,逐步调整投资布局。

巴克莱银行分析师阿贾伊·拉贾德亚克萨表示,美国市场持续二十年的资金虹吸效应已显疲态,全球资本正在重新寻找价值洼地。

他特别强调,中国科技军团正多点开花:除DeepSeek外,华为突破芯片封锁、比亚迪电动车与特斯拉分庭抗礼,都是绝佳例证。中国政府近期对民营科技企业的扶持政策,更让创新引擎全速运转。

关税政策动摇全球资本对美信心

文章指出,市场风向标持续示警:美元指数近期创2022年以来最差单周表现,欧元兑美元汇率升至三年新高。高盛分析师在一报告中指出,美国资产回报优势本是美元强势的基石,但若关税如预期侵蚀企业利润和居民实际收入,这一支柱恐将崩塌。

美国永核投资公司(Evercore)副总裁克里希纳·古哈直言,美债收益率攀升与美元疲软,折射出市场对特朗普经济政策的信任危机。

阿伦·赛分析称,特朗普政府强行改变国际贸易体系和全球经济秩序的做法,已导致国际资本对美国资产的配置意愿降低。虽然美股仍是长期投资选择,但在关税冲击与不确定性加剧背景下,投资者正积极寻求海外标的以分散风险。

他还强调,对欧洲投资者而言,战略配置美国资产已非不二之选,标普500也不再是投资者的唯一选择。

监制丨陆毅

制片人丨赵新宇

主编丨崔翀

  随着易方达基金、广发基金等头部公司发布2025年一季报,张坤、萧楠、吴远怡等知名基金经理一季度调仓情况也随之浮出水面,张坤调整了消费和科技等行业的投资结构,萧楠增加了白酒的配置,吴远怡挖掘新消费板块中丰富的细分投资机会。

  张坤:股票收益率连续低于企业ROE水平的现象不会长期持续下去

  张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选一季度股票仓位基本稳定,调整了消费和科技等行业的投资结构。具体来看,该基金前十大重仓股分别是腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、中国海洋石油、百胜中国、洋河股份、美团-W。

  张坤在季报中表示,自下而上观察,部分行业的竞争格局正在改善,企业家的预期也更加理性,企业的经营质量不断改善,利润率、周转率、自由现金流等指标不断变好,部分企业家的资本配置能力也有所提升,能够更加审慎地评估投资新业务和帮股东加码老业务之间的优劣,回报股东的决心也不断增强。地产下行对经济的影响逐步进入尾声,一系列提振消费的政策也有托底作用,在此情况下,投资者不如把着眼点放在企业上。股票的收益率是由企业的收益率决定的,拉长看大致相当于企业的ROE水平。过去几年发生的股票收益率连续低于企业ROE水平的现象,不会长期持续下去。

  张坤表示,将专注于寻找具备优秀商业模式、竞争力和定价能力突出、行业空间广阔且资本分配对股东友好的公司。这些公司在加深护城河的同时,远期能为股东创造出显著更多的自由现金流。“无论何时,我们持有的公司都在不断创造自由现金流,这些自由现金流将积累到企业的内在价值上,而企业内在价值的不断提升最终将会投射为企业长期的市值增长。”张坤说。

  萧楠:配置白酒股性价比很高

  萧楠和王元春管理的易方达消费行业股票型基金,在2025年春节后,增加了白酒股的配置。萧楠认为,当前配置白酒股相当于买了一个带有内需看涨期权的高息债券,性价比已经很高。他还在汽车及零部件板块中做了微调,主要增加了对外需的配置。

  截至一季度末,该基金前十大重仓股分别是贵州茅台、山西汾酒、美的集团、五粮液、福耀玻璃、古井贡酒、长城汽车、比亚迪、海尔智家、东鹏饮料。与去年底相比,比亚迪新进入前十大重仓股,赛轮轮胎退出前十大重仓股。

  萧楠表示,希望用一些有想象空间或者短期数据能兑现的板块来替代内需相关仓位。“我们并非对内需盲目乐观,但我们认为目前继续看空内需已经没有太多意义。”

  吴远怡:捕捉时代变革中的投资机遇

  吴远怡管理的广发成长领航一年持有混合A一季度以39.48%收益率在全市场基金中排名靠前。该基金截至一季度末的前十大重仓股分别是泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、晶品特装、新意网集团、旺能环境、阿里巴巴-W、军信股份、众辰科技、宁波华翔、美图公司。

  吴远怡在一季报中表示,一季度,资本市场整体呈现震荡态势。在此期间,科技领域的发展亮点频出。伴随国产大模型技术迎来质的飞跃,AI产业链日臻完善,以DeepSeek为代表的国产科技力量强势崛起。模型技术的进步,为人形机器人产业带来显著革新,人形机器人动作协调性和灵活性有了显著的进步,成为市场中亮眼的新成长投资方向。

  从产业长远发展趋势来看,新能源行业在经历了一段时间的低谷后,产业底部已然显现。当下,业内企业正积极构建产业联盟,借助各方资源优势,在技术研发、市场拓展等方面展开深度合作,助力新能源行业迈向新的发展阶段。

  吴远怡介绍,他聚焦成长股领域,致力于捕捉时代变革中的投资机遇。面对新消费板块诸如“谷子经济”、国潮等新业态的蓬勃兴起,挖掘其中丰富的细分投资机会,精选具有潜力的成长型企业进行投资,与企业共同成长,力求让投资者分享时代变革所孕育的丰厚资本利得。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!本文字数:317,阅读时长大约0.5分钟

  近日,有消费者在网上留言称优衣库的衣服不好退货了,原来线上下单门店退货的方式将在5月1日被取消,只能在线上付费寄回指定地址。

  据南都·湾财社记者4月21日与优衣库深圳一门店确认,相关工作人员表示公司确实出了新规定,自5月起所有线上下单的衣服无法拿到优衣库线下门店退货,只能寄回指定地址办理退货,至于是否需要额外支付运费则需要关注下单时产品是否包含有运费险。

  至于新规原因,店员表示并不清楚,之前确实会有顾客带大行李箱来门店退换。

  就新规变动原因,记者也联系了优衣库相关负责人。截至发稿前,暂未收到优衣库方面的回复。

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