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永琪和尔康一起干小燕子,让你在生活的每个选择中都能找到方向,掌握人
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永琪和尔康一起干小燕子,让你在生活的每个选择中都能找到方向,掌握人

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  由于贸易紧张局势再次引发市场担忧,16日美元指数大幅下跌。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.83%,在汇市尾市收于99.385。外汇经纪商Monex美国公司16日早间表示,随着贸易紧张局势带来担忧情绪,美元下跌。欧元继续收获美国经济困难带来的好处。

  对美元未来走势,华尔街有观点认为,总统唐纳德-特朗普推行其关税议程的激进做法,可能会给美国市场带来持久的后果。具体而言,美元作为可靠“避风港”的地位已经受损,其作为事实上的全球储备货币的角色也显得日益不确定。

  美元与其它市场长期存在的关联性被打破,从中可以看到人们对美元愈发不满的迹象。

  渣打集团(StandardChartered)全球G10外汇研究和北美宏观经济策略主管SteveEnglander强调了这种模式,这是自特朗普4月2日宣布“解放日”关税以来出现的模式。Englander表示,“市场现在显然产生了疑虑。”

  当投资者开始对股票和债券失去信心时,许多人往往会到全球外汇市场寻求避险。根据国际清算银行(BankforInternationalSettlements)的数据,截至2022年,外汇市场的日交易额达到7.5万亿美元,其流动性已远超股票和债券市场。除周末外,投资者可以一天24小时进出外汇头寸。

  几十年来,美元、瑞郎和日元是投资者在震荡市况中寻求避险的最热门选择。但过去几周,在日元、瑞郎和欧元大涨的同时,衡量美元兑主要对手货币价值的常用指标ICE美元指数却跌至三年最低水平。相比之下,瑞郎最近攀升至14年来的最高水平。

  麦格理集团金融市场经济学家ThierryWizman表示,最近的这轮抛售并非全球对美元的信心首次受到挑战。Wizman说,在始于2007年年中前后的金融危机初期,市场对美元表现出了“很大担忧”。投资者最初将抵押债危机视为美国独有的问题。但到2011年欧洲债务危机触发纾困时,人们对美元的信心已经恢复。

  Wizman说,这次情况感觉有所不同。特朗普拥抱关税政策,非但没有支撑起对美元的信心,反而似乎要破坏华盛顿此前开创的体系。Wizman说,此次政策巨变不仅威胁到美元在市场承压时期的避险地位,还可能削弱美元作为事实上的全球货币的地位。这可能会引发一系列负面后果,包括美国政府和消费者的借款成本上升。

  Wizman说:“在金融危机期间,美国并没有要瓦解国际贸易体系或国际金融体系的动作。我们经历了一场金融冲击,但要说有什么不同的话,那就是美国的决策者当时积极主动地试图挽救国际体系,包括使用外交手段。”

  “现在有看法认为美国不仅动机变了,方法也变了。这表明美国不再愿意承担维护自身体系。相反,美国正在以非外交的和突兀的方式拆解这个体系。”

  RBCWealthManagement的固定收益投资组合策略师AtulBhatia表示,要想摆脱以美元为全球商业中心的体系不太可能一蹴而就。他说:“整个体系的网络效应很强。”

  从某些指标来看,世界几十年来一直在逐步摆脱对美元的依赖。国际货币基金组织(InternationalMonetaryFund)的数据显示,自20世纪90年代末以来,美元在全球央行储备中所占份额就一直在萎缩。然而,美元在贸易领域的主导地位基本上没有减弱。根据国际银行间支付网络Swift的数据,全球近一半的交易仍在使用美元。

  美元周二结束了连续五个交易日的下跌。华尔街收盘时,ICE美元指数上涨了0.5%。尽管如此,美元较1月13日触及的52周高点已下跌超过9%。

永琪和尔康一起干小燕子,让你在生活的每个选择中都能找到方向,掌握人的相关文章 年内密集发行 外资基金抢滩债市机会的相关文章
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