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  2025年4月22日至23日,保险业监管高级别国际研讨会在上海成功举办。本次会议由金融监管总局、金融稳定学院(FSI)和国际保险监督官协会(IAIS)主办,来自27个国家和地区的150余名代表现场或线上参加了研讨会。

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  21名来自不同国家和地区的发言嘉宾,围绕宏观经济形势变化对保险业影响、国际保险监管改革进展、保险机构风险处置框架、气候变化金融风险监管框架、再保险市场发展与监管、金融创新与保险监管等6项议题展开了热烈讨论,就加强保险业监管的国际一致性、应对金融创新与气候变化挑战、深化再保险市场发展等方面凝聚了重要共识,对于推动全球保险业稳健运行具有积极意义。

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  北京时间4月23日晚,美股周三早盘继续上扬,道指上涨超过1000点。美国总统特朗普表示他无意撤换美联储主席鲍威尔,并暗示可能会下调对外关税。特斯拉CEO马斯克宣布将减少在联邦政府的政务活动。

  道指涨1021.74点,涨幅为2.61%,报40208.72点;纳指涨631.93点,涨幅为3.88%,报16932.35点;标普500指数涨158.90点,涨幅为3.01%,报5446.66点。

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  分析人士认为,这标志着持续已久的经济对抗可能迎来转折点。

  受特朗普立场软化迹象推动,科技股应声走高,苹果、英伟达等普遍上涨。

  特朗普关税立场软化

  美国总统特朗普周二晚间表示无意解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职位,并暗示可能会降低对外关税,其立场软化的迹象提振了市场情绪。

  特朗普关于无意撤换鲍威尔的表态,标志着他一直以来抨击美联储和鲍威尔的立场有所改变。

  就在上周末和本周一,他还在TruthSocial连续发贴称“迫不及待想开除鲍威尔”,直呼这位美联储主席为“大输家”,并要求他立即降息。

  但鲍威尔表示,他的美联储主席职位依法享有任期保护至2026年5月,且不能被解雇,因此他打算留任直至任期结束。

  特朗普还发出了关税松绑信号。他在周三晚间表示愿意在对外贸易谈判中采取不那么对抗的方式,并指出目前对一些国家征收的关税“非常高,未来将大幅下调但不会归零。”

  企业财报预警经济前景

  美银研报指出,自金融危机以来,美国企业界在财报电话会议上对经济状况的看法从未如此悲观,对于试图判断特朗普贸易战将对股票市场造成多少冲击的投资者而言,这是一个不祥的信号。

  根据美国银行对本轮财报季前期电话会议的分析,本季度财报季中对宏观经济状况的正面与负面评论之比已远低于平均水平,并势将创下2009年以来的最差水平。

  围绕美国资产的不安情绪持续攀升,促使投资者抛售美国长期政府债券,进而推动收益率走高。这种市场忧虑在期权市场中有所映射,目前用于防范更大损失的期权溢价已达到自2021年“闪电崩盘”以来的峰值水平。

  所谓的美国国债期权偏差显著扩大,投资者大量购入旨在对冲收益率飙升风险的看跌期权,推高其价格;而在收益率下行时获利的看涨期权,价格则未现同等涨幅。

  焦点个股

  特斯拉股价大涨。该公司第一财季盈利锐减40%远逊预期,仍计划上半年开始生产低价车等新车。此外,关税压力减轻以及该公司CEO马斯克表态将减少政务活动,也使该股得到提振。

  美银针对对英伟达和AMD现状及未来前景进行了详细分析,称英伟达长期价值仍被看好,重申对英伟达的“买入”评级。其认为当前股价波动为更好的买入机会,将目标价从160美元下调至150美元。

  美银下调AMD的销售和每股收益预期,予该股“中性”评级,目标价从110美元下调至105美元。

  据知情人士透露,过去一年间,MetaPlatforms曾向微软、亚马逊等科技巨头协调,希望共同分担其Llama大语言模型的训练成本,其中包括服务器相关的成本。此举表明,即便是资金雄厚的Meta,也对其人工智能开发费用激增感到压力山大。

  知情人士透露,除了与亚马逊、微软接洽外,Meta还曾与Databricks、IBM、甲骨文及至少一家中东投资机构展开过类似接触。截至2025年初,相关讨论仍在持续。

  欧盟依据数字市场法开出首笔罚单,对苹果和Meta罚款总计7亿欧元。

  富国银行将苹果目标价格从275美元下调至245美元。

  美东时间周二,OpenAI的高管在华盛顿的谷歌反垄断审判中作证称,如果反垄断执法机构成功迫使谷歌出售Chrome,OpenAI将有兴趣收购Chrome。如果法院下令谷歌出售其Chrome浏览器,这将是自上世纪80年代AT&T分拆以来,法院首次下令拆分一家美国大公司。

  英特尔计划裁员逾20%。

  波音第一财季营收、自由现金流超市场预期。

  新东方称截至2月底季度营收11.8亿美元,同比增2%,经调净利同比降14.3%。

  美国新建住宅销售上月大幅增长,得益于抵押贷款利率小幅回落以及为开启春季销售旺季而持续推出的销售激励措施。

  政府周三公布的数据显示,3月新单户型住宅销售量增长7.4%,至折合年率为72.4万套,主要受南部地区销售激增的推动。这超出接受彭博调查的所有经济学家的预期。

  南部地区的销售速度升至近四年来最快,延续了2月在经历年初恶劣天气后的温和增长。中西部地区销量也攀升,而西部和东北部的销售下滑。

  新房售价中值下降7.5%,至40.36万美元,主要反映出低价位住宅的销售活动上升。这也可能表明建筑商的待售库存在不断增加。

  3月处于任何建设阶段的待售新建住宅供应量小幅上升至50.3万套,仍为2007年以来最高水平。完工的待售住宅数量也增加,维持在2009年以来高点。

  欧洲天然气价格震荡,交易员评估获得液化天然气的一些新挑战,该地区需要液化天然气来补充枯竭的燃料储备。

  基准期货价格早些时候一度上涨2.4%,随后在小幅涨跌之间波动。尽管欧洲在重新填补库存方面似乎取得了一定进展,但从亚洲到美国的一系列事件加剧了供应风险和价格波动。

  在今冬库存跌至2022年以来最低水平后,欧洲未来几个月需要比往年多采购大约三分之一的天然气以重建库存。

  行业研究高级分析师PatricioAlvarez和JoaoMartins在报告中指出,“在俄罗斯管道天然气流量下降的背景下,将夏季LNG进口量提高30%以上至近1400亿立方米的年度纪录至关重要,这也可能在关税重塑LNG贸易格局的背景下支撑价格。”

  根据分析机构SparkCommodities的数据,在亚洲,一些与欧洲竞争美国液化天然气进口的国家在最近几周已成为更具利润吸引力的目的地,这增加了LNG供应被转向亚洲的风险,除非欧洲天然气价格出现反弹。

  阿姆斯特丹时间下午4:20,欧洲天然气基准荷兰近月期货跌1.1%,报每兆瓦时33.85欧元。

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