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师傅不可以:的未来发展方向及挑战预测

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  高盛首席经济学家JanHatzius指出,美国总统特朗普有关解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的反复威胁已对金融市场产生了重大影响。

  “我们看到金融环境出现严重收紧,债券收益率上升再加上股市下跌而且美元也走软,”Hatzius周二接受采访时说,“但总的来说,每当出现这种情况时都会收紧我们的金融状况指数,所以我认为这在某种程度上预示了如果这条路走下去就会发生什么。

  特朗普周一再次发帖指责鲍威尔,甚至用“大废物”来形容这位美联储主席。他还说如果不立即降息美国经济就可能会放缓。

  特朗普加大力度施压鲍威尔:不立即降息美国经济就可能放缓

  最近几天特朗普的口诛笔伐令投资者如坐针毡。此前他的首席经济学家透露总统正在研究是否可以免去鲍威尔的美联储主席一职。

  Hatzius表示,虽然特朗普可以通过任命来改造美联储理事会,但利率决策权属于更广泛的委员会,而其中包括了非总统委任成员,因此在一定程度上对政治压力构成了抵御力。

  随着投资者聚焦欧洲央行货币宽松前景,欧洲国债上涨,顶住了美国国债收益率周一飙升带来的压力。交易员加大对欧洲央行降息幅度的押注,预计2025年还会再降息70个基点。

  欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德向CNBC表示,欧洲央行几乎已经实现将通胀率降至2%的目标,但在当前经济形势日益动荡的背景下,仍需保持灵活机变。

  管理委员会成员PeterKazimir称,欧洲央行将在未来几个月实现通胀目标;而其同事OlliRehn表示,美国关税将在短期内推动欧元区通胀下行,但总体影响将是“温和的”。

  彭博报道称法国总统马克龙正在考虑最早今年秋季解散议会并提前选举的可能性之后,法国债券一开始收窄涨幅。

  之后这一趋势消退,10年期法国国债相对于德国国债收益率的溢价收盘时基本持平。

  英国国债收益率曲线随美国国债扭曲陡化。

  英国央行最鹰派的决策委员之一MeganGreene表示,特朗普的全球关税浪潮更可能对英国物价构成下行压力,而非推动通胀上升。

  市场

  德国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点,至2.44%;

  德债期货涨23点,至131.94;

  意大利10年期国债收益率跌4个基点,至3.61%;

  意大利与德国国债利差收窄1个基点,至约117个基点;

  法国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点,至3.22%;

  10年期英国国债收益率跌2个基点,至4.55%。

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