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在浙江的经济沃土上,杭州银行、宁波银行和浙商银行被称为银行界的“浙系三杰”,一直被外界放在一起进行PK。

最近,杭州银行发布2024年财报,报告期内营收383.81亿元,同比增长9.61%;净利润169.83亿元,同比增长18.07%。

从业绩增速来看,杭州银行显然是排第一的。因为在2024年,宁波银行的营收为666.32亿元,增长8.2%;净利润271.27亿元,增长6.2%。浙商银行营收676.50亿元,增长6.19%,净利润151.86亿元,增长0.92%。

不过,宁波银行和浙商银行也有自己的优势——前者利润规模第一,最能赚钱,后者资产规模第一,底子最厚。三家银行你追我赶,很难说谁能坐稳“浙系一哥”。

往后看,这场竞争早已超越简单的规模比拼,成为资产质量、经营策略与合规底线的全面较量。

“三仙”过海,各显神通

1、杭州银行:业绩增速第一

凭借高增速的业绩,杭州银行就像赛场上百米冲刺的选手,速度相当快。

不仅业绩增速高于浙商银行和宁波银行,放眼整个银行队伍,杭州银行的表现都很突出。Wind数据显示,截至2025年3月31日,在两市已经披露2024财报的35家A股上市银行中,杭州银行的业绩增速仅低于浦发银行、青岛银行,排行第三。

凭什么杭州银行成了“浙系最速男”?说白了,它的选择非常“精明”。

众所周知,长三角和一线城市是国内经济的排头兵,杭州银行就把战略重点放在了这些区域,搭上了区域经济发展的快速列车。

在行业选择上,制造业、科技行业、绿色经济属于“国家给补贴、企业有需求”的领域,从投入到产出的表现更好,杭州银行就专怼科技、制造、绿色经济等领域。2024年末,其制造业贷款、绿色贷款、科技贷款余额分别同比增长26.27%、21.52%、29.52%。

众所周知,银行业一贯的盈利模式是“赚利息差”,但是整个银行业的净息差在去年已经降到了历史新低,大家赚钱的速度都在变慢,但去年杭州银行凭借1.95%的净息差位列“浙系三杰”之首,加快了赚钱速度。

2、宁波银行:利润规模第一

如果说杭州银行是百米冲刺选手,宁波银行就是一贯的马拉松头部选手。

宁波银行的利润不仅在去年排在“浙系三杰”之首,而且已经持续了六年。另外,去年其总资产也达到31252.32亿元,首次突破3万亿元大关,同比增长15.25%。

之所以如此能赚钱,是因为宁波银行触角非常广。其本体有公司银行、零售公司、财富管理等9个利润中心,子公司又有永赢基金、永赢金租、宁银理财、宁银消金4个利润中心,堪称“银行界的肯德基全家桶”,全产业链通吃。

赚钱的同时,宁波银行的风险意识还很强,保证利润的稳定性。去年其不良贷款率0.76%,连续17年低于1%,相当于在雷区遍布的金融战场,硬是走出了“凌波微步”。

3、浙商银行:资产规模第一

从资产规模来看,去年浙商银行凭借3.33万亿的庞大身躯,依然排在宁波银行和杭州银行之前,连续多年在浙江保持第一。2024年,其资产规模能保持5.78%的增速,离不开在贷款上的精细耕作。

去年,浙商银行的发放贷款和垫款总额为1.86万亿元,占资产总额的56%,同比增长了8.21%,对资产提升产生明显了拉动作用。贷款同比增长,主要是公司贷款和票据贴现增长共同拉动的。

不过,浙商银行和宁波银行的资产规模差距已经不大了。要保住资产规模领先的优势,浙商银行还要再加把劲。

风光背后,各有隐忧

虽然三家银行都有各自的优势,但在表面风光之下,也有各自的隐忧。

先说杭州银行,虽然业绩增速最高,但留不住股东的心。

今年初,陪伴杭州银行二十年之久的大股东澳洲联邦银行,将杭州银行5.45%股权转让给新华保险,开始清仓离场。去年,中国人寿、百大集团也相继减持杭州银行。

其中的原因之一,就是杭州银行在分红上太“小气”了——2021年至2023年,杭州银行派发的现金红利分别为20.76亿元、23.72亿元、30.84亿元,分红率为22.41%、20.31%、21.44%,低于证监会要求的30%。

赚的快却分得少,股东自然不乐意了。杭州银行对此解释是要持续补充内源性资本,增强抵御风险能力。说白了,就是要把钱留着未雨绸缪,没法分那么多钱。

杭州银行的并表核心一级资本充足率的确不高,截至2024年三季度末只有8.76%,同期其他许多同行都超过了10%。在A股上市银行中,杭州银行排名倒数第四,表现远低于同行水准。

杭州银行的另一个问题是虽然业绩增速高,但在逐渐放缓。2019年至2023年,其营收增速分别为25.53%、15.87%、18.36%、12.16%、6.33%,尽管2024年增速有所提高,但仍然不足10%,整体仍处于下降趋势,这可能会进一步影响其分红政策。

跟杭州银行不同,宁波银行2024年的拟现金分红超过59亿元,打破了上市以来的记录。虽然够大气,但是宁波银行也有自己的潜在问题。

2014年开启大零售战略以来,宁波银行为了冲业绩拼命撒钱给个人客户,其也终于获得“城商行零售之王”,“小招行”等称号。

然而,个人消费贷业务对宁波银行来说是把“双刃剑”,一方面能给资产扩张带来动力,另一方面个人消费贷的贷款者多为自然人个人,坏账的风险较高,会推高不良率和加大风险。

2024年,宁波银行的个人贷款不良率飙到1.67%,个人业务的利润同比下降30%,零售业务对利润贡献在下降。

宁波银行跟杭州银行还有个相同的问题,也就是大部分业务都依赖浙江本地。如果不能进一步拓展到全国,未来的想象空间还是很有限的。

浙商银行虽然业务相对来说遍布地更广,但是也有其自身的问题。

2024年,浙商银行净利润增速0.92%,跌至近四年最低点,主要原因是净息差持续收窄——2021年—2023年,浙商银行的净息差分别为2.27%、2.21%、2.01%,2024年为1.71%,赚钱能力越来越弱。

虽然净息差下降是整个银行业都在面临的挑战,但浙商银行本身也存在问题。进一步看,浙商银行的对公贷款占比高达67%。公司贷款收益率比个人贷款收益率要低,叠加贷款增速放缓以及净息差下的大背景,浙商银行的赚钱能力自然减弱。

合规管理与风险防控,是银行资产质量的生命线。虽然浙商银行的资产规模大,但质量却被外界担忧。

2024年,浙商银行的不良贷款率虽然连续三年下降至1.38%,但依然是“浙系三杰”中最高的,而且2024年累计收到超30张监管罚单。

虽说浙商银行在重点防范房地产的风险,2024年的房地产不良贷款率降至1.55%,但是前十大贷款客户中房地产业依然占了四席,在提升资产质量上还有一段路要走。

通往未来的破局之路

目前,“浙系三家”都有各自的优势和短板。三家要想活得更好,得开辟破局之路,给企业注入些新鲜血液。

杭州银行得先学会“撒钱的艺术”。财政部早就喊话拨备覆盖率超300%的部分必须释放利润,杭州银行的拨备覆盖率高达541.45%,这个数字在已公布财报的A股上市银行中是最高的。

若把拨备压低,杭州银行既能补血核心资本,又能把分红率拉到及格线。

其次,杭州银行得治治“消费贷上头症”。当前其消费贷利率杀到2.7%,虽然能吸客,但不良率已从0.48%飙到1.1%,投诉量在上升。

建议杭州银行学学“精准营销”,别搞无差别撒钱,而是用大数据筛出优质客群,给拥有稳定收入的人群定向降息,对高风险客群涨息覆盖风险,提升风控能力。

宁波银行的零售业务,应该跟“零售之王”招行学习“生活场景渗透”,把贷款嵌入买菜、缴费等高频场景,用“24小时便利店式服务”提升客户粘性,而不是靠直播撒券拉人头。

另外,宁波银行也可以学习在零售业务上占据优势的平安银行,给消费贷客户捆绑卖保险、基金,靠交叉销售赚取收入。这样既能覆盖风险又能创收,比单纯压利率内卷更高明。

总之,零售业务不是撒钱比赛,而是精细活。

说到浙商银行,现在最大的问题就是“虚胖”。资产3.3万亿听起来是个庞大身躯,但是干起来活来要喘粗气,所以首先要先学会“减肥增肌”。

所以在最近的2024年度业绩说明会上,刚被提名为浙商银行行长的陈海强喊出“三不原则”:不追求规模、不垒大户、不挣快钱,而且要把资源花在刀刃上。

另外,浙商银行还表示接下来要做出三大经营调整:“资产端发力调整为负债端发力”“高风险高收益转低风险均收益”“单纯追求单项收益调整为追求场景化的综合收益”。

翻译过来就是,首先,以前拼命往外撒贷款赚高利息,现在调转枪头,存款利息能少则少。其次,以前资产配置讲究高收益,但风险也大,现在小富即安,优先求稳。另外,以前赚钱靠放贷收利息,现在要在更多的细分场景上挖掘更多增长点。

总结起来,浙商银行这波调整就像中年发福大叔的觉醒:尝试戒掉高息揽存的“奶茶瘾”,放下高风险资产的赌徒心态,开始追求稳扎稳打了。

结语

未来,“浙系三杰”将走出不同的路径。三者的同台PK,早已超越简单的数字游戏,而在于谁能将区域禀赋转化为可持续的商业模式。

至于“浙系一哥”的名号?历史告诉我们,商场如江湖,没有永远的第一,只有与时俱进的智者。能活到最后的那家,才是真正的赢家。

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