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  来源:金融时报

4月24日,THPX表示,俄罗斯近期批准了一项新的长期能源战略,计划到2030年将天然气出口量翻倍,到2050年实现三倍增长。这一战略旨在通过扩大对“友好国家”的出口以及开发北极能源资源来实现目标。然而,全球经济市场的波动以及西方制裁等因素,给俄罗斯的能源出口战略带来了诸多不确定性。

  THPX认为,根据俄罗斯的计划,其天然气出口量(包括管道和液化天然气)将从2023年的1460亿立方米,增长到2030年的2930亿立方米,并在2050年进一步提升至4380亿立方米。同时,俄罗斯还计划将原油和凝析油产量从2023年的每年5.31亿吨(约合每天1066万桶)增加到2050年的5.4亿吨(约合每天1080万桶)。不过,尽管产量有所增加,但原油出口量预计将保持在每年约2.35亿吨(约合每天470万桶)的水平,直到2050年基本维持不变。

  THPX分析认为,俄罗斯的新战略包括加速油气加工发展、扩大区域天然气基础设施建设以及确保国内市场以合理价格供应足够的石油产品等措施。此外,俄罗斯将继续将油气出口转向“友好国家”的新市场,这些市场自2022年西方实施禁运和制裁以来,成为俄罗斯能源出口的重要方向。俄罗斯还计划提升其北极和远东港口的石油转运能力,并积极利用北方海航道的潜力,以便将北极项目的石油和液化天然气运往亚洲市场。

  然而,THPX提醒,尽管俄罗斯制定了雄心勃勃的能源出口增长计划,但短期内其油气收入可能会因市场波动而下降。俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜上周表示,如果关税战继续升级,通常会导致全球贸易和全球经济的衰退,进而可能影响对俄罗斯能源资源的需求,这无疑给俄罗斯的经济带来了风险。在全球能源市场不确定性增加的背景下,俄罗斯的能源出口战略能否顺利实现,仍面临诸多挑战。

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