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克利夫兰联储主席贝丝•哈马克周三表示,当前形势仍然支持美联储继续缩减资产负债表。她还表示,在巨大的不确定性之下,现在不是改变货币政策的时候。

哈马克表示,在货币政策上“现在不是先发制人的好时机”,并补充说,现在是时候保持耐心,在对利率采取行动之前,看看数据会如何。

哈马克在纽约大学货币市场专家会议上详细阐述了她对美联储资产负债表的看法。

哈马克表示:“我们的系统中似乎仍然有足够的储备,因此不需要主动管理。”

哈马克表示,美联储持有的资产规模过大会给金融稳定带来风险。美联储缩减持仓的过程被广泛称为量化紧缩(QT)。

她表示:“庞大的资产负债表和充足的储备在一定程度上抑制了货币市场的波动,但同时也促进了金融市场的冒险行为。”

哈马克表示,随着时间的推移,美联储采取临时市场干预措施来管理短期波动是合理的。

她表示:“在某些情况下,美联储可能需要增加临时流动性。在这种情况下,即使储备充足,美联储也能使用公开市场操作的标准工具来维持联邦基金目标区间。”

美联储上个月决定大幅放缓缩减所持美国国债和抵押贷款债券的步伐。美联储已经两次放慢了缩减步伐,以确保不会过快地撤出流动性。

哈马克表示,她支持放慢缩表步伐。尽管系统中仍有足够的储备来推动缩表,但她表示:“我预计,通过减缓缩表步伐,我们将能够让这个过程持续更长时间。”

通过QT,美联储一直在撤回其在新冠疫情时期增加的资金。旨在稳定市场和提供刺激的债券购买计划使美联储持有的资产规模增加了一倍多,达到9万亿美元。缩表过程已使资产负债表规模降至6.8万亿美元。

在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普反复无常的关税政策导致市场剧烈波动之际,美联储资产负债表再次成为焦点。市场压力如此之大,以至于一些人开始思考,如果交易真的陷入混乱,美联储是否需要通过购买债券来稳定市场。

哈马克表示,市场在高度波动中似乎保持有序,投资者能够重新配置资金。她呼应了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的言论。哈马克表示:“我认为,美联储必须设定极高的门槛才能出手救市。我们需要在那个时候出面支持市场。”

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