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广告传媒行业出现重磅并购!

4月9日晚间,梯媒龙头分众传媒发布公告表示,公司拟以发行股份及支付现金的方式购买张继学、重庆京东、百度在线等50个交易对方持有的新潮传媒100%股权。本次交易完成后,新潮传媒将成为上市公司全资子公司。经初步协商,新潮传媒100%股权预估值为83亿元。

分众传媒由知名浙商江南春于2003年创立,2005年登陆美国纳斯达克,被称为“中国广告传媒股第一股”,2015年公司借壳回归A股。

新潮传媒由张继学创立,2014年进入电梯媒体赛道后迅速抢占市场,先后获得京东、百度、顾家、好未来、欧普、元璟资本、源码资本的青睐,估值一度达到200亿元人民币。

曾因价格战打得“头破血流”的两个“死对头”,今日却选择握手言和。83亿元的买卖对于估值曾超百亿的新潮传媒来说划算吗?

新潮传媒创始人张继学称:“如果此次交易是用现金方式,我认为是贱卖了,但是如果是发行股份,就不一定了。”

京东、百度账面巨亏近六成

成立于2007年的新潮传媒,于2014年进入梯媒赛道并迅速抢占市场,先后获得京东、百度、顾家、好未来、欧普、元璟资本、源码资本的青睐,公司估值一度达到200亿元人民币,披露的融资金额都已经接近90亿元。

目前,重庆京东持有新潮传媒18.4745%的股权,创始人张继学持有公司10.6888%的股权,百度持有8.9938%的股权,欧普照明持有1.7217%的股权。

2018年,百度领投新潮传媒21亿元,若按照当前估值83亿元计算,其持股的对应价值约为7.46亿元,账面亏损约64.48%。

京东于2019年战略投资新潮传媒10亿元,后在2021年继续领投,该轮新潮传媒融资4亿美元。按当前估值计算,其持股18.4745%对应价值约为15.33亿元,2021年京东具体投资金额数据没有明确披露,大致估算目前账面亏损近六成。

另外,按照本次83亿元的收购价格,欧普照明2017年出资的1.5亿元在8年后“缩水”至1.43亿元。

从业绩来看,2022年-2024年前三季度,新潮传媒营业收入分别为19.40亿元、19.32亿元和14.97亿元,营收逐年下滑;净利润也难逃亏损“噩梦”,分别亏损4.69亿元、2.79亿元和509.85万元。直到2024年第四季度,新潮传媒才脱离亏损状态。

截至2024年9月末,新潮传媒资产总额为44.53亿元,负债总额为10.31亿元。

新潮传媒经历了什么?实际上,这与“一场千亿级的仗”脱不开关系。

效仿滴滴、快的合并,投资方推动并购?

2018年,新潮传媒内部发布《关于全面争夺分众亿元级客户的通知》,表示2015-2017年在分众传媒投放超过1亿元的客户,凡是客户广告决策人与新湖合伙人见面,即可获端价值1000万元新湖广告资源,在该客户与分众传媒合作价格的基础上,直接打5折,效果和分众一样,价格是分众的一半。

在员工提成上,该通知称:“凡抢下分众亿元级客户,业务提成按原标准的200%核发。”

这场价格战可谓是打的“两败俱伤”。

2019年,分众传媒实现营业收入121.36亿元,同比下降16.6%;归母净利润18.75亿元,同比下降67.8%;毛利率从2018年的66.21%骤降到45.21%,此后始终未能回到2017年的“巅峰”。新潮传媒也陷入连年亏损的窘境。

这场价格战很难分出谁是赢家,昔日“宿敌”如今握手言和,不少市场声音认为是分众传媒“赢了”。

对于“为什么要卖?是新潮不行了吗?”的质疑,张继学表示恰恰相反:“今天的新潮是历史上最好的时期。此时选择和分众合作,是选择一条更优实现梦想的路径。新潮的点位和客户,正好与分众互补,能全方位的覆盖主流生活圈,更好地为客户服务。在眼下经济政策和户外广告数字化的多重利好下,毋庸置疑,协作的价值提升远大于竞争。”

首都经济贸易大学蒋泽中教授对搜狐财经表示:“从进攻方和收购方来讲,我觉得是双赢的。从进攻方来讲,一就是凸显自己的实力,扩大了市场份额;第二是消灭竞争对手;第三就是会摊薄他的运营成本。目标公司也是换股,吃不了什么亏。”

蒋泽中认为:“这几年的传媒虽然总体市场是在扩大,但是其实主要是搞新媒体,而不是靠他们这种传统线下媒体,因此他们两家(分众、新潮)应该是有比较强的危机意识,所以抱团取暖。”

回想2015年滴滴与快的合并事件,阿里、腾讯等资本方为结束烧钱竞争、加速获利而推动资源整合,分众、新潮或与该案例相似。

蒋泽中对搜狐财经表示:“此次并购谁来推动?无疑是资本推动的。投资方现在或许不看好(新潮),所以用这种方式等于是改弦更张了,由投资原来的新潮改投资分众了,所以才会有这种换股收购这种方式。新潮借这个机会进入上市公司之后,它的股权就可以套现,这就是它的主要意图了,实际上是另一种获利方式。”

据新潮传媒关于并购事项的声明,当前交易处于公告预案阶段,还需履行法定审批程序,存在一定的不确定性。在审批期间,未完成交割前,新潮传媒依然是一家独立法人企业。

新潮传媒提到:本次并购不是新潮传媒“退场”,而是对新潮传媒社区媒体价值的认可。合并后,张继学将出任集团的首席增长官,他表示:“将用AI和算法打造中国最先进的线下数字化广告平台”。

83亿元是贵还是便宜?

分众传媒主营业务为生活圈媒体的开发和运营,主要产品为楼宇媒体(包含电梯电视媒体和电梯海报媒体)和影院银幕广告媒体等。公司电梯电视媒体自营设备约109.7万台,电梯海报媒体自营设备约154.9万台,影院媒体合作影院1835家,约1.3万个影厅。

官方数据显示,新潮传媒已在全国超200个城市有70万部电梯智能屏,每天覆盖45000个社区、1.8亿中产家庭人群,已经服务了23000多个客户。

根据中国广告协会发布的《2024年全球及中国户外广告市场报告》,2024年户外广告企业中,分众传媒排名第一,占据14.5%的市场份额;新潮传媒市场份额为2.7%,排名第三。在户外视频广告企业中,分众传媒、新潮传媒分别以19.4%、4.4%的市场份额占据第一、第二的位置。

分众传媒表示,新潮传媒资源点位与上市公司重合度较低。本次交易完成后,公司将进一步聚焦主业,拓展优质资源点位,优化媒体资源覆盖的密度和结构。

东吴证券分析师张良卫及分析师张家琦认为:“过往分众传媒和新潮传媒竞争激烈,在价格上起到相互牵制的影响,在收购完成后,一方面分众自身点位未来提价的价格传导将会更为顺利,另一方面新潮单点位过往价值量低于分众,未来收购的新潮点位价值量也有大幅提升的空间。”

华安证券分析师金荣认为:“重组后公司在户外广告赛道的资源点位布局进一步完善,品牌营销网络覆盖范围扩大,竞争压力减小情况下,点位价格空间得到一定释放,价量有望双升。另外,成本端费用因整合而有一定程度下降,利润侧有望受益增长。”

新潮传媒官网显示,公司估值一度近200亿元人民币,如今83亿元就做了买卖,可谓是打了惊天“巨折”。

到底是不是“贱卖”了?张继学称:“如果此次交易是用现金方式,我认为是贱卖了,但是如果是发行股份,就不一定了。基于对国内经济大循环的看好,分众合并新潮后,协作发展对股东的回报和客户的价值提升,我认为是更好的。”

据了解,本次交易将以股份对价作为主要支付手段,剩余部分采用少量现金形式,股份和现金对价比例尚未确定。

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