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嘉峪关市

  新华财经北京4月18日电(王姝睿)由于食品成本持续上升,日本3月核心通胀率加速上升,这使得日本央行权衡物价压力上升和经济风险的任务变得更加棘手。

  随着企业继续转嫁不断上涨的原材料和劳动力成本,日本物价上涨压力日益增大。日本政府公布的数据显示,包括油品但不包括新鲜食品价格在内的核心消费者物价指数(CPI)3月同比上涨3.2%,符合市场预测中值。此前2月涨幅为3%。

  另外,服务价格较去年同期上涨1.4%;食品价格同比上涨7.4%,略低于上月的7.6%。日本家庭面临汽油、酒店账单和巧克力等多种商品的价格上涨,大米价格的高昂也令人担忧。3月大米价格较上年同期升幅超过92%。生活成本上升对日本消费的打击将使决策者更加头疼。

图为7月26日,在日本东京一家连锁超市,一名男子经过摆放大米的货架。新华社记者钟雅摄

  NorinchukinResearchInstitute经济学家TakeshiMinami说,日本物价预计将继续上涨,日本央行将维持寻求进一步加息的立场,“鉴于消费仍然疲软,可能日本央行很难做出提前采取行动的决定。”

  食品价格居高不下和不断上涨的工资,使日本通胀率高于央行2%目标的现象持续近三年,市场因而预期日本央行将继续加息。但美国的关税计划震动了金融市场,并引发了对全球经济衰退的担忧,使得日本央行能否继续加息变得不那么明朗。

  日本央行下周将召开政策会议,外界预测日本央行将维持利率于0.5%不变,并下调经济增长预期。野村证券全球市场研究的两位经济学家说,日本央行可能会推迟加息,加息幅度也会更小。野村证券修正了对日本央行货币政策的预期,以反映日本经济面临的重大问题。这些问题包括美国的关税、货币政策和财政政策之间的平衡,以及2026年工资增长放缓的风险。野村将日本央行下一次加息的时间从2025年7月推迟到2026年1月,预计在截至2027年3月的预测期内,日本央行只会加息一次,而不是此前预计的两次。

  日本央行行长植田和男周四表示,如果经济和物价走势符合预测,日本央行将继续加息,但将警惕因美国关税而急剧加剧的经济不确定性。投资者预计该央行将继续等待合适的加息机会。

  编辑:王晓伟

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