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  随着美国关税飙升和更广泛的不确定性冲击国际贸易,世界贸易组织(WTO)下调了对今年商品贸易的预测。

  总部设在日内瓦的WTO在其最新预测中预计,2025年世界商品贸易量将下降0.2%,比没有美国牵头贸易战情况下低近三个百分点,与年初的预期相比出现了戏剧性逆转。2026年贸易预计反弹2.5%。

  如果美国推进所谓的更高水平对等关税,今年的萎缩甚至将更加严重。“对等关税和贸易政策不确定性的蔓延将导致2025年世界商品贸易下降1.5%,”WTO周三在报告中表示。

  北美贸易将受到最严重打击,而亚洲和欧洲将继续温和增长。

  服务贸易也将受到影响。WTO目前预计商业服务今年增长4%,2026年增长4.1%,去年为6.8%。

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