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  北京时间4月16日晚,美股周三低开。英伟达发出的严厉警告给全球科技股带来了压力。美国3月份零售销售显著增长,表明特朗普的惩罚性汽车关税使一些购车需求提前释放。世贸组织警告称,特朗普关税不确定性令全球贸易前景急剧恶化。

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  世贸组织下调2025年贸易增长预期,警告全球经济将进一步衰退。世界贸易组织周三将全球商品贸易预期从稳健增长大幅下调至下滑,称美国进一步提高关税及其溢出效应可能导致全球商品贸易出现自新冠疫情高峰期以来最严重的下滑。

  世界贸易组织表示,预计今年货物贸易将下降0.2%,低于其10月份预测的增长3.0%,新的估计是基于本周初(美国)实施的措施。世贸组织表示,如果特朗普重新全面征收关税,将使商品贸易增长减少0.6个百分点,由于与美国相关的贸易之外的溢出效应,还将减少0.8个百分点。总的来说,这将导致1.5%的跌幅,这是自2020年以来的最大跌幅。

  根据WTO在16日发布的最新《全球贸易展望与统计》报告,在调整基线预测以考虑到最近宣布的关税和贸易政策不确定性增加的影响后,WTO经济学家现预计2025年商品贸易量将萎缩0.2%,低于2024年的增长2.9%。随后2026年商品贸易量将增长2.5%,反映出全球需求疲软。

  与此同时,全球服务贸易的增长预计将从去年的6.8%放缓至今年的4.0%,明年将回升至4.1%。

  今年年初,WTO秘书处预计2025年和2026年世界贸易将继续扩大,商品贸易将与全球国内生产总值(GDP)同步增长,服务贸易将以更快的速度增长。然而,自1月份以来推出的大量新关税促使WTO经济学家重新评估贸易形势,从而大幅下调了对商品贸易的预测,并对服务贸易的前景进行了小幅下调。

  周三经济数据面,美国零售销售创两年来最大增幅。

  受汽车购买量激增影响,美国3月份零售销售显著增长,表明消费者争相赶在惩罚性汽车关税实施前购买。美国商务部周三公布的数据显示,未经通胀调整的零售销售增长1.4%,为两年多来最大升幅。不包括汽车,零售销售增长0.5%。

  焦点个股

  英伟达公司周二表示,美国政府正控制其H20芯片对部分国家和地区的出口,严重削弱了这条原本为应对先前出口管制而设计的产品线。

  英伟达周二在监管文件中表示,美国政府已于周一通知公司,H20芯片未来在出口至部分国家时需要“无限期”申请许可证。政府方面表示,新规旨在应对芯片“可能被用于或转用于中国超级计算机”的担忧。

  英伟达警告称,公司将在本财年第一季度计入大约55亿美元的费用,这些费用与H20系列芯片相关的“库存、采购承诺及相关准备金”有关。英伟达曾表示,进一步收紧出口控制只会强化其他国家摆脱美国技术依赖的决心,并将削弱美国企业的竞争力。

  AMD表示美国出口管制适用于公司的MI308产品。

  阿斯麦第一财季订单不及预期,称关税加剧今明两年前景不确定性。

  AMD、博通美光和英特尔等美股半导体股多数下跌。

  摩根士丹利将微软目标价从530美元下调至472美元。

  据美国银行警告,iPhone迁回美国生产可能导致其成本飙升超90%。

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