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  去年年底的中央经济工作会议上,“大力提振消费、提高投资效益,全方位扩大国内需求”被列为当前要抓好的重要任务之首。作为提振消费、扩大内需的重要举措,汽车以旧换新政策在推动汽车消费市场稳步增长方面起到重要作用。

  商务部数据显示,2024年汽车报废更新超过290万辆,置换更新超过370万辆,带动汽车销售额9200多亿元。继2024年以旧换新政策取得了显著成果,今年以旧换新政策覆盖范围更广、落地更早、力度更大。截至2025年4月10日,汽车以旧换新补贴申请223.2万份,其中汽车报废更新补贴申请74.7万份、汽车置换补贴申请148.5万份。

  以旧换新政策对汽车消费市场起到了推动作用主要体现在报废车辆数量增长以及带动新车销售上。瑞银曾在去年分析称,国内汽车市场销量主要来自于报废车型的替换。上一轮报废周期乘用车市场(2008至2010年)销量猛增,以15年为一个报废周期计算,目前已经达到报废年限,根据相关部门测算,这一批旧车报废和替换带来的市场需求或将达到820万辆。

  政策出台激发了消费者报废老旧车辆、购置新车购车热情。界面新闻从多位汽车销售处了解到,目前约有一半购买新能源车的消费者是为了置换,置换补贴力度加大能够促进有换购意愿的用户做出决定,并快速实施购买行为。换购方向大体上按照是燃油车置换新能源车、传统豪华品牌燃油车置换高端新能源品牌。

  今年,国家继续安排3000亿元超长期特别国债用于支持消费品以旧换新,汽车以旧换新政策的实际力度也超出市场预期,而此前业内普遍判断今年单车补贴水平将会有所调低。

  2025年汽车以旧换新政策继续实施新能源汽车车购税减免等优惠,并且扩大了汽车报废更新支持范围,将符合条件的国四排放标准燃油乘用车纳入报废更新补贴范围。对报废符合条件旧车并购买新能源乘用车补贴2万元;对报废上述符合条件燃油乘用车并购买2.0升及以下排量燃油乘用车补贴1.5万元。

  2025年的“两新”政策资金投入加大、全年实施,有望对今年汽车消费带来更大增量。同时,2026年新能源汽车免交购置税政策将会调整为减半征收,中国汽车流通协会专家王萌预测,消费者使用补贴的观望心理加上新能源购置税变动,今年年底汽车消费会再迎来一波热潮。

  各地区今年的以旧换新政策也有所创新,上海4月12日刚刚颁布的以旧换新政策将汽车置换更新补贴范围扩大至外牌旧车;西宁今年的新政策则新增了燃油汽车购置补贴政策,采用西宁市商务局与中石油青海西宁分公司政企联合补贴模式,促进汽车消费和成品油零售市场发展。

  随着政策效应的逐步显现,汽车销量呈现稳步增长态势。今年1至2月,全国报废汽车回收量同比增长50.1%,汽车以旧换新超过107万辆,带动新车销售额达1165亿元。

  乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示,新一轮两新政策发布前,市场热度较低,1月消费者多处于一种观望与等待的状态,2025年1月底政策发布后,2至3月市场热度快速增长,狭义乘用车2至3月零售最终高于此前预期。

  实际上,除了以旧换新之外,促进汽车消费的意见及政策在其余方面也有涉及。3月16日,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》,方案中三次提到汽车相关消费促进及政策引导,除以旧换新外,还包括二手车流通、减少限购。

  去年我国汽车保有量已经达到3.53亿辆,这些车辆在使用阶段会产生庞大的服务需求,带动后市场新业态的成长。

  方案提出,延伸汽车消费链条,开展汽车流通消费改革试点,拓展汽车改装、租赁、赛事及房车露营等汽车后市场消费。培育壮大二手车经营主体,持续落实二手车销售“反向开票”、异地交易登记等便利化措施。加强汽车领域信息共享,支持第三方二手车信息查询平台发展,促进二手车放心便利交易。

  王萌认为,二手车是汽车全生命周期承上启下的重要一环,疏通规范二手车交易不仅能够盘活汽车存量,还能拉动新车消费增量。中国汽车流通协会数据显示,2024年全国二手车交易量达1961.42万辆,同比增长6.52%,累计交易金额突破1.28万亿元。

  另外,针对“久摇不中”无车家庭,方案中明确提出要分年限保障这些家庭的购车需求,推动汽车等消费由购买管理向使用管理转变。随着政策逐步松绑,全面取消汽车限购将拉动数量庞大的汽车消费。

  目前,各地区正在优化汽车限购限行措施,推进购车指标精细化、差异化管理,综合运用经济、技术等多种方式,探索逐步放宽或取消限购政策。

  中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示,2025年一季度,我国汽车产量为756.1万辆,同比增长14.5%,汽车销量为747万辆,同比增长11.2%。随着我国汽车产销量的增加,产业链上下游企业的协同发展,汽车消费市场将迎来新的发展机遇。

  展望二季度,中汽协认为,相关政策组合效应持续释放,上海国际车展开启新品密集发布周期,多地促销活动火热进行,将有助于进一步释放消费潜力,延续市场增长态势。

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