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转自:新华财经

新华财经北京4月21日电(李奇涵)美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特近日表示,特朗普总统和他的团队正在研究解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否是一种选择。上周四,特朗普在社交媒体上发了一篇帖子,把矛头指向了鲍威尔,他写道,美联储应该降息,并补充说,他的“解雇来得不够快”。

尽管美联储主席是由总统任命并经国会批准的,但它是一个独立的角色。2017年11月,特朗普提名鲍威尔为美联储主席,并在次年1月被国会批准,2月正式就职;2021年11月,鲍威尔被乔·拜登总统提名连任四年,他的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月15日结束。

“总统和他的团队将继续研究这个问题,”哈塞特上周五(4月18日)在一次媒体聚会上被问及是否有可能罢免鲍威尔时表示。

为什么要换人?

鲍威尔在上周三发表的讲话中警告称,特朗普政府的贸易战可能导致美国通胀上升和经济增长放缓。这种经济组合描述了滞胀——“停滞”和“通货膨胀”的混合,表现为经济增长放缓而价格上涨加速的时期。

鲍威尔重申美联储计划暂时保持利率稳定,这也引发了特朗普的反对。

“他来得太晚了。总是太晚了。有点迟钝,而且我对他不满意。我让他知道——如果我想让他下台,他会很快离开那里的,相信我,”特朗普上周四在白宫说。

特朗普能炒鲍威尔的鱿鱼吗?

从法律角度看,总统无权随意撤换美联储主席,除非存在“正当理由”。若法院支持特朗普的立场,将重塑独立机构与当权者之间的关系格局。

1935年,美国最高法院在一项里程碑式的裁决中确认,国会有权设立独立联邦机构,除非存在“正当理由”,这些机构的董事会成员在任期结束前不得被强制离职。

去年11月特朗普当选后,美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示,若总统要求他辞职,他将拒绝。此前,特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔的表现。鲍威尔强调,法律禁止总统解雇或降职美联储主席,并指出:“国会可以修改法律,但美联储的独立性得到两党及参众两院的广泛支持,我认为这不会有风险。”

然而,据路透社上周三报道,特朗普近期解雇了另一金融监管机构——美国国家信用合作社管理局(NCUA)的两名民主党董事。今年3月,白宫还撤换了联邦贸易委员会(FTC)的两名民主党成员,而该委员会历来为独立的两党机构。

今年早些时候,特朗普政府在致国会的一封信中明确表示,其核心目标是推翻1935年的“汉弗莱执行人诉美国案”(Humphrey’sExecutorv.US)判例。该判例允许国会要求总统在解雇独立机构董事会成员时提供理由,如渎职等。若这一判例被推翻,将对国会设立的一系列独立于白宫政治影响的机构产生深远冲击。

谁是鲍威尔的接替者?

现年55岁的美联储前理事凯文·沃什(KevinWarsh)曾任摩根士丹利高管,时任总统乔治·W·布什于2006年2月提名为他美联储理事,2011年3月离开美联储。据美国媒体上周四报道,特朗普正考虑提名沃什接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。不过,报道补充称,沃什建议特朗普让鲍威尔继续留任至任期结束。

哈佛大学经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫在1月的一篇博客文章中指出,沃什备受尊敬,且被认为比鲍威尔更偏鹰派,更倾向于维持高利率以遏制通胀。

而即便特朗普有权解除鲍威尔职务,也未必能改变美联储的利率政策方向。美国货币政策由联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)决定,该委员会由12名成员组成,负责制定货币政策,而非美联储主席一人独断。

美联储丧失独立性的后果

芝加哥联储总裁奥斯坦·古尔斯比周日在接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时表示,经济学家几乎一致认为,货币政策独立性应免受政治干预。美联储或任何国家央行能够独立开展必要工作至关重要。他指出,这一结论并非理论推演,而是源于对缺乏货币独立性的国家和地区的观察——这些地区往往通胀更高、增长更慢、就业市场更糟。古尔斯比强调,绝不希望美联储陷入独立性受质疑的环境,因为这将损害其公信力。

长期以来,美国两党总统均对美联储保持不干涉态度。联邦法律规定,美联储七名理事仅可因“正当理由”被解雇,而非因政策分歧。削弱美联储独立性不仅会加剧投资者对特朗普关税政策的焦虑,还将动摇美联储对抗通胀所需的信誉。经济学家预计,关税将推高物价,而这一点使美联储的独立性尤为重要。历史表明,拥有独立央行的国家通常通胀率较低。

与此同时,美国最高法院正审理针对两个独立机构的紧急上诉,这两个机构日益成为争夺美联储控制权的代理战场。案件涉及特朗普解雇上述机构高级官员,而这些官员正寻求复职。他们警告,若特朗普在劳工委员会一案中胜诉,将为彻底改革美联储敞开大门。

前美国国家劳工关系委员会(NLRB)主席格温·威尔科克斯上周向最高法院警示:“美联储的独立性若变得不确定,将对市场造成严重冲击。”

特朗普的官员则坚称,NLRB与美联储之间并无关联。

支持美联储者认为,在鲍威尔领导下,美联储始终依据经济数据决策,致力于实现最大就业和价格稳定的双重使命,即便这些决定不受政客欢迎。事实证明,这种独立性对于美联储在必要时有效应对通胀和失业至关重要。

编辑:马萌伟

  人身险行业个人营销体制改革方案落地优化销售队伍层级

  近日,国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于推动深化人身保险行业个人营销体制改革的通知》。

  人身保险行业个人营销员也被称为“个险营销员”。根据上市险企年报披露的信息,截至2024年末,A股五家上市险企个险销售人力合计138.5万人。专家表示,《通知》提到的佣金递延发放、佣金薪酬追索扣回机制等改革将持续推动人身保险行业高质量发展。(证券日报)

  保险服务收入增长现分化险企适应新准则尚需时间

  保费收入增长未必带来保险服务收入增长,这是上市险企2024年年报揭示的最新信息。

  2024年是上市险企执行新保险合同准则的第二年。同比信息显示,不同于保费收入的悉数增长,上市险企的保险服务收入指标在这一年出现分化。其中,财险公司的保险服务收入均实现增长,寿险公司则有多家出现下滑。

  分析人士表示,目前保险服务收入指标还未受到太多关注,外界对该指标的构成、拆分和趋势尚不清晰,行业还需要适应。未来,总体仍要将关注度转向保险服务收入指标。(证券时报)

  首家撤销监事会的险企出炉更多险企有望效仿

  4月20日,北京商报记者注意到,日本财险(中国)近日发布公告称,撤销日本财险(中国)监事职位,并明确由董事会下的审计与风险管理委员会行使《中华人民共和国公司法》规定的监事会职责。自此,日本财险(中国)成为新《中华人民共和国公司法》实施以来首家撤销监事会的险企。

  在业内专家看来,目前监管制度对于监事会的职责和权限规定不够明确和具体,缺乏有效的监管机制和惩戒措施,裁撤监事会精简机构可以提高险企的运营效率,降低管理成本。(北京商报)

  北交所上市委即将于4月23日审议湖南广信科技股份有限公司(以下简称“广信科技”)的IPO申请。这家曾在2017年创业板折戟的企业,如今以“净利润三年暴增234倍”的亮眼数据卷土重来。然而,在业绩狂飙的背后,经销商“空壳化”、实控人大额负债未清等问题交织,使其IPO之路布满荆棘。 

  73%收入单据“无章可循”

  广信科技是绝缘纤维材料及其成型制品的专业供应商,产品主要应用于输变电系统、电气化铁路及轨道交通牵引变压系统、新能源产业以及军工装备等领域。

  根据北交所问询函披露,2022-2024年报告期内,广信科技73.94%的收入确认单据仅凭客户签字,未加盖公章,涉及金额高达4.26亿元。业内人士指出,此类操作可能通过提前确认收入虚增利润,若客户事后否认交易,或将引发大规模财务调整。 

  广信科技前二十大经销商中,13家员工不足10人,核心经销商沈阳市广信缘物资销售中心仅有1名员工,报告期内合计贡献数千万元销售额。该经销商实控人王洪兴同时持有广信科技股份,存在利益输送嫌疑。 

  公司应收账款异常激增。2022年到2024年前三季度,公司营收同比增速分别为31.76%、38.05%、43.60%,而各期应收款项增速分别为69.77%、2.95%、22.13%,异常变动说明可能通过放宽信用政策刺激销售。 

  “不差钱”募资争议:账上躺亿元现金仍募资补流 

  截至2024年末,广信科技账面货币资金达1.01亿元,其中98%为可随时支取的银行存款,且资产负债率仅13.59%,远低于行业均值37.84%。然而,公司仍计划募资2亿元,其中3000万元用于补流。尤其是,公司2024年短期借款清零,债务压力近乎于零。

  招股书披露,魏冬云和魏雅琴为父女关系,二人合计持有广信科技总股本的60.80%,系公司的控股股东和共同实际控制人。魏冬云、魏雅琴因对赌协议形成2400万元债务,截至报告期末仍有2000万元未偿还,需通过上市后分红、股权质押等方式筹资。 

  监管问询及市场质疑的焦点已明确指向广信科技三大核心问题一是收入真实性:经销商网络是否存在体外资金循环?二是募资必要性:低负债、高现金背景下补流是否合理?三是业绩可持续性:逆行业增长是否依赖财务调节? 

  若无法合理解释上述问题,广信科技或重蹈2017年创业板被否覆辙。而对于投资者而言,这场“高增长”盛宴背后,需关注“上市即变脸”的风险。 

  注:本文创作借助AI工具收集整理市场数据和行业信息,结合辅助观点分析和撰写成文。

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