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金价,涨疯了!

今日,金价再一次大幅拉升,现货黄金首次突破3290美元/盎司,再度刷新历史新高;COMEX黄金期货突破3300美元/盎司,同样创出新高。年初以来,金价累计涨幅已超过25%。

此轮金价上涨主要得益于避险需求,因为美国反复无常的关税计划让投资者感到不安,而疲软的美元,也为金价提供了支撑。

有券商分析师指出,若后续金价持续维持在3000美元/盎司以上,黄金公司未来的业绩中枢将会得到明显抬升,处于近10年估值底部的A股黄金股有望迎来价值重估。不过,也有市场人士提醒,近期金价涨速过快,短期应注意投资风险。

4月16日,在A股市场上,黄金股逆势活跃,特力a直线涨停,赤峰黄金、西部黄金、山东黄金、老凤祥等纷纷跟涨。

金价再创新高

在高位震荡两天后,金价再次开启大涨模式。4月16日盘中,金价大幅拉升,现货黄金先后突破3260美元/盎司、3270美元/盎司、3280美元/盎司、3290美元/盎司关口,再次创下历史新高。COMEX黄金期货突破3300美元/盎司,同样刷新了历史新高。

截至15:31,现货黄金价格报3295.34美元/盎司,日内涨幅达到2.02%,年初以来累计涨幅达到25.58%;COMEX黄金期货上涨2.20%,报3311.8美元/盎司,年初以来累计上涨25.48%。

AI识股

美国政府当地时间14日披露,已启动对半导体及药品进口对美国国家安全影响的调查。这被广泛视为对这两类产品征收关税的前奏,并有可能令美国掀起的贸易战进一步升级。另外,当地时间15日,特朗普政府就是否需要对关键矿产加征关税启动调查,再度引发市场对“贸易战”范围扩大的猜想,从而推动黄金等避险资产需求上升。

“贸易战”的加剧抑制了全球增长的前景,削弱了人们对通常安全的美国资产的信任,并扰乱了金融市场。美国不确定的关税计划让投资者感到不安,而整体疲软的美元也为金价上涨提供了支持。德国商业银行在一份报告中表示:“黄金价格的上涨在一定程度上也与美元的持续疲软相一致,这表明美元作为安全资产的地位正在逐渐削弱,黄金可能是许多美元投资者的替代品。”

短期货币政策前景也为黄金提供了进一步支撑。金融市场预计,美联储在1月份暂停降息后,将在6月份恢复降息,并在今年将政策利率下调100个基点。如今,投资者正在等待美联储主席鲍威尔的评论,他计划于当地时间周三发表讲话,以获取有关利率走势的更多线索。

机构:黄金股有望迎来价值重估

近日,投行高盛将2025年底金价目标从3300美元/盎司提高至3700美元/盎司,并预计到2026年年中金价将升至4000美元/盎司。这反映了央行购金力度超预期、衰退风险增加对ETF流入的提振,以及黄金作为避险资产的独特地位。高盛认为,由于特朗普政府在关税方面“一再翻转”,引发全球经济衰退的可能性越来越大,因此黄金价格还有进一步的上涨空间。

天风证券日前表示,“关税风云反复”的背景下,可重视金价上行趋势下黄金板块投资机会。天风证券指出,金银价格主要受关税扰动担忧升级影响,在美国全面征收关税引发全球经济衰退的担忧之后,投资者转而将美元作为避风港。与此同时,持有大量美债的外资可能抛售债券以反制关税,叠加美国众议院推进减税政策,长期美债承压。伴随关税扰动进一步深化、美债兑付风险加剧,美元信用弱化支点下持续看好黄金上行动力。

近期,“贸易战”持续升级,以及政策预期的变化,使全球金融市场动荡加剧,美国经济衰退预期加强,而美元、美债等美国资产也遭遇市场抛售。银河证券表示,美国经济衰退预期增强,且美国3月CPI数据不及预期,使市场对于美联储降息预期提升,有利于在降息周期内增持黄金的全球黄金ETF基金的配置资金加速流入。

银河证券称,美国对各国加征关税的背景下,各国与美国的摩擦加剧,对脱离美元体系的意愿加强,将使各国央行增加黄金储备。在美国经济衰退、滞胀预期升温与全球或将引发“贸易战”的背景下,市场风险偏好将会下滑,黄金资产配置战略性提升,全球黄金ETF基金与全球各国央行加速增持黄金,有望推动金价继续上涨。目前黄金价格已站稳3000美元/盎司,金价大概率继续保持涨势,若后续金价持续维持在3000美元/盎司以上,黄金公司未来的业绩中枢将会得到明显抬升,处于近10年估值底部的A股黄金股有望迎来价值重估。

申万宏源指出,央行购金主导金价,当前央行黄金储备仍偏低,全球信用格局持续重塑下金价上行趋势不改。白银方面,供给整体平稳,需求受光伏需求拉动,供需紧张状态维持,黄金价格上涨有利于白银金融属性的修复,银价维持偏强判断。建议积极关注贵金属,过去半年黄金板块整体调整较多、估值已跌至中枢下沿,板块具备修复动力及空间。

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