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铜仁市(万山区、德江县、江口县、玉屏侗族自治县、石阡县、沿河土家族自治县、印江土家族苗族自治县、松桃苗族自治县、碧江区、思南县)








合肥市(瑶海区、巢湖市、庐江县、长丰县、包河区、庐阳区、肥东县、肥西县、蜀山区)








金华市(义乌市、磐安县、永康市、武义县、金东区、婺城区、东阳市、兰溪市、浦江县)








晋中市(灵石县、平遥县、榆次区、和顺县、榆社县、太谷区、左权县、寿阳县、介休市、祁县、昔阳县)








荆州市(石首市、江陵县、松滋市、洪湖市、公安县、荆州区、监利市、沙市区)








泸州市(江阳区、古蔺县、合江县、龙马潭区、叙永县、泸县、纳溪区)








贵港市(覃塘区、港南区、平南县、桂平市、港北区)








揭阳市(普宁市、惠来县、揭东区、榕城区、揭西县)








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朔州市(怀仁市、朔城区、应县、右玉县、山阴县、平鲁区)








恩施土家族苗族自治州(宣恩县、利川市、建始县、咸丰县、鹤峰县、恩施市、巴东县、来凤县)








西藏自治区








七台河市(新兴区、桃山区、茄子河区、勃利县)

  市场回顾与分析

  一级市场回顾

  上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为3272亿、2019亿和1610亿,净融资额为-2725亿、1639亿和-720亿。金融债(不含政金债)共计发行规模1234亿,净融资额663亿。非金信用债共计发行规模2891亿,净融资额896亿。可转债新券发行1只,预计融资规模12亿元。

  二级市场回顾

  上周债市收益率大幅下行后转向震荡,曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括:资金面、中国关税反制、美国政策波动等。

  流动性跟踪

  上周央行继续回笼流动性,但市场震荡期间资金面表现偏松。最终R001和R007分别较前周下行2.3BP和下行4.1BP。

  政策与基本面

  3月国内通胀水平继续在低位运行,关税后通胀面临进一步下行的风险。高频数据来看:高频生产指标分化中上游强下游弱,房地产景气度下行,大宗商品价格大幅波动。

  海外市场

  以中国为首地区开启对美关税反制,虽其后特朗普所有让步但市场对美脱钩世界贸易体系担忧上升,美资产面临资金流失压力。10年期美债收盘在4.48%,较前周上行47BP。

  权益市场

  美国关税政策反复不定,中方开启反制。上周A股受国家队下场及部分央国企回购等消息影响,呈现较强韧性,市场在周一大幅下跌后,随后开展反攻态势,沪深300周二至周五连涨四天。具体看,上周沪深300周一下跌7.05%,随后四天反弹,周内下跌幅度收窄至2.87%,万得全A周一下跌9.26%,周内合计下跌4.31%。成交量方面,周内日均成交额1.61万亿,周度日均成交量增加4756亿。

  债市策略展望

  在中美全面对抗的背景下,以出口为代表的经济领域将不可避免得遭受较大冲击,后续财政货币双宽松加码以对冲经济下行压力有较大可能性。但短期之内央行降准降息依然有制约:一是特朗普政策目前来看不确定性依然很高,且中美谈判尚未开启,需等待明确结果后才好采取对应政策;二是当前央行稳汇率需求依然很大,一方面留有对美谈判的汇率筹码,另一方面也给非美经济体建立中国不竞争性贬值的信心;三是当前基本面尚未明显走弱,刺激政策带来的经济脉冲效应仍在。对债市而言,短期或仍保持震荡状态,等待海内外事件的进一步发酵,但长端大幅调整风险已相对可控,信用债表现预期优于利率债。转债方面,市场进入4月,转债对于外部关税冲击风险定价后,整体性价比再次提升。中方强硬反制美方肆意加征高关税、汇金大幅增持宽基ETF、数百家上市公司宣布回购计划等利好呵护下,未来海外贸易更进一步的坏消息对风险偏好的影响可能有限,重点关注国内政策应对。短期内可围绕内需、自主可控、错杀等方向展开交易。

  风险提示:本材料的信息均来源于已公开的资料,对信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本材料中的观点、分析仅代表公司研究团队观点,在任何情况下本文中的信息或表达的意见并不构成实际投资结果,也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议和担保。任何媒体、网站、个人未经本公司授权不得转载。

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