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  汇通财经APP讯——日本央行行长和田植男于周四在国会发言时指出,“美国在关税方面的政策近期出现显著不确定性上升。”

  他回顾称,在今年1月日本央行决定加息时,彼时“美国经济状况良好,金融市场稳定”。但现阶段,随着美国贸易立场趋于强硬,情况已明显不同。

  “我们将不抱预设立场,在每次政策会议上密切审视美国政策发展及其对日本经济的影响。”——日本央行行长和田植男

  日本经济温和复苏,薪资上涨支撑通胀目标

  尽管全球贸易局势不稳,日本经济本身依然呈现出“温和复苏”的格局。和田植男强调,薪资持续上涨正在推动核心通胀稳步接近日本央行设定的2%目标。

  在通胀和经济表现基本符合预期的背景下,日本实际利率仍处于极低水平。这意味着,若趋势延续,日本央行仍有空间逐步提高政策利率。

  日本政策路径面临外部扰动,关注全球关税变化

  然而,和田植男也坦言:“我们必须保持对全球贸易政策不确定性上升的高度警惕。”

  尤其是在美国近期对伊朗、亚洲大国及欧盟加征关税背景下,全球市场再度陷入避险模式,美元疲软、原油波动、全球资本流动加剧,都对日本经济构成复杂挑战。

  “当前并非制定固定加息路径的时机,日本央行需对全球经济政策传导路径保持敏感。”——据市场调查显示

  编辑观点:

  和田植男的表态表明,日本央行未来的政策将更加依赖数据和外部环境动态,而不是按照既定节奏推进加息。从本质上看,这是对全球经济碎片化、政策协调难度上升的一种应对策略。

  尤其是美国在全球范围内频繁实施关税措施,正使得全球央行从“通胀管理”转向“政策不确定性管理”。在这种背景下,日元汇率与日本利率决策的关联度将下降,而对外部政策波动的敏感度则显著上升。

  当前,密切关注日本央行下一次政策声明是否会新增“外部政策不确定性”作为风险点提示。

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