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一帆电影院|借助Writeas展现最真实的自我,书写无拘无束的文字人生。

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  来源:华尔街见闻

  大摩在报告中称,“多方”更关注短期因素,如金价上涨、门店高效率和高收入消费者韧性。“空方”则聚焦中长期风险,如需求可持续性、销售目标实现难度和金价见顶风险。

  从2024年6月IPO以来,老铺黄金股价已暴涨超过20倍,成为市场关注焦点。在当前高度不确定的宏观环境下,多空双方的争论日益激烈。

  4月16日,摩根士丹利研报称,作为中国珠宝市场的新贵,老铺黄金已成为投资界最具争议的股票之一,并在报告中详细列出了多空双方的关键论点,但并未明确站队。

  报告称,目前的老铺黄金的股价走势主要由“多方”推动,他们更关注短期因素,如金价上涨、门店高效率和高收入消费者韧性。“空方”则聚焦中长期风险,如需求可持续性、销售目标实现难度和金价见顶风险。

  大摩还在报告中特别提了需要关注的两个关键时间点:6月底的禁售期结束和8月底的中期业绩公布。

  “多方”看好的短期驱动力

  1、黄金价格代理者

  报告称,多方认为,在全球经济不确定性增加的环境下,黄金作为传统避险资产的价值凸显。老铺黄金的需求和股价表现与金价呈现高度相关性。

  据摩根士丹利数据,自2024年6月IPO以来,公司股价与上海黄金价格走势几乎同步。

  在当前资本市场波动和经济前景不明朗的情况下,黄金作为传统的防御性资产,使得老铺黄金受益,成为投资者眼中的“金价代理”。

  2、产业升级而非一时风潮

  多方认为,老铺黄金代表的高品质、高工艺、高情感价值的金饰并非短暂流行,而是整个行业的升级。

  摩根士丹利的AlphaWise消费者调查显示,消费者购买金饰主要用于自我奖励(46%)和日常佩戴(32%),而非礼品和投资。

  报告称,产品质量(工艺)、设计和产品多样性是选择珠宝品牌的三大主要因素,而老铺黄金在产品质量方面领先于主要国内外珠宝品牌。

  3、高增长、高效率、高回报率

  老铺黄金的一家店铺平均投资回收期仅为4个月。根据公司招股书,其2024年回报率达54%,2025年预计将达到75%,远高于行业对手。

  杜邦分析显示,这一高回报率源自高利润率和高资产周转率,这得益于公司纯自营模式、高端固定价格金饰产品定位以及精简的店铺网络。

  4、旺盛需求遇上有限供应

  最新AlphaWise调查显示,相对中高收入人群(月入3万以上)比低收入群体更具韧性。

  报告指出,多方认为,作为高端金饰品牌,老铺黄金更多接触这类消费者,在宏观不确定性下保持较强需求前景。

  短期内,老铺金的收入增长主要由供应驱动,新店开业/空间扩张将直接转化为额外收入贡献,几乎不会出现蚕食效应。

  “空方”担忧的中长期风险

  1、估值过高与预期过热

  摩根士丹利指出,“空方”认为,仅仅一个月时间内,市场对老铺黄金2025年利润预期已从30-40亿元上升至50-70亿元。

  如此高的预期意味着,即便业绩有轻微偏离,也可能导致股价大幅波动。

  2、门店销售目标实现难度

  “空方”认为,创始人设定的每家商场门店10亿元销售目标令人鼓舞,但如何以及何时实现这一目标尚未可知。

  老铺黄金的单店销售额已经超过其他品牌,包括国际奢侈品牌,因此很难假设能达到更高的生产力水平。

  报告指出,历史上还未见过任何品牌能在所有门店实现如此高的产出水平。即使老铺黄金能够达到这一水平,考虑到时尚周期性,其可持续性也令人担忧。

  3、时尚周期风险

  空方认为,时尚本质上是周期性的,而中国的时尚周期通常较短。当前风格流行时一切看似容易,但当时尚下行周期到来时,老铺黄金能否保持品牌核心元素和设计语言还有待观察。

  4、产品设计缺乏差异化

  摩根士丹利的AlphaWise消费者调查显示,在消费者眼中,老铺黄金与其他中国金饰品牌的设计差异有限。没有高度可识别/独特的产品,可能难以证明品牌溢价的合理性。

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