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  北京时间4月17日凌晨,美股周三尾盘跌幅扩大。英伟达发出的严厉警告给科技股带来了压力。美联储主席鲍威尔表示,关税可能令控制通胀与提振增长受到阻碍。世贸组织称特朗普关税不确定性令全球贸易前景急剧恶化。

  道指跌848.04点,跌幅为2.10%,报39520.92点;纳指跌695.03点,跌幅为4.13%,报16128.13点;标普500指数跌158.96点,跌幅为2.95%,报5237.67点。

  英伟达股价大跌逾10%,此前这家芯片巨头在一份文件中表示,与向一些地区和国家出口H20图形处理器相关的季度支出约为55亿美元。

  该公司在该文件中表示,4月9日,美国政府告诉该公司,将需要获得向部分国家与地区出口芯片的许可证。

  英伟达的文件明白无误地表明,该公司的整体增长可能会因对其芯片的出口管制增加而放缓。

  AMD、美光科技ASML等其他芯片股追随英伟达走低。

  大型科技公司也感受到了压力。MetaPlatforms、谷歌母公司Alphabet和特斯拉等普跌。

  美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也增大了美股的下行压力。

  鲍威尔周三再次强调,央行将重点防范关税驱动的物价上涨演变为更持久的通胀热。

  “我们的职责是维持长期通胀预期稳固锚定,并确保一次性的价格上升不会演变为持续性的通胀问题,”鲍威尔周三在为芝加哥经济俱乐部准备的演讲稿中说。

  他还指出,决策层将在自己促进充分就业和维持价格稳定这两个目标之间保持平衡,“同时牢记:没有价格稳定,我们就无法创造令全体美国人受益的长期强劲的劳动力市场条件。”

  这一表态强化了鲍威尔多次重点释出的信号,美联储官员并不急于调整基准政策利率。他不久前的4月4日也曾发出了这样的声音。

  鲍威尔及其他美联储决策者在等待特朗普经济政策(尤其在贸易层面)会如何影响美国经济影响的更明确信号同时,都表达了对维持利率不变的支持。

  鲍威尔说:“就目前而言,我们有良好的条件来等待形势进一步明朗,然后再考虑是否调整政策立场。”

  这位美联储主席承认,经济疲软和通胀上升最终可能使央行的两个目标产生冲突。“我们可能会发现自己处于一个具有挑战性的情境,也就是我们的双重使命目标构成了冲突,”他说,“如果发生这种情况,我们会考虑经济状况与各个目标之间的距离,以及这些差距预计弥合需要的潜在不同时间维度。”

  鲍威尔周三重申,特朗普迄今为止宣布的关税上调水平大幅高于预期。他还表示,关税极有可能至少会导致通胀暂时上升,但通胀效应也许更加持久。

  市场波动之际,投资者正努力应对不断激化的全球贸易紧张局势。

  美国已宣布对多国大幅提高关税,随后宣布对大部分国家的关税暂缓90天执行,但针对中国进口商品的关税不在暂缓之列。上周末特朗普总统宣布豁免智能手机和电脑进口关税,但随后暗示这仅是临时措施,上述产品只调整关税类别。

  特朗普周三(4月16日)表示,日本将于周三与美国就关税进行谈判。他称将与财政部长斯科特·贝森特(ScottBessent)和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克(HowardLutnick)一起出席讨论。

  特朗普本周还推进针对半导体和医药产品进口的新贸易调查,并启动提高对关键矿物关税必要性的调查,计划对相关产品额外征收关税。这是其不断扩大的贸易战中针对全球经济关键领域的最新行动。

  自特朗普政府于4月2日首次宣布其“对等”关税以来,美股主要股指均下跌了4%以上。

  安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德-埃尔-埃里安(MohamedEl-Erian)表示:“从根本上说,东西方两大国之间的懦夫博弈(gameofchicken)仍在继续,其他国家正在试图弄清楚如何驾驭这种情况。从根本上说,特朗普政府和美联储之间的懦夫博弈仍在继续。虽然市场暂时平静,但我们不应习惯这种状态,预计未来还将出现波动。”

  WTO称特朗普关税不确定性令全球贸易前景急剧恶化

  世贸组织(WTO)警告称,在特朗普关税不确定性的情况下,全球贸易前景“急剧恶化”,北美地区的商品贸易额降幅将尤为显著。

  世贸组织下调2025年贸易增长预期,警告全球经济将进一步衰退。世界贸易组织周三将全球商品贸易预期从稳健增长大幅下调至下滑,称美国进一步提高关税及其溢出效应可能导致全球商品贸易出现自新冠疫情高峰期以来最严重的下滑。

  世界贸易组织表示,预计今年货物贸易将下降0.2%,低于其10月份预测的增长3.0%,新的估计是基于本周初(美国)实施的措施。世贸组织表示,如果特朗普重新全面征收关税,将使商品贸易增长减少0.6个百分点,由于与美国相关的贸易之外的溢出效应,还将减少0.8个百分点。总的来说,这将导致1.5%的跌幅,这是自2020年以来的最大跌幅。

  根据WTO在16日发布的最新《全球贸易展望与统计》报告,在调整基线预测以考虑到最近宣布的关税和贸易政策不确定性增加的影响后,WTO经济学家现预计2025年商品贸易量将萎缩0.2%,低于2024年的增长2.9%。随后2026年商品贸易量将增长2.5%,反映出全球需求疲软。

  与此同时,全球服务贸易的增长预计将从去年的6.8%放缓至今年的4.0%,明年将回升至4.1%。

  今年年初,WTO秘书处预计2025年和2026年世界贸易将继续扩大,商品贸易将与全球国内生产总值(GDP)同步增长,服务贸易将以更快的速度增长。然而,自1月份以来推出的大量新关税促使WTO经济学家重新评估贸易形势,从而大幅下调了对商品贸易的预测,并对服务贸易的前景进行了小幅下调。

  周三经济数据面,美国零售销售创两年来最大增幅。

  受汽车购买量激增影响,美国3月份零售销售显著增长,表明消费者争相赶在惩罚性汽车关税实施前购买。美国商务部周三公布的数据显示,未经通胀调整的零售销售增长1.4%,为两年多来最大升幅。不包括汽车,零售销售增长0.5%。

  焦点个股

  英伟达公司周二表示,美国政府正控制其H20芯片对部分国家和地区的出口,严重削弱了这条原本为应对先前出口管制而设计的产品线。

  英伟达周二在监管文件中表示,美国政府已于周一通知公司,H20芯片未来在出口至部分国家时需要“无限期”申请许可证。政府方面表示,新规旨在应对芯片“可能被用于或转用于中国超级计算机”的担忧。

  英伟达警告称,公司将在本财年第一季度计入大约55亿美元的费用,这些费用与H20系列芯片相关的“库存、采购承诺及相关准备金”有关。英伟达曾表示,进一步收紧出口管制只会强化其他国家摆脱美国技术依赖的决心,并将削弱美国企业的竞争力。

  AMD表示美国出口管制适用于公司的MI308产品。

  阿斯麦第一财季订单不及预期,称关税加剧今明两年前景不确定性。

  AMD、博通美光和英特尔等美股半导体股多数下跌。

  摩根士丹利将微软目标价从530美元下调至472美元。

  据美国银行警告,iPhone迁回美国生产可能导致其成本飙升超90%。

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