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男生和女生一起差差差得很痛的APP,汇聚热门影视,尽情释放你的观影欲望!
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男生和女生一起差差差得很痛的APP,汇聚热门影视,尽情释放你的观影欲望!

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大类资产轮动展望:4月决断,应对波动率放大,待冲击落地继续攻坚。重视黄金,债券重点挖掘转债。特朗普关税政策内部阻力已初露端倪,我们预计财政进一步扩张和货币适度宽松协同配合,后续降准降息政策尚有空间以及大力提振消费有关措施有望加快落地应对特朗普“对等关税”冲击。

海内外政策要闻

李强总理主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。新华社消息,中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强4月9日下午主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会,听取对当前经济形势和下一步经济工作的意见建议。座谈会上总理表示,“外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力。我们对此已经作了充分估计,做好了应对各种不确定因素的准备”。

特朗普“对等关税”经历多番调整。自特朗普4月2日宣布对多国征收“对等关税”后,不到十天以来其关税政策经历多次调整。当地时间4月11日深夜,美国海关与边境保护局发布公告称,智能手机、路由器以及部分电脑和笔记本等产品将不再被纳入此前针对中国进口商品实施的125%所谓“对等关税”范围内。但4月14日特朗普表示,并没有宣布任何“关税豁免”。它们只是被归入了不同的关税“类别”,整体来看关税新政仍处于混乱期。

国内外政策导向分析

上周(4.7-4.11)海外政策聚焦特朗普“对等关税”经历多番调整,4月10日,特朗普团队突然宣布对75个国家实施90天“对等关税”豁免,维持最低关税税率为10%。4月11日深夜,美国海关与边境保护局发布公告称,智能手机、路由器以及部分电脑和笔记本等产品将不再被纳入此前针对中国进口商品实施的125%所谓“对等关税”范围内。但4月14日特朗普表示,并没有宣布任何“关税豁免”。它们只是被归入了不同的关税“类别”,整体来看关税新政仍处于混乱期。美国3月通胀水平全线低于预期,交易员加大对美联储降息的押注,市场几乎完全定价美联储6月降息。

上周(4.7-4.11)国内政策主要聚焦国务院总理李强同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话并主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会;中央周边工作会议召开;货币财政方面,央行发布《2025年上海信贷政策指引》以及《关于金融支持体育产业高质量发展的指导意见》;资本市场方面,上交所召开证券经营机构座谈会;深交所在北京组织召开中长期资金投资策略会;产业方面,商务部与东盟、欧盟举行视频会谈;2025年全国出口管制工作会议在京召开;半导体协会发布“原产地”认定规则的通知;地产方面,住建部&财政部发布《关于开展2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动的通知》;其他金融政策方面,金融监管总局印发《保险集团并表监督管理办法》以及《关于促进金融资产管理公司高质量发展提升监管质效的指导意见》。

1、权益:A股方面,受特朗普“对等关税”落地引发全球流动性危机抬头影响,各大指数有所回调,其中深证指数和创业板回落幅度超过5.5%。政策影响:沪深交易所分别召开经营机构座谈会;国家队入场稳定资本市场。

2、固收:受特朗普“对等关税”落地后引发央行降准预期升级影响,上周资金面整体回归宽松,央行当周总共回笼资金4897亿元(含国库现金)。4月上旬恢复回落,4月11日回落至1.65%左右。政策影响:一季度金融数据持续超预期;众议院通过共和党预算蓝图。

3、大宗商品:有色金属持续回调;原油降幅减小;贵金属V型反弹;黑色金属延续偏弱震荡;猪肉期货向上突破。政策影响:工信部日前印发2025年工业和信息化标准工作要点;国家能源局发布关于加快推进虚拟电厂指导;一季度黄金流入创三年新高;两部委发布2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动的通知;中办、国办发布《加快建设农业强国规划(2024—2035年)》。

4、外汇:上周,受市场对特朗普关税政策不确定性担忧增大影响,截止4月11日,美元指数跌至100点以下,收于99.77,周环比跌3.06%。人民币贬值压力仍在,截至4月11日报7.28。在岸人民币与NDF利差为24bp。政策影响:东盟与中日韩(10+3)财政和央行副手会召开;央行连续5个月增持黄金;新兴经济体持续货币宽松;德国CSU&CD社民党达成联合执政协议。

大类资产轮动展望:4月决断,应对波动率放大,待冲击落地继续攻坚。重视黄金,债券重点挖掘转债。特朗普关税政策内部阻力已初露端倪,我们预计财政进一步扩张和货币适度宽松协同配合,后续降准降息政策尚有空间以及大力提振消费有关措施有望加快落地应对特朗普“对等关税”冲击。

风险提示:特朗普新政不确定性超出市场预期;隐债化解落地时滞;地缘政治冲突升级。

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