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不要再进去了会被撑坏的:欲望与情感的双重纠葛

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  美国蒸馏酒委员会周四发布的《美国烈酒出口报告》显示,美国烈酒出口在2024年达到创纪录的24亿美元,这在很大程度上是由关税担忧和持续的全球贸易争端推动的。

  美国蒸馏酒委员会主席兼首席执行官克里斯・斯旺格(ChrisSwonger)表示:“美国烈酒出口在2024年创下新高。不幸的是,与我们行业无关的持续贸易争端造成了不确定性,使许多美国酿酒商持观望态度,限制了销售增长。”

  美国对欧盟烈酒出口激增39%,主要源于企业担忧欧盟可能于2025年重启50%的美国威士忌进口关税(该关税2022年暂停)。

  今年3月,特朗普威胁要对法国香槟和其他欧盟烈酒征收200%的关税,这导致欧洲各国领导人,特别是来自爱尔兰、法国和意大利的领导人,呼吁不要把恢复对波本威士忌(美国本土威士忌)的关税作为报复措施。

  该报告发现,大约50%的美国烈酒出口到欧盟,总计12亿美元,使欧盟成为其最大的出口市场。然而,对世界其他地区的出口下降了近10%,这反映出酒类行业市场整体疲软。

  美股走高,华尔街投资者权衡特朗普发动的贸易战对美国企业界的影响,交易员押注美联储可能会比预期更早降息,以防止经济陷入衰退。

  标普500指数上涨2%至特朗普披露对等关税以来的最高水平,大型科技股领涨。

  衡量市场恐慌情绪的VIX周四下跌近2点,收于26.47,为本月关税引发市场动荡以来的最低收盘水平。

  美国航空撤回对全年盈利的预期,但该股仍收高。

  百事可乐股价下跌,该公司每股收益罕见未达预期,并因全球贸易不确定性而下调了对全年利润的预期。

  华尔街最大的多头之一正在放弃对今年股市大幅上涨的预期,认为关税对美国企业造成最沉重打击;BankimChadha领导的德意志银行策略师团队将年底标普500指数目标下调至6,150点。

  Chadha的团队还预计标普500指数今年盈利将下降5%,而普遍预期为增长8%。

  摩根士丹利财富管理市场研究与策略团队主管DanielSkelly表示:“投资者应继续着眼于长期,关注那些盈利实现能力强、受关税影响有限、资产负债表质量良好的公司”。

  虽然美股终于找到了喘息的空间,但高盛集团资金流动团队表示,这并不意味着令市场惶恐不安的压力点已经消失,“就像在纽约四月份80华氏度的气温下,还没到我一头扎进游泳池的时候”。

  截至收盘,标普500指数上涨2%,报5484.77点;

  道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.2%,报40093.4点;

  纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.7%,报17166.04点;

  纳斯达克100指数上涨2.8%,报19214.4点;

  罗素2000指数上涨2%,报1957.589点。

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