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  4月16日,现货黄金快速拉升,截至中午突破3290美元/盎司关口,再创历史新高。“金价”也再次冲上热搜。

  与此同时,国内品牌金饰价格仍维持在历史高位。周生生足金饰品价格突破千元每克,报价来到1007元/克;周大福和周六福的足金饰品价格均为990元/克。

  消息面上,因美国总统特朗普对关键矿产发起调查,市场避险情绪升温。不断升级的贸易担忧情绪使投资者持续撤离风险资产,转向避险资产。

  分析人士预计在全球政经不确定性未消的背景下,金价中期仍具上行潜力。

  面对黄金价格的再度突破,市场对其未来是否会重演“V型”走势格外关注。国是金融改革智库首席专家刘胜军向媒体分析,此前黄金价格的剧烈波动主要源于市场观点的分歧。当黄金价格在短时间内快速上涨后,部分投资者会选择获利了结,这种现象属于市场正常表现。

  “但从长远来看,受国际局势的复杂性以及美国政策不确定性的影响,市场避险需求依然强劲,各国央行尤其是中国央行的持续购金行为也在支撑黄金价格。黄金价格涨势远没有结束,未来四年内仍有较大涨幅空间,”刘胜军分析认为。

  从央行购金数据来看,2022年,全球央行净购买1082吨黄金,相较于此前的450吨大幅提升,创下历史最高。2023年,再度净购买1037.4吨,接近全年黄金供应量的20%。

  截至2024年3月,中国央行黄金储备为7274万盎司,环比继续上升16万盎司。值得注意的是,这已经是中国央行连续第17个月增加,累计增持高达1010万盎司,约合286吨。

  美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯在接受采访时表示,美国总统特朗普反复无常的政策行动和言论正在侵蚀全球市场对美元的信任,金价的大幅上涨正是这种不确定性的体现。

  当地时间4月15日,美国银行发布的调查报告显示,在过去两个月内,全球投资者创纪录地大幅减持美国股票。在美国银行对基金经理进行的4月月度调查中,受访的基金经理的美股净仓位减少了36%。有49%的基金经理表示,“做多黄金”目前是最拥挤的交易策略,结束了连续24个月的“做多美股科技七巨头”的策略。61%的基金经理预期美元将在未来12个月内贬值,这是2006年5月以来的最高水平。

  华尔街巨头们也纷纷大幅上调黄金的价格展望。

  高盛在最新报告中将2025年黄金目标价从此前的每盎司3300美元上调至3700美元,上调幅度高达12%,也是该机构年内最激进的一次上调动作。

  瑞银预计,由于全球贸易和地缘政治背景的变化增强了避险资产的配置需求,该行分析师JoniTeves预计,金价到2025年12月将达到每盎司3500美元。

  德银的预测则显示,到2025年底,黄金价格将达到3350美元/盎司;如果央行需求在2025年底前保持高位但随后回落至2011—2021年的常态,2026年黄金平均价格可能为3500美元/盎司;如果高需求持续到2026年底,则2026年平均价格可能达到3900美元/盎司。

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