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  美联储主席鲍威尔周三在讲话中表示担心,美联储可能会在控制通胀和支持经济增长之间陷入两难境地。

  随着特朗普总统的关税将产生何种影响的不确定性上升,这位央行行长表示,尽管他预计通胀会上升,经济增长会放缓,但目前还不清楚美联储需要把更多的注意力放在哪里。

  鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表的事先准备好的讲话中说:“我们可能会发现自己处于一个充满挑战的局面,我们的双重使命目标处于紧张状态。如果发生这种情况,我们将考虑经济离每个目标还有多远,以及这些差距有望在多长时间内缩小。”

  美联储的任务是确保物价稳定和充分就业,包括美联储内部人士在内的经济学家认为,征税对这两方面都构成了威胁。关税本质上相当于对进口商品征税,尽管从历史上看,关税与通胀的直接联系并不明显。

  鲍威尔在演讲结束后的问答环节中表示,关税“可能会使我们离我们的目标更远”。

  鲍威尔没有说明他对利率走向的看法,但他指出,“目前,在考虑对我们的政策立场进行任何调整之前,我们很好地准备等待更明确的情况。”

  鲍威尔讲话后,美股触及日低,美国国债收益率转低。

  在通胀上升的情况下,美联储将保持利率稳定,甚至提高利率以抑制需求。在经济增长放缓的情况下,美联储可能会被说服降低利率。鲍威尔强调了控制通胀预期的重要性。

  根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CMEGroup)的美联储观察(Fedwatch)指标,市场预计美联储将在6月再次开始降息,并在2025年底前降息3到4个0.25个百分点。

  美联储官员通常认为,关税对价格是一次性的打击,但特朗普关税的扩张性可能会改变这一趋势。

  鲍威尔指出,调查和基于市场的短期通胀指标正在上升,尽管长期前景仍接近美联储2%的目标。他说,美联储的主要通胀指标预计将显示3月份的通胀率为2.6%。

  鲍威尔说:“关税极有可能导致通货膨胀至少暂时上升。”“通胀效应也可能更加持久。避免出现这种结果将取决于影响的大小,取决于这些影响需要多长时间才能完全传导到价格上,最终取决于能否很好地稳定长期通胀预期。”

  这次演讲与他本月早些时候在弗吉尼亚州发表的演讲大体相似,有些段落也逐字逐句。

  鲍威尔指出了对经济增长和通胀的威胁。

  将于本月晚些时候公布的第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)预计将显示,美国经济在1-3月期间几乎没有增长。

  事实上,鲍威尔指出:“目前掌握的数据表明,第一季度的经济增长已经从去年的强劲增长放缓。尽管汽车销售强劲,但整体消费者支出似乎温和增长。此外,第一季度强劲的进口,反映出企业试图赶在潜在的关税之前行动,预计将拖累GDP增长。”

  当天早些时候,美国商务部报告称,3月份零售额增长1.4%,好于预期。报告显示,增长的很大一部分来自希望在关税之前购买汽车的买家,尽管其他多个行业也显示出强劲的增长。

  报告发布后,亚特兰大联邦储备银行表示,在调整黄金进出口的异常增长后,预计第一季度GDP增速为-0.1%。鲍威尔称,尽管经济增长预计会放缓,但美国经济仍处于“稳固的地位”。

  美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示,市场希望美联储出手平息波动的预期可能是错误的。当被问及美联储是否会干预以应对股市的剧烈下跌时,美联储主席鲍威尔表示:“我的回答是不会,但我会给出解释。”

  鲍威尔在芝加哥出席会议时说:“我认为市场正在消化当前的形势,市场正在应对大量的不确定性,而这意味着波动性。“鲍威尔说,鉴于美国总统特朗普的关税制度正在发生巨大变化,市场会遇到困难是可以理解的。

  他还解释说,很难实时知道是什么造成了麻烦。鲍威尔表示:“我有过很多重大市场波动的经验,比如债券市场。通常人们会形成一个想法,两个月后再回头看,发现当初的看法完全错误。因此,现在就断定市场发生了什么,还为时过早。”

  他指出,市场的动荡部分源于对冲基金削减杠杆或债务,并补充道:“短期内,你可能会继续看到市场的波动性。”

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