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  今年以来,房地产市场延续止跌回稳趋势。

  从楼市成交来看,克而瑞研究中心根据自然资源部和国家统计局数据估算,一季度,全国一二手房成交总量同比增长10%,其中二手房率先大幅增长34.7%。

  从土地市场来看,据中指研究院统计,1—4月,22个重点城市月度平均溢价率均在20%左右。4月土拍热度不减,多地相继拍出高溢价地块,其中,4月22日,杭州两宗地溢价率分别达到59.4%、74.4%。

  业内人士认为,一季度房地产市场正式迎来交易规模的企稳信号,尽管4月新房成交增长动能转弱,但二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。核心城市优质地块土拍竞争激烈,预计这些项目未来将多开发为改善型产品,有助于促进改善性住房需求释放,推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 

  一二手房成交总量同比增长10%

  近日,自然资源部公布的数据显示,一季度,全国办理存量商品房转移登记164.6万件,同比增长34.7%。克而瑞研究中心指出,这是官方公开披露的全国二手房交易规模数据。

  而国家统计局的数据显示,1—3月份,全国新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米,同比下降3%。克而瑞研究中心据此估算,一季度全国商品房成交大约219万套。

  克而瑞研究中心认为,相比一季度一手房的持续筑底而言,二手房市场先一步迎来大幅上涨,并拉动一季度一二手房成交总量达到383万套,同比增长10%。2025年初房地产市场也正式迎来了交易规模的企稳信号。

  从4月的成交情况来看,据克而瑞研究中心监测,重点26城4月上半月成交面积达317.17万平方米,环比下降14%,与去年同期基本持平。同比来看,一线城市率先回稳,4月上半月成交量较去年同期增长32%;二线和三四线城市则同比分别下降10%和8%,更多是局部复苏。

  对于未来市场走势,克而瑞研究中心认为,今年以来楼市处于止跌回稳通道中,2月市场止跌企稳,3月传统营销旺季来临新房成交达到年度高点,而4月新房成交增长动能转弱,全月成交预计将环比回落。不过由于去年基数较低,同比或延续持平,二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。

  重点城市土拍溢价率持续保持20%左右

  不仅楼市成交企稳,土地市场热度也不断升温。

  据中指研究院统计,1—4月,22个重点城市月度平均溢价率均在20%左右。4月土拍热度不减,北京、杭州、成都、苏州、重庆、南京相继拍出高溢价地块,其中,4月22日,杭州萧山区两宗地溢价率分别为59.4%、74.4%;4月1日,杭州出让的8宗地中有4宗溢价率超50%;4月7日,重庆渝北区新牌坊地块溢价率达38.9%;4月2日,苏州姑苏区地块以溢价率23.8%成交。

  同时,在核心城市土拍带动下,土地出让金同比增长显著,今年截至4月22日,300城住宅用地出让金同比增长20.1%。

  今年以来,房企投资聚焦核心城市,央国企资金优势凸显。据中指研究院统计,今年截至4月22日,22个重点城市溢价成交(溢价率>0)宅地中,央国企拿地金额占比达58%,民企拿地金额占比升至24%,主要是滨江一季度补仓力度较大,带动民企整体拿地占比提升。高溢价率地块来看,22个重点城市宅地溢价率在70%以上的地块中,央国企的占比达70%。

  从重点房企布局城市来看,北京、杭州、上海、成都等是房企要进驻或深耕城市。据中指研究院监测,一季度共8家房企拿地金额超百亿元,其中5家房企拿地最多的城市均为北京,2家房企在杭州拿地居首位,中海、建发在北京+杭州拿地金额占比分别达76%、65%。

  对于当前的土地市场,中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为,核心城市土拍升温传递出一个重要信号,即随着限价政策逐步退出,“政府保障基本住房需求、市场满足多层次多样化住房需求”的趋势正在加快形成,让商品住房回归商品属性也是近年来构建市场+保障的住房供应体系的应有之义。未来企业通过开发高品质改善型产品,有助于进一步撬动住房消费潜能释放,推动房地产市场止跌回稳。同时,也需看到,当前房地产市场仍处于修复阶段,房企普遍采取“聚焦核心城市”的投资策略,这一策略一定程度上导致核心城市土拍竞争加剧,也是多地土拍高溢价的重要原因,而除部分核心城市外,更多城市的土地市场短期仍面临压力。

  来源:天下事

  印控克什米尔发生针对游客的恐怖袭击后,4月24日,印度发布紧急声明:“强烈建议印度国民避免前往巴基斯坦。目前在巴基斯坦的印度国民也建议尽快返回印度。”

  巴基斯坦在一份声明中表示,所有与印度的贸易,包括途经巴基斯坦往返任何第三国的贸易,均立即暂停。巴基斯坦领空将立即对所有印度拥有或运营的航空公司关闭。

  在印度宣布关闭阿塔里边境的第二天,巴基斯坦也宣布关闭瓦加边境,禁止“来自印度的跨境过境……无一例外”。

  22日,印控克什米尔发生针对游客的恐怖袭击,造成25名印度公民和1名尼泊尔公民死亡,另有数人受伤。当地时间23日晚间,作为对22日印控克什米尔恐怖袭击事件的回应,印度宣布采取一系列外交和战略反制措施。

  23日晚间,印度内阁安全委员会决定:

  ●印度立即暂停执行《印度河河水条约》,停止河水共享的合作,直到巴基斯坦“可信且不可撤销地”放弃对跨境恐怖主义的支持。

  ●关闭印巴之间印度一侧的阿塔里综合检查站。

  ●禁止巴基斯坦公民持南亚区域合作联盟免签计划(SVES)签证前往印度。此前签发给巴基斯坦公民的任何SVES签证均视为已取消。目前持SVES签证在印度的巴基斯坦公民必须在48小时内离开印度。

  ●巴基斯坦驻新德里高级专员署的全部军事顾问被宣布为不受欢迎的人,他们必须在一周内离开印度;印度将从驻伊斯兰堡的印度高级专员署撤回印度军事顾问;自2025年5月1日起,巴基斯坦驻新德里高级专员署的总人数将从目前的55人减少到30人。

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