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爹地又来找抽了|的未来发展展望

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  ◎记者操子怡

  近日,上海市统计局发布一季度全市经济运行情况。至此,长三角“三省一市”均已披露一季度经济成绩单,沪苏浙皖当期地区生产总值(GDP)分别达到1.27万亿元、3.31万亿元、2.23万亿元和1.23万亿元,增速分别为5.1%、5.9%、6.0%和6.2%。亮眼成绩的背后,离不开开局即冲刺与产业结构提质向新。

  开年拼经济

  重大项目是经济增长的助推器。开年伊始,长三角各地全力抓项目、扩投资,奋力实现一季度“开门红”。

  1月2日,2025年安徽全省第一批重大项目开工动员会在合肥举行,622个项目总投资4057.5亿元,年度计划投资1119.8亿元。2月8日,浙江省委、省政府举行全省2025年一季度重大项目集中开工活动。浙江11设区市齐上阵,150个重大项目亮相,总投资超3500亿元,年度计划投资超360亿元。2月20日,上海临港新片区举行2025年“开门红”重大项目集中签约暨重点企业表彰大会。会上,41家企业集体签约落地临港新片区,总投资额428亿元……

  数据显示,今年一季度,上海实现GDP12735.06亿元,同比增长5.1%,高于去年全年和去年一季度0.1个百分点。江苏实现GDP33088.6亿元,同比增长5.9%,超出全国平均水平0.5个百分点。

  “今年以来,安徽经济起势有力,快于上年全年及同期,延续了回升向好态势,高质量发展取得新进展。”4月21日,安徽省统计局在发布一季度安徽经济运行情况时如是表示。一季度,安徽实现GDP12265亿元,同比增长6.2%,增速创下近三年同期最好水平。

  产业结构向新

  今年1月,国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心具身智能训练场在位于上海张江的“模力社区”正式启用。过去一年,机器人等新兴产业从实验室走向产业化,长三角多地陆续出台产业政策、打造产业园区,促进新兴产业快速发展。

  上海统计局数据显示,今年一季度,上海三大先导产业——集成电路、人工智能、生物医药分别增长8.9%、13.2%和2.8%。铁路、船舶、航空航天等制造业,以及新一代信息技术产业、高端装备、工业机器人等战略性新兴产业,均实现两位数增长。

  从年初DeepSeek和宇树科技的爆火,到各地党政代表团轮番造访杭州,民营经济发达的浙江今年备受关注。一季度,浙江交出了一份亮丽的成绩单——GDP22300亿元,同比增长6.0%,高于全国平均水平0.6个百分点。

  浙江省统计局工业统计处处长徐璐介绍,一季度,浙江高技术制造业、装备制造业、数字经济核心产业制造业、战略性新兴产业增加值同比分别增长13.2%、13.1%、12.3%和10.3%,增速均高于全部规模以上工业增速。工业机器人(54.1%)、新能源汽车(47.6%)等产品产量快速增长。

  数据显示,一季度,江苏高新技术产业产值占规上工业总产值的比重达51.4%,比去年全年提升0.7个百分点。

  皖浙出口增速均超10%

  “我们有最完善的玩具产业链,无论价格和品质都具备很强优势,国外很难替代,好产品一定会有好订单。”在义乌经营燃油车模、船模、航模等商铺的潜春海表示。今年以来,国际形势变化给外贸行业带来影响,但在长三角,类似潜春海这样的外贸人依然在寻找新机遇。

  一季度,浙江外贸进出口总额1.29万亿元,增长7.3%,对全国增长贡献率居全国首位。其中出口总额9707.5亿元,增长11.1%。一季度,长三角区域进出口总额3.87万亿元,占全国比重达37.6%,比重较去年进一步提升。其中,安徽省进出口增速高出全国11.8个百分点。

  在安徽最大的货运、外贸和集装箱枢纽港——芜湖港,一排排整齐排列的崭新汽车正在等待装船,运往世界各地。今年一季度,安徽电动汽车、锂离子蓄电池、光伏产品出口总额达172.7亿元,同比增长58.3%。

  合肥海关相关负责人表示,近年来,安徽省民营企业逐渐由“生产”到“出品”,自主品牌商品出口增长快、占比高,品牌国际影响力不断提升。

  转自:财联社

  美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(ChristopherWaller)表示,如果特朗普政府恢复激进的关税水平,美国企业可能会加大裁员力度,如果失业率显著上升,他将支持美联储降息。

  当地时间周四(4月24日),沃勒在接受媒体采访时说道,“如果高关税再度生效,未来可能会出现更多裁员,失业率也会上升,这并不会让我感到意外。”

  沃勒补充称,“一旦劳动力市场出现严重恶化,我预计会进一步降息,而且降息会更快。”

  本月初,特朗普签署行政令,宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收“对等关税”。但后来,特朗普又表示,对部分国家暂停加征关税90天,但保留10%的所谓基础关税。

  沃勒强调,他认为关税在7月之前不会对经济产生重大影响,但如果7月之后高关税重新生效,失业率可能会上升,而且上升速度很快。

  但沃勒认为,关税带来的通胀冲击“可能只是暂时性的”。“我不会因关税导致的通胀上行而过度反应,但如果劳动力市场明显恶化,那么我认为美联储在就业目标上的介入就很重要。”

  先前,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,当前美国经济形势良好,失业率为4%,通胀率接近美联储2%的目标,因此美联储“不急于”降息。

  但鲍威尔也表示,如果劳动力市场“意外降温”或者通胀率比预期下降更快,美联储将会相应调整政策。

  日内早些时候,克利夫兰联储主席哈马克(BethHammack)称,如果能掌握经济走向的明确证据,央行最早可能在6月份调整利率。

  哈马克补充说,5月会议前官员们不太可能拿到足够信息,但之后的会议若获得更多关于增长和通胀走向的证据,就可能采取行动。

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