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澳门特别行政区

  懂酒谛

  作者︱田野

  在高端白酒赛道,听花酒凭借“万元酒”定位曾引发热议,亦曾经历如被央视“315晚会”曝光的舆论暴击。

  然而,其母公司青海春天(ST春天)如今却深陷退市泥沼,面对能否成功“保壳”的未知命运,其自身正在经历一场关乎企业存亡的危机。

  审计警报拉响

  ST春天撞“线”

  最近,有关青海春天的一则阶段性审计说明,如惊雷般炸响资本市场,导致其股价跌停。

  政旦志远会计师事务所初步判定,ST春天经调整后的营收或跌破3亿元红线,这一数字直接触碰上交所财务类退市规则。

  消息公布后,公司股价连续两日一字跌停,截至今日,其股价已跌至3.80元/股,市值较历史高点蒸发超80%。

  在这场听花酒局背后,所带来的市值崩塌,不仅是投资者的财富缩水,更折射出作为公众公司的ST春天,将其核心产品维系于高端酒市场,这一决策背后所潜藏着的企业经营的脆弱性。

  股价过山车:

  从“妖股”到ST,资本信心崩塌

  青海春天的股价走势堪称“魔幻”。

  2024年3月15日,听花酒因虚假宣传被央视3·15晚会曝光,公司股价随后连续走出6个跌停,市值缩水近40%。

  再之后,公司于5月6日被实施ST,股价一度因“退市风险”预期跌至1.84元;随后,市场对其“摘帽”持有乐观情绪,股价于是反弹至3.48元。

  这种剧烈波动背后,是投资者对公司基本面的极度担忧。2024年业绩预告显示,青海春天预计全年亏损1.45亿至1.74亿元,连续五年扣非净利润为负。若2025年未能实现营收3亿元或扭亏,公司将面临强制退市。

  财务黑洞:

  五年亏超12亿,销售费用吞噬利润

  在2020年至2024年的最近5年里,青海春天累计亏损超12.7亿元,其财务状况堪称“触目惊心”。

  其中,2020年亏损3.2亿元,2021年亏损2.49亿元,2022年亏损2.88亿元,2023年亏损2.68亿元,2024年预计亏损1.45亿至1.74亿元。

  公司亏损的主因,是“烧钱式”营销。以2023年为例,销售费用达1.71亿元,占营收的79.97%,其中广告宣传费0.78亿元,而同期酒水业务毛利率仅63.7%,销售费用率远超行业平均水平。

  更严峻的是,公司现金流持续恶化。尽管2023年经营性现金流量净额转正至2392万元,但2024年一季度再次转负,显示销售回款能力薄弱。

  此外,公司对投资、存货等计提减值损失,进一步侵蚀利润。

  听花酒困局:

  5.86万/瓶的“智商税”,市场信任危机

  作为青海春天的核心业务,听花酒的最高标价为58600元/瓶,因其宣称“提升免疫力、改善睡眠、调节性功能”等功效被3·15晚会曝光。

  事件导致听花酒被电商平台下架,多地市场监管部门立案调查,子公司被罚180万元。

  尽管2024年5月听花酒恢复线下销售,并推出“限量配额”“精品装出口”等策略,但市场反应冷淡。

  2024年上半年,ST春天的酒水业务营收5000万元,同比增长45.95%;四季度营收1.13亿至1.41亿元,同比增长111.62%至164.53%;全年预计仍将亏损超1.45亿元,显示高价策略难以为继。

  尽管2024年的营收数据耀眼,但被年审会计师质疑缺乏商业合理性。例如,经销商众香国、苏州金独花12月销售额异常增长,期后库存积压严重,退货风险未完全排除。

  目前,年审会计师已对其收入确认、关联交易等事项提出质疑,可能出具“无法表示意见”,导致2024年年报被否决。经会计师审计,若调整后营收不足3亿元,公司将直接退市。

  转型阵痛:

  冬虫夏草折戟,跨界白酒失败

  青海春天的困境源于多次战略失误。早期依靠冬虫夏草产品“极草”起家,但2016年因砷超标被禁售,转型白酒后又陷入虚假宣传漩涡。

  2018年收购西藏听花酒业后,公司将资源集中于高端白酒,但缺乏品牌积淀与渠道优势,最终沦为“营销驱动”的空壳。

  更讽刺的是,公司为听花酒投入的“诺奖背书”、“专利包装”等营销手段,反而成为监管部门重点打击对象。2024年,青海春天因违法宣传累计被罚380万元,品牌信誉严重受损。

  退市倒计时:

  国资重组或成唯一出路

  面对退市风险,青海春天正试图通过资产重组自救。2024年5月,公司宣布调整听花酒价格、限量供货并转向出口,试图重塑高端形象。但分析人士认为,这些措施难以扭转颓势。

  而市场更关注的是国资介入的可能性。2025年2月,青海省国资委提出“深化国企重组整合”,推动盐湖产业等领域的资源整合。

  若青海春天能引入国资战略投资者,或通过资产重组剥离亏损业务,或有一线生机。但目前尚无相关进展披露,公司退市风险仍高悬头顶。

  一场“智商税”游戏的终结

  青海春天的困境,本质是过度依赖营销而非产品力的必然结果。从冬虫夏草到天价白酒,公司的每一次转型都以“概念炒作”为核心,却忽视了消费品行业的根本逻辑——品牌价值与消费者信任。

  如今,股价暴跌、财务恶化、监管重罚交织,这家被誉为“故事大王”的企业能否在退市前找到救赎之路,目前仍是未知数。

  不过,对于投资者而言,ST春天的经历或许可以为投资者、为张雪峰提供一个警示:在资本市场,没有真正的“玄学”,只有脚踏实地的经营!信“太上老君”,并不能带来幸运!

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