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  中新社北京4月25日电题:中央政治局会议释楼市新信号,明确“持续巩固”稳定态势

  中新社记者庞无忌

  25日召开的中共中央政治局会议对房地产市场的表述发生变化。会议指出,加快构建房地产发展新模式,加大高品质住房供给,优化存量商品房收购政策,持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。

  与去年年末召开的中央经济工作会议和今年全国两会政府工作报告“持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳”的表述相比,此番会议对房地产市场的表述变为“持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势”,反映去年四季度以来,稳楼市各项政策显效,房地产市场持续向着止跌回稳的方向迈进。

  作为观察楼市走势的先行指标,今年以来,中国部分城市土地市场表现活跃。据中指研究院统计,今年前四个月,22个重点城市土地成交月度平均溢价率从去年年末的5%-10%升至20%左右。

  分析认为,在这一新形势下,此番政治局会议通过“优存量”与“拓增量”双轨并行、“提质”与“稳量”同步推进、短期稳定与长期发展统筹兼顾,推动房地产市场进入“量稳质升”的新阶段。

  其一,“优存量”与“拓增量”双轨并行。

  在优化存量方面,此番会议提及,加力实施城市更新行动,有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造;优化存量商品房收购政策。存量优化调整也有利于增量市场的活跃。

  广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为,城市更新的范围包括城市市政基础设施更新、老旧小区改造以及城中村和危旧房改造等。其对稳投资、带动上下游产业的作用非常显著。下一步,城市更新行动有望迎来创新性专项债、中长期国债以及创新性货币政策等的支持。

  中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静指出,随着城市更新行动推进,今年以来已有不少城市出台配套的房票安置政策。据中指监测,今年以来超20个地方优化房票政策。近期厦门扩大房票使用范围至二手房,且继续鼓励房票用于购买新房,将进一步打通一二手链条,促进市场库存去化。

  中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出,存量商品房收购是促进房地产市场止跌回稳、保障和改善民生的重要抓手,地方在实施过程中还面临一些堵点,需要在收购主体、价格和用途方面给予城市政府更大自主权,并及时研究推出新的支持措施。

  其二,“提质”与“稳量”同步推进。

  在稳楼市政策“组合拳”推动房地产市场交易保持平稳同时,此番会议明确提出加大高品质住房供给。李宇嘉表示,目前激活楼市需求的一个重要抓手就是利用“好房子”等供给侧的产品创新牵引和拉动需求,从而带动新房和二手房、刚需和改善性住房的良性循环,既提质又稳量。今年楼市的一大特点就是大量高品质的改善性住宅项目集中入市,激活需求。

  陈文静指出,今年,“好房子”首次被写入政府工作报告。3月,住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》,并将在5月1日落地实施,部分城市也发布了“好房子”建设相关标准,预计未来相关政策将进一步完善,更多城市落地标准规范,助力高品质住房建设,“好房子”供应有望放量。

  其三,短期稳定与长期发展统筹兼顾。

  在强调“持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势”的同时,会议还提出加快构建房地产发展新模式。

  陈文静表示,加快构建房地产发展新模式,有利于行业中长期平稳健康发展,预计2025年更多新模式的相关配套政策将进一步完善、落地。

  58安居客研究院院长张波认为,这标志着房地产行业从规模扩张转向质量提升的转型路径进一步清晰,也将引导房地产行业从“增量扩张”向“品质竞争”转变。(完)

  汇通财经APP讯——油价周五小幅走高,但周线下跌,受市场对供应过剩的预期以及关税谈判不确定性的打压,布伦特原油期货结算价上涨32美分,至每桶66.87美元,本周累计下跌1.6%。美国原油上涨23美分,至每桶63.02美元,周跌幅为2.6%。

  由于关税引发投资者对全球需求的担忧以及金融市场的抛售,油价本月早些时候跌至四年来的最低点。盛宝银行分析师OleHansen表示:“由于全球最大消费国之间持续的贸易战,以及市场猜测OPEC+可能从6月起加速增产,交易商现在认为短期内原油价格不太可能进一步上涨。”

  OPEC+成员正在推动6月大幅增产,此前该组织已在5月意外增产41.1万桶/日,超出原计划的13.8万桶/日。需求预估因贸易紧张局势持续而被削减,OPEC+内部的进一步分歧可能导致价格战。哈萨克斯坦表示无法降低石油产量,计划优先考虑国内利益而非履行OPEC+义务。

  不过,布伦特原油近期价差仍保持支撑,处于近1美元/桶的逆价差状态,显示现货市场供应紧张。美国能源信息署数据显示,原油库存上周增加24.4万桶,与美国石油协会前一天报告的475万桶降幅相悖。成品油库存变化较为积极,汽油和馏分油库存分别减少448万桶和235万桶,汽油需求周环比增加95.2万桶/日。汽油库存已连续八周下降,降至去年12月以来的最低水平,推动RBOB裂解价差上升。

  荷兰国际专家指出,由于OPEC+内部不和,油价未能跟随其他风险资产上涨,涨幅受限。

  尽管经济疲软可能会削弱需求,但供应可能会增加。据路透本周早些时候报道,OPEC+的几个成员国建议该组织在6月份连续第二个月加速增产。

  此外,据央视,当地时间4月25日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台上表示,当日与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判和会晤进展顺利。特朗普表示,他们“非常接近”达成协议,双方现在应该进行高层会晤,以“结束战争”。

  特朗普称,大部分主要议题都已达成一致。当地时间4月25日,俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫透露,美国总统特朗普的特使威特科夫周五在莫斯科与俄罗斯总统普京举行了三个小时的会谈,讨论美国结束乌克兰战争的计划,克里姆林宫表示,双方的立场已经更加接近。

  参加此次会议的克里姆林宫外交政策助理YuriUshakov称,此次会议具有建设性,非常有益。“这次会谈使俄罗斯和美国的立场更加接近,不仅在乌克兰问题上,而且在其他一些国际问题上。至于乌克兰危机本身,讨论的重点是俄罗斯和乌克兰的代表恢复直接谈判的可能性。”

  如果乌克兰战争结束,更多的俄罗斯石油能够进入全球市场,那么也有可能增加石油供应。

  俄罗斯政府周四表示,俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克与伊朗石油部长穆赫辛·帕克内贾德举行了会晤。除其他话题外,诺瓦克和帕克内贾德还讨论了能源领域关键基础设施项目的实施以及各国在欧佩克+协议下的合作。

  帕克内贾德表示:“我们相信,俄罗斯将继续在欧佩克+框架内发挥稳定作用,实现全球能源市场的平衡。”

  油价下周重点聚焦俄乌协议方面的进一步消息,若再传积极消息,有利于释放俄罗斯原油的供应,此外,重点关注关税相关消息和下周五的非农数据,下周二特朗普举行上任100日集会,或许在关税方面,发布一些言论,若关税紧张缓和,美油有望测试60美元/桶关口,反之,短线美油有望再度测试65美元/桶关口。

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