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  来源:华尔街见闻

  韩国海关总署数据显示,4月前20天(经工作日调整后),韩国对外出口额同比下滑5.2%,这与3月份的5.5%增长形成鲜明对比。分国别来看,4月前20天,韩国对美国和中国的出口分别下滑14.3%和3.4%,而对欧盟的出口则增长13.8%。

  韩国4月贸易数据首次曝光了特朗普激进保护主义政策对出口导向型经济体的实质性冲击。

  韩国海关总署周一公布的数据显示,4月前20天(经工作日调整后),韩国对外出口额同比下滑5.2%,这与3月份的5.5%增长形成鲜明对比。这一数据反映了美国贸易保护主义政策可能引发的全球供应链断裂风险,韩国作为“金丝雀”敲响了全球出口型经济体可能面临的警钟。

  分国别来看,4月前20天,韩国对美国和中国的出口分别下滑14.3%和3.4%,而对欧盟的出口则增长13.8%。从品类来看,同期韩国汽车出口同比下降6.5%,半导体出口则增长10.7%。钢铁出口下降8.7%,油品销售暴跌22%。

  关税风暴引发全球连锁反应

  综合央视报道,在3月份提高金属进口关税后,特朗普本月早些时候又对汽车进口征收25%的关税,对所有其他进口商品征收10%的关税。特朗普的贸易保护主义政策对韩国这类出口驱动型经济体构成的风险。

  ING经济学家MinJooKang在一份报告中表示:

  央行表示,由于美国贸易政策和国内政治不确定性的影响,增长比预期更为疲软,并警告称经济可能在第一季度出现负增长。

  财联社4月21日电,人民银行研究局局长王信4月21日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》推动科技金融举措先行先试,例如,支持开展资本市场金融科技创新试点等国家级金融试点、开展银行知识产权质押融资内部评估试点、鼓励开发知识产权智能化评估工具等,提升科技金融支持高水平对外开放能力。

  由于对地区央行降息的预期,以及在全球资产因对美国关税和经济衰退的担忧而受挫时亚洲债券作为避险资产的吸引力,3月份亚洲债券吸引了7个月来单月最大规模的外资流入。

  根据韩国、印度、印度尼西亚、泰国和马来西亚的监管机构及债券市场协会的数据,当月外国投资者净买入了价值71.6亿美元的亚洲地区债券,这是自2024年8月以来单月最大规模的净买入。

  本月早些时候,美国总统唐纳德・特朗普对主要贸易伙伴大幅征关税,加剧了人们对全球经济放缓的担忧。不过,他随后对数十个国家暂缓征收高额关税,期限为90天。

  在特朗普宣布征关税后,出于对经济增长的担忧,印度和菲律宾的央行本月已经下调了利率。

  韩国债券连续第二个月吸引了强劲的资金流入,总计达39.9亿美元,这是自2024年10月以来的最高水平。

  印度债券的净流入额为11.1亿美元,创下7个月来单月最大涨幅。与此同时,印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国债券市场的跨境资金流入分别为9亿美元、7.32亿美元和4.21亿美元。

  澳新银行亚洲研究主管高鸿(KhoonGoh)表示:“90天的关税暂停期提供了一些喘息空间,但无法保证亚洲经济体(中国除外)能否通过谈判获得优惠待遇。”

  “持续存在的不确定性将依然存在,这意味着该地区的投资组合资金流动仍将波动。”

  在疫情管控期间,任天堂的Switch游戏机成为人们急需的一种消遣方式。如今,这家日本视频游戏公司在推出其后续产品时,却面临着残酷贸易战的严峻现实。

  Switch2定于6月5日推出。距离初代Switch的推出已经过去了八年,初代Switch的销量达到了1.5亿台,也证明了那些曾预测家用游戏机将走向衰落的人是错误的。

  虽然贸易战的焦点一直集中在汽车和芯片等行业,但作为《超级马里奥》和《大金刚》游戏的开发商,任天堂也必须应对关税对其业务造成的干扰。

  对于任天堂来说,贸易壁垒让今年最受关注的产品发布之一变得复杂起来,因为Switch2的成功对该公司未来的盈利能力至关重要。

  Switch2的推出将考验任天堂管理其供应链的能力,因为该公司既要努力确保向美国提供充足的货源,同时又要维持449.99美元的售价。

  KantanGames咨询公司的创始人塞尔坎・托托表示:“如果关税真的对他们造成冲击,他们可能仍需要提高Switch2的售价。”

  任天堂在4月2日公布了这款设备的价格和发布日期,就在同一天,美国总统唐纳德・特朗普公布了大规模的进口关税,而任天堂在1月份首次透露了Switch2的相关信息。

  随后,任天堂暂停了美国地区的预购活动,以便评估关税的影响,之后宣布将维持Switch2的定价,并于4月24日开启预购。

  任天堂提高了一些配件的价格,并在一份声明中表示,“未来还可能会根据市场情况进行其他调整”。

  托托称:“配件价格的上涨只能在一定程度上减轻冲击。”

  该公司过去曾经历过供应链中断的情况,而且其生产并不仅限于中国,中国输美商品目前面临着145%的关税。

  伯恩斯坦公司的分析师罗宾・朱表示:“在正常需求预期下,任天堂计划从越南和柬埔寨的工厂向美国供货。”

  越南和柬埔寨也受到了关税的影响,不过较高的关税已暂停征收90天。

  美国是任天堂的一个主要市场,在截至3月的财年中,美洲地区的销售额占任天堂总销售额的44%。

  里昂证券的分析师杰伊・德菲博表示:“即使在最糟糕的情况下,即任天堂在越南面临46%的报复性关税,在柬埔寨面临49%的报复性关税,我认为他们也将不得不承担这些成本。”

  安培分析公司预测,2025年Switch2在全球的销量为1320万台,其中在美国的销量为460万台。

  安培分析公司的分析师皮尔斯・哈丁-罗尔斯表示:“我认为在北美地区,Switch2的销售势头不会受到影响。”

  专家表示,即使价格更高,核心粉丝也会购买Switch2,但价格上涨可能会导致普通玩家的需求减少,而正是这些普通玩家让初代Switch大获成功。

  新游戏硬件的标价被视为决定其成功与否的最重要因素之一,初代Switch的价格也曾受到密切关注。

  玩家们一直在抱怨,与初代Switch相比,Switch2的价格上涨了50%,而且像售价79.99美元的《马里奥赛车世界》这样的新软件价格也更高。

  一些分析师认为,Switch2的标价已经考虑到了贸易战带来的不确定性。

  里昂证券的德菲博表示:“任天堂在供应链管理方面有着丰富的经验。”

  科技巨头纷纷涉足游戏领域以及移动游戏的发展,这让一些观察人士对大型游戏硬件的需求产生了质疑。

  然而,任天堂和索尼在该行业中仍然占据着领先地位。

  本月早些时候,索尼提高了其PlayStation5(PS5)在欧洲和英国的售价,一些分析师预计其在美国也会提价。

  PS5推出时受到了新冠疫情的影响,在其销售周期早期的销量不佳。

  分析师们总体上对Switch2的前景持乐观态度,它延续了前代产品的特点,拥有更大的屏幕和更好的图形效果。

  安培分析公司的哈丁-罗尔斯表示:“玩家们对更强大的Switch游戏体验有着大量被压抑的需求。”

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