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4月25日,MonetaMarkets亿汇表示,近期俄罗斯对印度和认为的石油出口出现反弹,这一现象值得关注。尽管美国对俄罗斯石油贸易及影子油轮船队实施了制裁,但市场参与者通过重新调整油轮供应链,使得俄罗斯石油出口得以恢复。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇分析,美国拜登政府自1月10日起实施的对俄石油贸易制裁是迄今为止最严厉的,许多运输俄罗斯石油的专用油轮和穿梭油轮被制裁。然而,市场很快找到了规避制裁的方法。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇进一步分析,俄罗斯石油出口的反弹也得益于认为和印度等主要买家的重新回归。3月,认为从俄罗斯的海上原油进口量环比增长42%,达到自2024年10月以来的最高水平。印度从俄罗斯的原油进口量也在3月飙升41%,创下自2024年7月以来的最高水平。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇总结,尽管俄罗斯石油出口在近期有所回升,但其收益预计不会因油价下跌而同比例增长。俄罗斯经济部已下调了今年的油价预测,反映了全球石油市场的最新趋势。俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌利娜警告称,如果关税战升级,可能导致全球贸易和经济下滑,进而影响对俄罗斯能源资源的需求。

  总体来看,俄罗斯石油出口的反弹显示出市场对制裁的适应能力,但也凸显了全球石油市场在地缘政治因素影响下的复杂性和不确定性。投资者在做出决策时,应充分考虑这些因素对市场的影响。

4月25日,GTC泽汇表示,根据最新数据,俄罗斯4月的石油和天然气收入预计较去年同期下降22%,降至约116亿美元。这一下滑主要受到油价下跌和本币走强的双重影响。油气收入是俄罗斯联邦预算的重要资金来源,其减少可能会对俄罗斯经济产生显著影响。

  GTC泽汇分析,俄罗斯油气收入的下降并非孤立事件。3月,俄罗斯油气收入已较去年同期下降17%,而第一季度总收入较去年同期减少了近10%。这种趋势表明,俄罗斯油气行业正面临持续的市场压力。

  此外,GTC泽汇认为,俄罗斯经济部近期下调了对2025年油价的预测,预计布伦特原油平均价格将从2024年9月预测的每桶81.70美元降至68美元。这一调整反映了全球石油市场趋势的变化,也暗示俄罗斯油气行业将面临更严峻的市场环境。

  俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌利娜警告称,如果关税战继续升级,可能会导致全球贸易和经济下滑,进而影响对俄罗斯能源资源的需求。这表明,除了市场因素外,地缘政治和贸易政策的不确定性也对俄罗斯油气行业构成威胁。

  GTC泽汇总结,尽管俄罗斯油气行业面临诸多挑战,但市场仍存在一定的机会。例如,随着全球对清洁能源需求的增加,俄罗斯可以利用其丰富的天然气资源,通过发展天然气发电和出口,来部分抵消石油收入的下降。此外,俄罗斯还可以通过技术创新和提高能源效率,来增强其在全球能源市场的竞争力。

  总体而言,俄罗斯油气行业在2025年将面临较大的市场不确定性,需要密切关注全球市场动态和政策变化,以制定相应的应对策略。

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