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  德意志银行预计美元未来几年将陷入结构性下行趋势并兑欧元跌至十多年来的最低水平。

  策略师GeorgeSaravelos和TimBaker表示,美国关税的负面影响加上德国的财政刺激以及对华盛顿在世界舞台上角色的重估将导致投资者抛售美国资产并拖累美元走低。

  本周早些时候的美元跌至16个月低点,因美国政策不确定性加剧引发了市场对其世界储备货币地位的质疑。彭博美元即期汇率指数4月重挫近4%,迈向两年多来最大单月跌幅。

  “美元开启大幅下行趋势的前提条件已经具备,”德意志银行研究部的策略师们在报告中写道,“鉴于过去几个月的历史性发展,我们对欧元/美元的预测现在指向美元进入一个漫长的下行周期。”

  德银现在预计,欧元兑美元在2027年底前升至1.30。这是2014年以来未见的水平,也远高于彭博调查得到的预测中值1.15。

  该行还预计日元兑美元将升至115,即2022年以来的最高水平。就在一个月前,德银对欧元和日元的目标分别为1.15和125。

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