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香港特别行政区

  日本超长期国债在上月吸引了创纪录的外国资金流入,原因是美国关税政策引发避险情绪升温,增强了日本超长期国债作为避险资产的吸引力。根据日本证券商协会周一公布的最新数据,全球基金在3月净买入2.18万亿日元(约合155亿美元)的初始期限均超过10年的日本国债;所有期限的日本国债的净买入规模为6.03万亿日元,为2004年以来的第二高水平。

  由于特朗普政府的关税政策引发了市场波动,对日本国债的需求自3月以来一直在上升。另外,据日本财务省提供的初步周度数据显示,本月外国资金买入日本国债的规模依然较大。

  在以往发生风险事件时,美债往往会成为资金的避风港。但在此次全球市场震荡之际,美债遭遇大规模抛售并被视为风险源,直接原因可能是美债的流动性和基差交易的去杠杆,更本质的原因是美国政府滥施关税的行为令美国信用大幅下降以及对美国通胀上升的担忧,投资者纷纷抛售美债。因此,资金纷纷转向包括日本国债、日元、黄金在内的其他避险资产。

  相比之下,日本本土保险公司在3月售出了创纪录的6458亿日元的超长期日本国债。数据显示,日本30年期国债在3月中旬升至2006年以来的最高水平,随后在本月进一步攀升,原因是日本央行放缓了对超长期国债的购买,且美国国债波动加剧扰乱了全球债券市场。

  不过,瑞穗证券公司首席策略师ShokiOmori表示:“买家的稀缺以及美国长期国债收益率的上升可能会阻碍对日本超长期国债的积极投资。3月恰逢日本财政年度结束,在此期间投资者通常会调整资产负债表。”

  日本本土保险公司对超长期日本国债的态度不尽相同。TaijuLifeInsurance上周表示,尽管30年期和40年期日本国债的收益率颇具吸引力,但市场尚未企稳。DaidoLifeInsurance计划在4月开始的本财年增持日本国债,增持幅度与上一财年大致相同。而FukokuMutualLifeInsurance则计划在本财政年度投资日本超长期国债,并正在考虑将债券投资规模从美债等庞大的外国债券中转移至日本。

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