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冯晓文三级-心动与禁忌交织的爱恨情仇
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冯晓文三级-心动与禁忌交织的爱恨情仇

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  全球顶级资管机构RBCBlueBayAssetManagement表示,特朗普的贸易战可能会摧毁人们对美元数十年来的信任和信誉。因此,该机构开设了美元空头头寸,押注“美国例外论”将终结。

  由于担心特朗普的贸易关税将对经济、消费者收入和市场产生影响,美元一直在下跌,这表明投资者对美国的“例外主义”或其作为全球金融体系基石的地位表示怀疑。

  4月份迄今,美元兑其他六种主要货币的汇率指数下跌了4%,这将是自2022年以来最糟糕的月度表现。与此同时,美国长期债券收益率仍接近17个月高点。通常,较高的债券收益率对美元有利。但这一次,随着越来越多的投资者质疑美元的避险地位和在全球金融体系中的核心作用,两者之间传统的正相关水平为三年来最弱。

  包括JensNaervigPedersen在内的丹麦银行A/S分析师在一份报告中写道:“美元、收益率和传统风险指标之间的混乱令人震惊,越来越让人想起过去的压力事件。”

  Pedersen称,上周是50多年来第三次美元下跌超过2.5%,但10年期美国国债收益率上涨至少25个基点。其他两次分别是在1985年7月——实施让美元贬值的广场协议期间,以及2009年5月。他说,这两次事件“之后都是美元持续疲软”。期权市场表明,交易员正在为这种情况做准备。

  期权头寸显示,交易员预计美元将进一步下跌。彭博美元现货指数上周创下自2022年11月以来的最大跌幅,并在本周延续了跌势。DepositoryTrust&ClearingCorp.的数据显示,过去一周约有三分之二的期权交易是押注美元兑欧元、日元和瑞郎走软。

  RBCBlueBay现在也转为看空美元,该机构曾在年初做多美元,随后在第一季度中期平仓。RBCBlueBay固定收益团队首席投资官MarkDowding在接受采访时表示:“上周初,我们还在抛售美元。美国的政策制定失去了可信度,特朗普的关税政策感觉上没有经过深思熟虑。”

  特朗普反复的关税威胁导致美国股票、债券和货币价格大幅波动,引发了美元和美国国债能否保持避险地位的争论。Dowding表示:“我们认为,它最终可能会为美元的价值带来一个更长期的转折点。”

  Dowding说,欧洲和日本投资者现在更关注国内资产,而不是将资金投入美国。目前,该基金看好日元,并押注日元将升至1美元兑135日元的水平,较目前水平上涨近6%,因日元被低估,且海外的资本正在回流日本。

  Dowding还认为,美联储近期不太可能降息,因关税可能扰乱供应链,造成短缺并推高通胀。Dowding补充道:“我们将继续看到公债价格波动,正在等待一个良好的进场点。如果美国10年期国债收益率跌破4.2%,我就想卖出;如果超过4.8%,我就想买进。”

  在其他交易中,他已经开始购买美国和欧洲的通胀挂钩债券。他说:“我们认为今年美国的通胀率将达到4%。”

  韩国现代汽车公司周四表示,将于今年晚些时候在美国推出全新的Palisade运动型多用途车(SUV)。

  时隔6年改版的第二代“Palisade”SUV从今年1月开始在韩国国内上市。现代汽车在正在举行的纽约国际车展(newYorkInternationalAutoShow)上展出了这款新款旗舰SUV,并将于今年下半年在美国推出。

  该公司在一份新闻稿中表示,针对美国市场,新款Palisade配备了3.5升汽油发动机或2.5升涡轮增压汽油混合动力发动机。

  在韩国国内,已经推出了2.5升涡轮汽油发动机和2.5升涡轮汽油混合动力发动机版本。

  现代汽车还在此次车展上发布了越野驾驶专用车型“PalisadeXRTPro”。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  中金发布研报称,基于腾讯控股(00700)广告和云计算的收入增长,该行此前分别上调2025/2026年收入1%及2%,至7,172亿及7,576亿人民币,维持2025/2026年Non-IFRS净利润预测不变,维持“跑赢行业”评级。由于市场估值中枢上移,此前已上调目标价8.5%至600港元,对应预测今年Non-IFRS市盈率20.6倍。

  游戏业务方面:去年第四季游戏收入快速提升,上季收入同比增20%至492亿人民币,超该行预期3%,其中海外游戏收入同比增15%,《PUBGM》及Supercell《荒野乱斗》等游戏表现强劲;国内游戏收入同比增23%,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《DNF手游》等游戏驱动。该行认为腾讯以长青游戏为重要战略(2024年有14款长青游戏),将有利于游戏稳健持续增长,该行预计今年首季游戏收入同比增15%。

  腾讯AI布局战略:(1)大模型端,腾讯将坚持自研混元大模型和外部开源模型进行最佳协同;(2)坚持多模型策略打造ToC(面向消费者)产品,公司表示多种模型的组合比单一模型更能处理复杂任务,腾讯为新的AI应用(如元宝和微信AI)提供积极推理支持;(3)企业服务端,通过AI赋能向外部客户提供云服务(如IaaS、PaaS、SaaS业务);(4)赋能现有业务,腾讯基于AI优化了广告技术、游戏及视频和音乐中的内容生成、推荐等用户体验。该行观察到使用元宝、微信AI的用户正快速提升中,该行认为,腾讯依托强大的社交生态资源,或有可能在AI发展初期,基于其用户渠道优势抢先在AIToC应用创新赛道上取得成果。

  资本开支方面:公司2024全年投入资本开支768亿人民币,公司指引2025年将投入低双位数占收入比的资本开支。面对AI长期机遇,公司正尽力平衡AI资本开支与即期股东回报,以求长期股东回报最大化:公司2024年实际分红320亿港元;2024年完成1,120亿港元回购。而公司宣布在2025年增加年度股息32%至410亿港元,同时计划至少回购价值800亿港元的股份。

  4月17日金融一线消息,财政部拟发行2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债(一期)(5年期),本次发行国债竞争性招标面值总额1650亿元,不进行甲类成员追加投标,票面利率通过竞争性招标确定。本期国债自2025年4月25日开始计息,每年支付利息,付息日为每年4月25日(节假日顺延),2030年4月25日偿还本金并支付最后一次利息。招标时间为2025年4月24日上午10:35至11:35。

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