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  自2021年推出广受欢迎的减肥药Wegovy以来,诺和诺德每年多次上调年度销售指引。然而,近期美国处方数据的疲软令部分投资者和分析师怀疑,这一助推诺和诺德跃居欧洲市值最高上市公司(巅峰期达6150亿美元)的强劲势头是否正走向终点。

  今年2月,这家丹麦制药商预测,在恒定汇率下,2025年销售额增幅为16%-24%,增速远低于前几年。

  六位分析师和投资者表示,即便是这一目标也可能不再现实,公司或在5月7日发布一季度业绩时下调指引。诺和诺德2月曾表示,其已增加Wegovy在美国的供应以满足激增需求,并称指引已反映这一调整。

  然而,分析师引用的IQVIA数据显示,自2月中旬以来,美国Wegovy的周处方量趋于平稳。与此同时,礼来的减肥注射剂Zepbound竞争加剧——截至4月11日当周,其处方量超出Wegovy12.8万例。诺和诺德及其竞争对手还面临产品被卷入美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战的风险。

  尽管伦敦证交所集团(LSEG)的25位分析师共识预测显示,诺和诺德2025年销售额预计增长19%,但美国银行分析师预计,该公司可能将指引下调至14%-22%,这将是自2021年以来最弱增速。持有诺和诺德股票的百达资产管理(BellevueAssetManagement)投资经理LukasLeu表示:“我对诺和诺德持高度谨慎态度,指引下调的可能性确实存在。”

  在竞争白热化的减肥药市场,投资者对诺和诺德抗衡礼来的能力感到担忧,加之其新一代药物CagriSema的临床试验数据不及预期,自去年12月初以来,公司市值已蒸发2300亿美元(跌幅达45%)。

  部分分析师预计,若美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)严格执行对仿制药的禁令,Wegovy和糖尿病药物Ozempic的处方量或会回升。诺和诺德称,该禁令可能将需求转向其正版产品。

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