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西藏自治区

SAP公司(SAP.US)第一季度业绩。Q1总收入达到90.13亿欧元,同比增长12%(按固定汇率计算增长11%)。调整后的营业利润增至25亿欧元,同比增长60%(按固定汇率计算为58%),合每股1.44欧元,高于市场预期,证明了SAP云业务模式的可扩展性。按固定汇率计算的云计算收入增长26%,至49.9亿欧元。业绩公布后,截至发稿,该公司股价美股盘后大涨9.69%,报276.87美元。

云计算收入为49.93亿欧元,同比增长27%(按固定汇率计算为26%),预期为50.5亿欧元。该公司的云计算积压增长至182.02亿欧元,同比增长28%(按固定汇率计算为29%),表明未来收入潜力巨大。积压订单反映了未来12个月的销售额。

SAP的企业资源规划软件——用于记账、采购和人力资源——通常要求客户签订合同,从而锁定稳定的收入流。去年,SAP85%的销售额来自经常性收入,这有助于SAP免受特朗普政府全面征收关税造成的经济动荡的影响。该公司还在2024年初开始进行企业改革,裁员,帮助提振利润。

展望未来,SAP表示,尽管在持续的贸易战中,2025财年可能会出现“不确定性上升和可视性降低”,但该公司仍预计全年云和软件收入将在331亿至336亿欧元之间。云收入预计为216亿欧元和219亿欧元。不过,SAP补充称,按固定汇率计算,目前的云计算积压量增长预计将在2025年略有放缓。

虽然SAP没有受到美国关税的直接影响,但其客户可能已经对经济的不确定性做出了反应。摩根士丹利分析师本月对30家SAP经销商进行的一项调查显示,第一季度SAP许可证和云订阅业务的增长均有所放缓。增长放缓主要是由其最大市场美国推动的。

在周二晚些时候的电话会议上,首席财务官DominikAsam表示,贸易战加剧可能会导致“严重的全球衰退”。他说:“我想强调的是,我们的展望并非基于如此不利的情况,而是假设转化率与前几年保持一致。考虑到事态加剧的风险,我们仍然完全专注于纪律的执行和保障,包括我们的利润和自由现金流。”

SAP首席执行官ChristianKlein说,每个人都在密切关注未来90天的局势。Klein已经优先考虑公司向基于订阅的云业务模式转变,这样每个客户的平均支出更高。在他的领导下,该公司正在大力推广云中的人工智能业务服务,以激励客户从传统的服务器切换。

与其他一些欧洲科技巨头相比,与赛富时(CRM.US)竞争的SAP受美国贸易壁垒的直接影响较小。例如,阿斯麦(ASML.US)上周公布第一季度订单比预期低近10亿欧元,并警告称,最近关税公告的影响仍不明朗。

投资机构CFRA认为,积压订单这包括了日益增长的人工智能相关订单,称该公司是关税不确定时期,科技股的“一艘稳定的船舶”。SAP展现出强大的执行力,云毛利率扩大250个基点至75.0%,推动整体毛利率改善至73.6%(超过其预期的72.9%)。与此同时,可预测收入的份额增加至86%。CFRA认为SAP在2027年前有望实现10%-13%的收入增长,这与其之前的预期一致,预计2025年的云收入增长在26%-28%之间,2027年也将保持类似水平。在CFRA看来,云和软件销售的组合将在未来三年推动高度重复的收入流实现11%-13%的年度增长,随着云规模效益的实现,预计自由现金流将实现14%-16%的增长。

此外,2023年5月,SAP宣布了一项总额高达50亿欧元的股票回购计划,回购期限至2025年12月31日。截至3月31日,SAP以164.79欧元的平均价格回购了1898.5万股股票,根据该计划,回购金额约为31亿欧元。该计划的第三部分已于4月8日完成,购买量约为15亿欧元。

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