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  财联社4月15日讯(记者彭科峰)“对等关税”风波下,外贸相关业务面对的扰动对银行的影响会有多大?或许,我们可以从各大银行年报中略知一二。

  财联社记者查询多家银行年报发现,尽管在细分行业信贷数据披露上较为有限,但工商银行、中国银行等多家银行均对该行去年外贸相关业务、海外布局等进行了一定程度的介绍。

  工、中、建、交、招行年报披露外贸相关业务情况

  工商银行2024年报显示,该行去年服务贸易强国建设,扎实履行“春融行动2024”服务承诺,全力支持内外贸一体化发展,累计为境内重点外贸外资企业发放表内外融资4.8万亿元。优化跨境电商综合金融服务,为支付机构、跨境电商等新业态办理业务2,731.74亿元,比上年增长33.8%,服务超10万家中小微商户。持续推广海关“单一窗口”金融服务,促进贸易便利化,2024年办理跨境汇款64.87亿美元。

  中国银行2024年报显示,在外贸方面,去年该行跨境电商结算产品“中银跨境e商通”全年交易额8133.27亿元,同比增长39.82%,在市场中处于领先地位,其中跨境人民币交易规模7,422.65亿元;合作客户数51家,头部客户覆盖度超过80%。此外,跨境结算业务量稳质升,领先优势进一步巩固。2024年,境内机构国际结算量、跨境人民币结算量分别超过4万亿美元和16万亿元,均居市场首位;跨境电商结算规模同比增长约40%。

  建行在2024年报中指出,该行高效服务实体经济,为外贸外资企业提供综合金融服务,全年实现贸易融资投放量2.15万亿元,较上年增长17.86%;国际收支量1.56万亿美元,较上年增长11.40%;“跨境快贷”系列产品累计为小微外贸企业提供融资支持373.55亿元。

  交通银行年报披露,该行创新优化丝路电商/跨境电商平台跨境结算业务,支持亚马逊等电商平台的外贸小微商户凭交易电子信息实现出口收汇。涉外保函支持境内企业稳健“走出去”和共建“一带一路”。报告期内,开立涉外保函业务量同比增长99.37%,其中,开往“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的涉外保函业务量同比增长115.10%。累计落地外贸新业态项目24个,业务量同比增长40.08%。报告期内,交行国际结算量5,124.99亿美元,同比增长0.56%。

  招商银行2024年报显示,报告期内,该行以打造客户跨境业务“主结算行”与核心客户“全球主办行”为目标,夯实跨境客群基础,完善产品服务体系,升级经营服务能力。报告期内实现对公涉外收支业务量4,256.11亿美元,同比增长19.26%。

  从上述信息来看,上述几家全国性商业银行在跨境融资等方面有一定的规模。那么,“对等关税”风波之后,各大银行有无最新应对措施?是否会影响二季度的信贷投放?今日,财联社记者就此联系数家国有大行,但均被告知“不便回应”。

  多家城商行反馈影响不大,但仍需观察

  “客观来说,跨境贸易业务、国际结算应该是近些年大中型银行尤其是上市银行的发力方向之一。这次的关税风波的影响目前还需要观察,不好下结论。”某华东地区城商行人士告诉财联社记者,该行前几年上市以后,也曾经打算开设海外分支机构拓展业务,但因为监管等方面的原因而中止。

  在财联社记者近期调研中,至少两家上市城商行内部人士告诉财联社记者,初步判断关税风波对该行的全年营收、利润等影响有限。

  近期不少机构发布的研报,则基本认为关税风波对银行业的扰动有限,核心逻辑是传导链条较长。

  比如,中泰证券在近期发布的研报中指出,“对等关税”对我国银行业的影响包括:在经济层面,外需走弱,出口相关企业经营承压,银行相关客群的信贷需求、贷款利率、资产质量面临压力,但不同客群差异较大。在政策层面,政策宽松加码,内需领域政策可能对零售信贷需求有提振,降准降息降低银行资金成本。在投资层面,银行板块红利价值提升,有助于资本补充。

  中金公司银行团队在近期研报中指出,历史经验来看,出口增速下滑时期国内通常出台更多的对冲性政策,包括增加基建投资、放松房地产限制等,本轮经济刺激政策更加强调改善居民收入、促进消费。对于国企和基建敞口占比相对更高的国有大行和区域银行而言,资产质量表现相对更加稳健,对于位于沿海省份、出口产业链敞口占比较高的区域银行资产质量影响相对较大。

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