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  随着公募基金2025年一季报密集披露,首批科技主题基金调仓动向浮出水面。

  券商中国记者梳理发现,永赢、中欧、长城等基金公司旗下产品一季度继续加码AI产业链布局,信息技术与制造业成重仓方向。面对市场对AI应用商业化提速的期待,基金经理普遍认为,AIAgent(人工智能代理)、大模型迭代及机器人量产节奏将成为影响市场走势的关键变量。

  基金经理预判,当前市场AIAgent的商业化突破进一步加快,大模型智能化持续迭代被低估,人形机器人量产及短期增长能力被阶段性高估。

  调仓曝光!公募重仓AI全链条

  4月15日,中欧基金、永赢基金、长城基金等公募基金公司旗下部分权益类基金产品一季报出炉。

  券商中国记者梳理发现,永赢信息产业智选混合主要聚焦信息技术领域布局,前十大重仓股中9只股票属于信息技术行业,合计占基金资产净值比例达40.69%。

  前十大重仓股涵盖ERP龙头金蝶国际、数据库企业达梦数据、工业软件新星鼎捷数智等,分别占基金资产净值比例5.54%、4.72%和4.12%,覆盖AI应用、基础软件、算力基础设施等细分领域。叠加港股通标的中的信息技术配置,全基金信息技术板块持仓占比近五成,彰显对AI产业链的深度布局。

  中欧基金冯炉丹管理的中欧数字经济混合在一季度维持了较高仓位运作,冯炉丹重点关注AI应用、机器人及智能驾驶、国产AI产业链、AI基础设施以及端侧AI五大核心赛道。

  中欧数字经济混合前十大重仓股中,信息技术类占据五席:腾讯控股、芯原股份、恒玄科技、翱捷科技、阿里巴巴-w合计占比30.08%;汽车智能化领域布局小鹏汽车-w、越疆合计占比12.8%。

  在组合配置上,冯炉丹降低了智能机器人相关标的权重,同时加大了AI应用场景、推理侧基础设施的布局力度。此外,在国产AI产业链方面,从第三方采购方案向大型科技企业自研产业链倾斜。

  长城基金尤国梁管理的长城久嘉创新成长混合保留了部分国产AI算力相关仓位,并基于DeepSeek大模型开源对国内AI应用端发展的显著推动,进一步增加了AI电子终端、智能驾驶及“AI+”等AI应用相关品种的权重。

  具体来看,前十大重仓股中,制造业企业占据七个席位,包括源杰科技、经纬恒润、沃格光电等,覆盖芯片设计、汽车电子、光学元件等细分领域,合计占比31.85%。莱斯信息、纳睿雷达、寒武纪等AI企业也上榜,聚焦AI终端、雷达传感、算力芯片等方向,合计占比13.36%。

  从上述披露的公募基金一季报来看,一季度对AI产业链的配置呈现两大特征:一是信息技术板块占比普遍超四成,港股通标的成为重要补充;二是从上游算力向下游应用扩散,AI终端、具身智能等场景获重点加仓。

  仓位调整透露三大预判

  面对AI市场的剧烈波动,多位基金经理在一季报中阐述了最新研判。中欧基金冯炉丹指出,当前AI产业正面临三大关键转折:

  一是,AIAgent(人工智能代理)的商业化突破:未来一年AI代理有望从概念走向实际应用落地。与传统Chatbot(聊天机器人)不同,这类程序能够独立运行、进行多步推理并完成复杂任务,商业模式更为清晰,变现路径更为直接。

  二是,大模型智能化持续迭代被低估:基座模型在今年下半年的大版本更新值得期待。市场普遍低估了大模型智能化的持续演进能力,尤其是强化学习领域仍存在巨大潜力和提升空间,可能催生新的训练范式突破。

  三是,智能机器人的发展节奏需再评估:智能机器人的长期市场空间毋庸置疑,但量产及短期增长能力被阶段性高估。当前数据积累仍是主要瓶颈,参照智能驾驶技术的发展历程,人形机器人在真实场景中的落地难度更大,商业化进程可能较市场预期更为漫长。

  “展望未来,我们相信,中国企业有能力站到全球人工智能浪潮的前沿。我们期待看到更多在基础研发端实现重大创新突破的企业,也期待更多公司能够在商业层面率先构建清晰、独特且富有竞争力的AI叙事。”冯炉丹表示。

  永赢基金经理王文龙同样提示,面对AI应用这样一个具有长期向好逻辑的板块,单纯地追高或在市场波动时恐慌离场都不是最优策略。投资者在初次接触相关行业时,不妨将其纳入关注列表,深入了解和研究该行业及工具型产品的风险收益特征,基于真正看好时再做出投资决策,而不要仅仅因为热度高就跟风购买。若看好板块未来发展,可以考虑采用定投方式与行业共同成长,熨平短期波动,力争享受行业长期发展的红利。同时,也希望大家能够适当分散投资,从更理性、更长期的角度做好资产配置,不要把资金全部押注到单一产品。

  中欧基金杜厚良则从产业链利润分配角度分析,认为AI将对移动互联网带来变革,其中之一便是改变移动互联网时代各环节的利润分配模式。举个例子,美国某消费终端公司的手机销量在近十多年内虽有所下滑,但利润却增长了约三倍。主要原因是它依靠“平台税”,成为移动互联网时代最大的受益者之一。在AI时代,所谓的“平台税”将转移到大模型入口厂商,并且由于垂类应用的UI交互减少,入口厂商潜在可分得的利润比例会更高。此外,当前单位算力成本快速下降,推理需求加速增长,这些大模型厂商的云业务阶段性投资回报率(ROI)也将稳步提升。从短期和长期来看,这些厂商均会受益。

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