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来源:河南日报

涨!涨!涨!

4月21日上午

现货黄金继续冲高

站上3380美元/盎司

再创历史新高

日内涨约1.5%

上期所黄金期货主力合约

突破800元/克关口

再创历史新高

现涨1.85%

连续第十一个交易日上涨

今年迄今累计涨近30%

金饰价格方面,主要品牌足金饰品报价全线破千。4月21日,周大福、六福珠宝报价1039元/克,老凤祥报价1038元/克,周生生黄金报价1034元/克。

股票市场方面,今日早盘A股贵金属板块大幅走强。截至上午10时左右,晓程科技涨超10%,赤峰黄金涨超6%,湖南白银、西部黄金涨超5%。

机构报告显示,3月全球黄金ETF持仓增量创2022年3月以来新高,全球持仓规模增加91吨,其中北美市场增持74吨、欧洲市场增持13吨,为主要需求来源。4月前两周,亚洲市场加入增持队伍、累计增持32吨,叠加北美市场继续增持25吨,全球黄金ETF持仓规模进一步增加。

金价飙涨!上金所紧急通知

值得注意的是,在金价屡创新高之际,相关品种的高位波动风险不容忽视。上期所前期已调整了黄金期货风控参数。自2025年4月10日(星期四)收盘结算时起,黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为11%,套保交易保证金比例调整为12%,投机交易保证金比例调整为13%。

4月21日,上海黄金交易所发布“关于继续做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知”称,近期贵金属价格波动剧烈,请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。

未来黄金价格会继续上涨吗?

中金公司分析认为,全球宏观环境不确定性抬升,黄金避险价值继续彰显。全球黄金ETF持仓持续增加,背后或主要反映欧美市场在宏观环境高度不确定性之际增加对避险资产的配置诉求。3月美国经济政策不确定性指数升至2020年初以来高位,欧洲经济政策不确定性指数升至2000年以来新高。短期看,全球宏观环境的不确定性可能继续主导黄金价格。

中国银行研究院研究员吴丹表示,作为传统避险资产,黄金的长期配置价值依然稳固,看涨头寸仍在高位,且主流资金未实质性减弱对黄金的战略配置。

中信建投期货研究发展部分析师王彦青表示,总体来看,美国关税政策远超市场预期,全球经济下行担忧席卷市场。王彦青认为,目前,全球贸易摩擦仍无缓和迹象,日本、欧盟或难对美让步,美国还计划对中国建造船只加征“港口费”。欧洲央行如期降息25个基点,特朗普再度炮轰美联储未能及时降息,并提及罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的想法,但若采取罢免行动可能使得美联储的独立性遭受质疑。总体来看,贸易摩擦持续,市场避险需求旺盛,贵金属长线支撑稳固。

来源:上海证券报、新华网财经、中国基金报

  4月21日,贵州茅台大宗交易成交1600股,成交额248.16万元,占当日总成交额的0.09%,成交价1551元,较市场收盘价1551元持平。

  A股今日发力上扬,沪指一度逼近3300点,深证成指、创业板指等涨超1%,全A成交额增加逾1200亿元,重返万亿元上方。港股今日因假期休市。

  具体来看,两市主要股指盘中震荡上扬,深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数等涨超1%,北证50指数涨近3%。截至收盘,沪指涨0.45%报3291.43点,深证成指涨1.27%报9905.53点,创业板指涨1.59%报1944.32点,北证50指数涨2.63%,沪深北三市合计成交10738亿元,较此前一日增加1245亿元。

  场内超4300股飘红,汽车产业链股拉升,雷迪克涨超11%,浙江荣泰、海联金汇、金杯汽车等涨停;造纸板块走强,可靠股份、顺灏股份、安妮股份(维权)、百亚股份等涨停;医药板块上扬,舒泰神、迪哲医药等涨停,立方制药斩获5连板;黄金概念股爆发,四川黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金、西部黄金等涨停;大飞机概念崛起,博云新材、润贝航科、航发科技等涨停;人形机器人概念再度活跃,万达轴承、奥比中光等涨超10%,福莱新材涨停。

  值得注意的是,多只黄金主题ETF大涨,黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF罕见涨停,黄金股票ETF基金涨超9%。

  黄金概念爆发

  黄金概念股盘中大幅飙升,截至收盘,四川黄金、潮宏基、赤峰黄金、鹏欣资源、湖南黄金、西部黄金等涨停。

  今日盘中,现货黄金突破3390美元/盎司,再创历史新高。沪金主力合约涨逾2%,史上首次站至800元/克关口上方。

  中信建投证券指出,美国所谓的“对等关税”下,COMEX金价不断刷新历史纪录,做多黄金成了投资者的一致选择。美国政府反复不定,除了催生的避险需求外,还削弱了市场对美元资产的信任,导致美债遭受抛售、美元指数大幅下挫。可以说所谓“对等关税”的霸权主义正在加速全球“去美元化”,导致全球央行加大对黄金的净买入,2022年—2024年全球央行年购金数量均超1000吨。全球央行叠加投资者的买入力量令金价呈现易涨难跌、重心不断上行的格局。

  平安证券认为,美联储主席鲍威尔日前表示,特朗普的关税政策让经济面临很高的不确定性,美联储要等到形势更明朗再考虑降息,要避免关税持久推升通胀,鲍威尔表态一定程度表现出对美国滞胀的担忧。另外特朗普周内就美联储降息多次向鲍威尔施压,或希望通过降息以减轻其关税政策所带来的通胀影响。特朗普政策反复可能带来黄金短期波动率走高,但海外宏观不确定性持续,中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。另外长期来看,特朗普上任后,美元信用走弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰,黄金货币属性加速凸显,持续看好黄金中长期走势。

  大飞机概念拉升

  大飞机概念盘中强势拉升,截至收盘,通易航天涨超16%,博云新材、国睿科技、润贝航科、航发科技等涨停。

  消息面上,今日一架即将交付的波音737Max飞机从舟山波音完工中心起飞,目的地是波音总装厂所在地西雅图。

  舟山波音完工中心主要用于波音737MAX系列飞机的外饰喷漆及交付。由于“对等关税”,国内航司开始暂停接收波音飞机。

  此外,近日,中国与越南和马来西亚分别发布了两份联合声明,其中都提到了“引进和运营中国商用飞机”。其中,中马联合声明中提及双方将加强各方面合作,支持马来西亚的航空公司引进和运营中国商用飞机。另外,据报道,4月16日,越南政府签发有关民用航空领域的第89号议定,在进口飞机合格证签发机构纳入中国民用航空局。

  方正证券指出,目前我国的C909飞机已经出海多个东南亚国家,如老挝、印尼等;C919也在加速海外认证。由于原供应商波音和空中巴士交付飞机的延误,目前亚洲范围内受到“飞机荒”困扰的不只是越南,还有印度和东盟等快速增长的新兴客运市场,这些国家或也在考虑引入第三家飞机供应商,因此判断国产大飞机未来在东南亚的潜在市场较大。

  人形机器人概念活跃

  人形机器人概念再度活跃,截至收盘,震裕科技涨超13%,万达轴承、奥比中光、利亚德等涨超10%,福莱新材涨停,鸣志电器涨近9%。

  消息面上,4月19日,北京亦庄人机共跑半程马拉松在北京南海子公园开跑,20支人形机器人战队和1.2万名跑者共同参赛。天工Ultra以2时40分42秒自主跑完半马夺得人形机器人半马冠军,松延动力N2人形机器人获得亚军。

  中信建投证券认为,经过马拉松赛事的长距离、长时间的测试,人形机器人核心零部件的性能和可靠性、整机稳定性得到进一步提升。人形机器人作为具身智能的最佳载体,是中美AI科技竞争的主战场,长期空间广阔。建议不拘泥于“人形”深度挖掘“AI+机器人”的投资机会,比如外骨骼机器人、灵巧手和传感器这三个方向的商业化落地更快,这些方向的放量节奏不以人形机器人放量为必然前提,并且后续有望能够得到持续的数据验证。

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