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  尽管特朗普政策声势浩大,但实际数据显示,美国经济似乎展现出“免疫”状态。这是因为,多数关税政策在实施后几个月才开始传导至消费者端。此外,美国庞大的经济体使得特朗普政策的影响被“稀释”。

  如果只通过经济数据观察世界,你几乎看不出白宫已换了主人。

  尽管特朗普政策声势浩大,但实际数据显示,美国经济似乎展现出“免疫”状态。就业、通胀、贸易和联邦支出似乎未如预期受严重冲击,反而在某些方面延续了前一阶段的轨迹。

  事实上,美国经济的“韧性”可能只是短暂的幻象。特朗普政策带来的“震动”虽未立即反映在经济数据上,但其长远影响尚未完全显现。多数关税在实施后几个月才开始传导至消费者端。此外,美国庞大的经济体使得特朗普政策的影响被“稀释”。

  4月PMI或将揭示全球经济第一道“伤痕”。本周三(23日),美国制造业投入价格指数尤其值得关注,或揭示关税落地后的成本传导。同时,美联储还将发布经济状况褐皮书,揭示不确定性与关税政策对地区经济的实际影响。

  数据与新闻的巨大反差

  表面上看,美国经济数据表现出令人震惊的“抗干扰”能力。

  一方面,经济学家普遍预期企业招聘将明显放缓,通胀率将明显走高。但另一方面,实际情况是,过去两个月的就业增速保持在每月17.3万左右,与前六个月几乎持平。失业率也仅比前六个月高出0.1个百分点,整体通胀和核心价格压力甚至比之前略低。

  这种表面上的“稳健”让市场陷入迷惑——特朗普政策的“炮火”似乎削弱了,却未能引发预期中的全面崩溃。

  特朗普在上台初期曾宣称能够节省2万亿美元联邦支出,但实际数据显示,80天内联邦支出反而比去年同期多出1540亿美元。一些政策如裁员目标未达预期:政府效率部门(DOGE)试图缩减10%的联邦员工(约24万),但截至二三月,实际裁员规模仅减少了1万人左右。

  与此同时,虽然特朗普加大了边境执法和遣返力度,但外籍工人数量仍在增长。这表明政策的“点火”作用有限,劳动力市场的韧性远超预期。

  “幻象”的背后:影响因素繁杂

  特朗普的关税措施持续引发市场关注,但事实上,其实际影响持续被“滞后”展现。

  这是因为,多数关税在实施后几个月才开始传导至消费者端。钢铁、铝材的高关税已在3月中旬生效,但价格上涨尚未全面反映。更大规模的关税因企业提前备货和进口商的“库存缓冲”而延迟显现影响。

  这样,“延后”的压力或许只是在未来几个月累积,一旦传导到消费者,将引发价格上涨和市场波动。

  此外,美国庞大的经济体使得特朗普政策的影响被“稀释”。股市的剧烈波动,尤其是科技股的反复,反映了市场对于政策预期的不断调整。

  去年市场的上涨,主要得益于人工智能热潮;而近期特朗普政策的反复,也令投资者情绪动荡。更重要的是,特朗普的政策引发的“反馈机制”——例如油价的下降、消费者价格的意外下滑——都表明,政策的连锁反应复杂而多变。

  特朗普的冲动行为引发了政治和市场的警觉。尽管目前法院对遣返和裁员的部分措施保持遏制,关税等经济核心工具仍未被法律阻断。

  随着贸易谈判和政策多变的可能,企业可能会改变价格和采购策略,市场的“预期管理”成为关键。未来政策波动将更剧烈,投资者应警惕表面平静背后隐藏的巨大变数。

  4月17日,由中关村联新生物医药产业联盟主办的首届全球眼科大会在中关村国家自主创新示范区展示中心举行,鹰瞳科技(Airdoc)受邀出席并获2025全球眼科用户体验奖,CEO常献刚做《万语大模型在医疗健康场景的应用探索》主题演讲。

  

  大会发布了备受瞩目的《2025全球眼科创新年度白皮书》,并颁发了包括全球眼科创新奖、国际合作奖等在内的多项权威奖项,为中关村联新生物医药产业联盟会员授牌。大会还对《北京市支持创新医药高质量发展若干措施(2025年)》《2025年北京市药监局支持创新医药高质量发展措施》《海淀区生物医药产业环境和政策》等进行了深入解读,为行业发展提供了政策指引。在应用场景开放方面,海淀区内医院积极推动创新产品“首试”“首用”,2024年已有包括鹰瞳科技企业在内的8个项目完成部署。

  

  鹰瞳科技(Airdoc)CEO常献刚展示了万语大模型如何在眼底图像、体检、慢病预测等多种场景中发挥能力,并强调数据驱动的医学AI需建立在真实世界场景的“反复验证与迭代”之上。

  “在视网膜影像人工智能领域,鹰瞳科技通过自研AI软硬一体化解决方案,实现了自动拍摄一张眼底照片,AI识别心梗、中风、老年痴呆等心脑血管疾病风险,解决医疗资源不平衡的问题,提升基层医疗机构的眼部疾病诊断能力、慢病防控能力和社区居民健康水平。” CEO常献刚向海淀融媒体中心记者介绍并演示了公司在视网膜影像人工智能领域的最新进展。

  

  在会场外设立的创新成果展示区,有包括北京鹰瞳科技发展股份有限公司在内的海淀区本土创新企业,及来自广州、深圳等地的企业同台竞技,纷纷搭建了精心设计的展台,通过实物展示、视频演示、互动体验等多种形式,向与会人员展示最新的前沿技术和创新产品,为后续的深度合作搭建了桥梁。“通过与同行的交流,我们获得了许多有价值的建议。”一位参展企业负责人表示,“这种面对面的交流机会非常难得。”

  

  本次大会吸引了来自各地的眼科领域专家学者、企业代表及医疗机构负责人共襄盛举,共同探讨眼科医疗技术的最新进展与未来趋势,充分展示了海淀区在生物医药领域,特别是眼科医疗技术创新方面的实力与潜力。

  随着政策支持的持续加码和创新环境的不断完善,海淀区正吸引更多优质医药健康企业集聚发展,为推动全球眼科医疗技术进步贡献“海淀智慧”。鹰瞳科技(Airdoc)亦始终致力于“让健康无处不在”,通过AI让优质医疗资源触手可及,普惠至社会的每一个角落。

  注:图文内容采编自海淀报、思宇MedTech

  每经记者叶峰    每经编辑肖芮冬    

  今日市场低开后震荡反弹,创业板指领涨,沪指逼近3300点关口,场内热门宽基标的A500指数ETF(159351)上涨0.43%,创近两周反弹新高。

  值得注意的是,银行板块延续强劲走势,工农中建交五大行今日盘中再创历史新高,有望带动A股核心资产迎来估值修复。

  截至今日收盘,A500指数ETF(159351)成交24.03亿元,成交额依旧位居全市场同类第三,深市同类第二;全天换手率达16.44%,稳居深市同类第一。

  有券商表示,中国股市估值的主要矛盾正在发生转变,要看到中国的确定性,贴现率下降是2025年中国股市上升的关键动力,接下来,中国股市风险溢价有望系统性下移,而无风险利率下降将成为增量入市的关键一环。随着投资者关于内外部的疑虑消减,中国股市也有望走出升势。

  A500指数ETF(159351)跟踪的中证A500指数,由各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只股票组成,行业分布均衡,偏向大中盘风格,为投资者配置A股代表性公司提供了工具。场外投资者可以通过A500指数ETF联接基金(A类022453;C类022454)布局A股核心资产上行机遇。

  2025年4月15日,银江技术(300020)发布《关于收到行政处罚事先告知书的公告》,经查公司存在以下违规行为:一、银江技术未按规定披露关联方非经营性资金占用,2023年年报和2024年半年报存在虚假记载;二、银江技术未按规定披露关联担保,2018年至2023年年报存在重大遗漏;三、2021年至2023年三季度财务报告存在虚假记载;四、银江技术相关公告文件信息披露不准确、不完整。部分股民或许存在索赔机会。

  北京市盈科(深圳)律师事务所徐劲律师(执业证号14403200610948623)认为,根据证券虚假陈述新司法解释,已明确取消前置程序,投资者因上市公司虚假陈述导致损失,可以向有管辖权的法院提起民事赔偿诉讼以维护自己的合法权益,可索赔损失范围包括投资差额损失、印花税及佣金损失。

  暂定索赔条件:

  于2019年4月19日至2024年4月29日之间买入,并在2024年4月29日以后卖出或继续持有而亏损的投资者(最终以法院判决为准)。

  投资者应准备下列材料:身份证复印件,证券账户开户信息确认单(原件加盖证券公司营业部印章),证券交易记录流水(从首次买入该股票至今并加盖证券公司营业部印章,有库存股的要打印出库存股)。

  (本文由北京市盈科(深圳)律师事务所徐劲律师(执业证号14403200610948623)供稿,不代表新浪财经的立场。徐劲律师擅长在上市公司虚假陈述案件中为股民维权索赔,执业十余年来,曾代理投资者起诉多家上市公司成功索赔。)

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